Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins

Kansas City Chiefs At LA Chargers Free Picks & TNF Betting Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs At LA Chargers Free Picks & TNF Betting Predictions
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One team will have a decided advantage in the AFC West title chase following a Week 15 Thursday Night Football showdown, as Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs (9-4) lead the division, but by just one game over the Chargers (8-5), who beat KC earlier this season.

Sportsbooks opened with Kansas City as a three-point road favorite, but some betting sites and leading betting apps have moved the line to -3.5.

Take a look at Chargers vs Chiefs odds, injury report, betting lines and more.


Chiefs vs. Chargers Key Matchups

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Chargers Front 7: L.A. is allowing 120 yards per game rushing to RBs, second-most in the NFL. CEH hasn’t had more than 63 yards in any of the three games since returning from injury.

Austin Ekeler vs. Chiefs Pass D: KC ranks 30th in pass yards allowed to running backs. Ekeler ranks third among all RBs in receptions and leads the NFL in yards.

Travis Kelce vs. L.A. red zone defense: Kelce ranks No. 2 among all TEs in receptions and yards, but his five TDs is tied for seventh. Only the Eagles have allowed more TDs to TEs than the Chargers’ 10.


RELATED: NFL Week 15 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games


5 Key Chiefs vs. Chargers Stats

7: Chargers covers against the spread in the last 27 home games vs. teams with a winning record – a 25.9% success rate.

14: Receptions of 20-plus yards for Chargers WR Mike Williams. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce each have 10.

18: Touchdowns allowed by the Chargers to opposing running backs. Only the Jets have allowed more.

65.1: The yards per game by Tyreek Hill vs. the Chargers in 10 career games. He had 56 vs. L.A. earlier this season. When Hill gets over 65 receiving yards, KC is 7-0. When he doesn’t, the team is 2-4.

236.2: Patrick Mahomes’ yards per game average in six career meetings vs. the Chargers. That’s the lowest of any opponent he’s faced more than once.


Chiefs vs. Chargers Weather Forecast

Weather won’t be much a factor inside SoFi Stadium in L.A., which is for the better because L.A. on Thursday has a high temperature of only 51 degrees, with dips into the 40s possible during the game. L.A. residents may bristle at such weather, but the Chiefs fans who will likely fill the place Thursday will feel at home.

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Props

Keenan Allen, Under 74.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Allen had one of his worst games this season vs. the Chiefs, while WR counterpart Mike Williams had one of his best; their styles (speed vs. physicality) may be a factor. Allen had only 34 yards two weeks ago and didn’t play last week. KC’s defense hasn’t allowed over 250 pass yards in six weeks, and that includes two games vs. the Raiders and those vs. the Packers and Cowboys.

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Mike Williams and Tyreek Hill, Over 50 Yards Receiving Each

Odds: -138 at FOX Bet

Williams has his occasional dud but the Chargers are 7-1 when he gets to 50 yards. He had 122 yards vs. KC earlier this season. Same with Hill; the Chiefs are 7-0 when he has over 65 yards. Both should be a focus for their QBs.

Harrison Butker, Over 7.5 Points

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Chiefs kicker had hit at least two field goals and at least one extra point in every game of the team’s six-game win streak. He hasn’t had fewer than seven points in any of those games and averaged 9.2. The Chargers have allowed 1.9 FGs per game at home.

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RELATED: NFL Week 15 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game


Chiefs vs. Chargers Moneyline

The Chiefs are -165 on the moneyline, meaning a $165 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the host Chargers are at +144 ($100 wins $144 in profit).

The Chargers beat the Chiefs 30-24 in Week 3, but KC helped the cause with four turnovers compared to L.A.’s zero. Few teams are playing better ball right now than the Chiefs, especially on defense, but they also had no answer for Herbert, who has seven TDs and no INTs in his last two starts vs. the Chiefs. The Chargers’ defensive strength – No. 5 vs. the pass – matches up well here. If you’re going to find value in the moneyline, it’s with the home team.

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Point Spread

When it comes to NFL spreads, the Chiefs are -3.5 here. It’s easy to see why; they’ve won six in a row and the last three opponents haven’t hit double figures in scoring. The matchups, however, favor the Chargers.

Herbert has all his weapons for this one. We did well fading Mahomes and the Chiefs in the first half of the season, but those days are done. We’re not touching either side, but those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider the Chargers, especially if you can get over a field goal.

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Totals

The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 50.5 points, two points higher than the original line of 48.5. Some might be surprised it’s rising, given the dominance of the Chiefs defense lately. But look on the other side, especially in games at SoFi Stadium.

The last five Chargers home games have averaged 64.6 ppg. The last five Chiefs road games are at 54.4 ppg despite the defensive turnaround. The last two in this series have produced 59 and 54. Under has been profitable on Thursdays but the Over looks like the better side for your NFL betting Week 15 TNF ticket. You can get Over 50.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.