Josh Allen MVP Odds: QB & Bills Surge Across Betting Markets
Buffalo QB Josh Allen has long since silenced the critics who blasted the Bills for taking him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2018 draft. But he’s been rewarding bettors who backed him and the Bills all along. Those who bet on Allen to win MVP honors early this season, and/or who stood with Bills Mafia early in 2021, are poised to stuff their pockets or online wallets this winter.
Allen led the Bills into the AFC Championship Game last season only to suffer a blowout 38-24 loss to Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City Chiefs. In the 2021 Week 5 sequel, Bills Mafia put a hit on their hosts and scored a 37-20 triumph at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Bills are now the top team to win the AFC and Allen the top pick in the MVP conversation across NFL futures markets. The Bills supplanted Kansas City at the top pick in the AFC, while Allen overtook Mahomes as the consensus MVP choice.
Oddsmakers and NFL betting experts were big on the Bills heading into this season. Those who grabbed both Buffalo and Allen early got value unlikely to return. This week the Bills visit Tennessee on Monday night.
Odds Soar After 2021 Success
|Win SB56||+1000||+550 at DraftKings|
|Win AFC||+500||+250 at DraftKings|
|Win AFC East||-150||-1600 at DraftKings|
|Allen MVP||+1300||+450 at FanDuel|
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Allen landed in Northern New York after being drafted out of Wyoming three years ago. He had a rough introduction into the NFL and AFC East, but showed plenty of unrefined skill.
He was initially destined to be the latest young AFC East passing talent washed out by the supernova that was Tom Brady. But Brady bolted for Tampa Bay before the 2020 season. The Patriots have chosen rookie QB Mac Jones to lead their rebuild.
Allen MVP Betting Favorite
As noted above, Allen has made a significant move up the board in MVP betting markets in just five weeks. He’s now the No. 1 pick in the NFL. Mahomes was the top preseason choice for bettors at +500 with FanDuel . Meanwhile, 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers stood alone in second at +1000, followed by Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady at +1200. Brady has been MVP four times.
Here are the current MVP odds at FanDuel:
|Josh Allen||BUF||+450 at FanDuel|
|Kyler Murray||ARI||+500 at FanDuel|
|Dak Prescott||DAL||+600 at FanDuel|
|Justin Herbert||LAC||+600 at FanDuel|
|Tom Brady||TB||+800 at FanDuel|
|Aaron Rodgers||GB||+900 at FanDuel|
|Matthew Stafford||LAR||+900 at FanDuel|
|Lamar Jackson||BAL||+1200 at FanDuel|
|Patrick Mahomes II||KC||+1500 at FanDuel|
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Allen’s preseason O/U for TD passes was 34.5 at DraftKings.
Allen threw for 37 touchdowns last season. We backed him to go over this number before the season. He has 12 TD passes in 2021 and is on pace to throw 35 on the year. This one will be close, as we suspected. Bettors backing the over here might want the Bills to stay close to the competition in the AFC since that would mean Allen plays in all 17 games, as opposed to sitting out the final game of the season if the team is locked into its playoff position.
Passing totals among the top QBs in the league have been dizzying this season. Six QBs are averaging more than 300 yards per game. Allen is ninth in the NFL with 1,370 yards passing, averaging 274 YPG. His preseason total was O/U 4,499.5 yards at FanDuel. Right now, he’s on pace to go over that number and finish with 4,658 yards, assuming he plays a 17-game season.
WR Emmanuel Sanders has finally emerged to take some pressure off Stefon Diggs, especially in short-yardage situations. Given Buffalo’s success running the ball this season, the Bills are 5th in the NFL averaging 140.4 yards per game rushing, it’s unlikely Allen will need to throw more as the season progresses.
Backing Allen A Winning Proposition
How well has Allen performed against NFL spreads during his career?
Quite well, thank you.
As a starter, Allen is 31-20 (60.7%) ATS in his career. Those numbers put him second only behind Teddy Bridgewater among active NFL starting QBs against the spread who have started more than 16 games. Sportsbooks and betting apps have shifted on the Bills in recent years, given the loyalty of Buffalo bettors and the legality (at retail outlets) of sports betting in New York.
NFL QBs AGAINST SPREAD: How has each NFL starter done against the spread?
All our records include the postseason and are via Pro Football Reference.
Using our system of betting $100 on Allen ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Allen weekly since his 2018 debut are up $727 in less than three full seasons.
The wings and beers are on you.