How Carson Wentz Injury Impacts Indianapolis Colts Playoff Odds
Indianapolis Colts QB Carson Wentz could miss up to three months after undergoing surgery on Monday to remove a piece of bone from his left foot. Wentz was sidelined last week in training camp after he felt a “twinge” in his left foot. Colts head coach Frank Reich said the surgery will sideline his QB for five to 12 weeks.
News of Wentz’s injury impacted both live NFL betting and NFL futures markets. Prop bets featuring Wentz’s season passing yards, and TD and interception totals, were taken down from most top sportsbooks and betting sites Monday afternoon.
Speculation on the Colts' Week 1 starter has centered around current Colts backup Jacob Eason and former Eagles QB Nick Foles, now the third-string QB for the Chicago Bears.
A fired up Nick Foles talks about Frank Reich, Carson Wentz, what he wants in a trade, and more.— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 2, 2021
Foles: "The version of me right now is much better than the version that played in the Super Bowl ... Put that through your mind."
This is worth the watch...pic.twitter.com/zVpsluax2l
Foles and Reich were together – along with Wentz – during the Eagles' successful Super Bowl run four years ago. Wentz and the Eagles were 11-2 in 2017 before he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in his left knee. Foles then guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl 52 upset over the Patriots.
Colts, Wentz Odds Impacted
Wentz was traded to the Colts from the Philadelphia Eagles for draft picks in March. Bettors across Indiana and beyond who back the Colts were hoping the former Philly QB would get a career reboot, and not a surgical repair boot.
The Colts-Seahawks NFL Week 1 betting line has moved dramatically since last week across all sports betting apps.
Indianapolis was a 2.5-point home favorite over Seattle with a 52.5-point total before Wentz got injured. When looking at the NFL odds, that line had bounced between 2 and 2.5 on the Colts side all offseason. But the Colts are now 2.5-point home underdogs and the total has slipped to 49.5 points. The Colts also fell from -150 to +115 on the moneyline at BetMGM .
Here is a look at some of the Colts and Wentz futures markets before and after news of his surgery.
|Colts, Wentz 2021 Odds||Pre-Wentz Injury||Post-Wentz Injury|
|Colts To Win SB 56||+2800||+3500|
|Colts To Win AFC||+1400||+1600|
|Colts To Win AFC South||+105||+180|
|Colts Win Total||O/U 10||O/U 9|
|Colts To Make Playoffs||-125||+115|
|Wentz To Win MVP||+2200||+4000|
Risk Free Bet up to $1,000
Injury A Cautionary Tale For Futures Bettors
The Wentz injury and subsequent surgery offers a cautionary tale for NFL bettors.
"Getting ahead of the market is key when it comes to betting futures," said Rush Street Interactive COO Mattias Stetz. "But it can be a double-edged sword, especially in the NFL where injuries are unfortunately part of the game."
The Colts, as of late last week, were accounting for a majority of the money in their Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks for both the spread (58%) and moneyline (81%) across Rush Street's sports betting properties, which includes SugarHouse sportsbook. Before Wentz's injury, his projected total for 2021 was 3,850.5 yards and 23.5 touchdowns at DraftKings. Those markets are no longer available.
After being taken with the second overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Eagles and Wentz had sky-high expectations. Wentz would be on the sidelines when the Eagles won their only Super Bowl. Still, the Eagles and Wentz went all-in before the 2019 season, agreeing to a four-year, $128 million contract.
Wentz posted solid regular season numbers that year but was knocked out of Philadelphia’s first-round playoff loss with a head injury. The Eagles would finally move on from Wentz as their starter in 2020. He was benched in favor of Jalen Hurts in a Week 13 loss last year.