Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers Best Bets, Picks & Point Spreads

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

Nearly half of all the opening week's games of the 2022 NFL betting season were decided by a field goal or less. Week 2 has high expectations, and it’s certainly getting the slate started with a marquee showdown between elite offenses.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Mahomes passed for 360 yards and five TDs in a Week 1 win at Arizona. Herbert went for 279 and three scores in L.A.’s victory over Las Vegas. This Week 2 showdown could go a long way in the race for the tough AFC West. It should be a fun one, especially with Kansas sports betting now legal in the Sunflower State.

The latest Chargers vs. Chiefs odds have Kansas City favored by 4.5 points with an Over/Under of 54.5 points on betting sites.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running – reveals his Chiefs vs. Chargers best bets for the TNF clash.

LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread

The Chiefs are laying 4.5 points on betting apps, a fair number that doesn’t show much value on either side. The Chiefs last year were 9-3 at home (6-6 against the spread) but were usually giving up a TD or more. One of those L’s was a 30-24 straight-up defeat at the hands of these Chargers.

One key aspect: Chargers injuries. Last week, top CB J.C. Jackson (ankle) didn’t play and Davante Adams had 10 receptions for 141 yards and a TD. WR Keenan Allen is also out in Week 2. That offers an additional edge, which pushes us slightly in the direction of laying the points with the host Chiefs for our Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets.

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LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under

This total isn’t just the highest on the NFL Week 2 odds board, it’s the highest by a whopping three points. That should be no surprise given the weaponry, led by the QBs. Mahomes and Herbert combined to throw for nearly 700 yards with eight TDs and no INTs in Week 1.

These trends are overwhelmingly on the side of the Over for both teams. For the Chargers, the Over has hit in their last four games on TNF and in six of seven overall. For the Chiefs, it’s eight of nine, and five of six on Thursday. They each ranked in the top three last year in Over percentage. Last year, the two games totaled 54 and 56 (in regulation). Look for another Over in this series on Thursday for your Chargers vs. Chiefs picks.

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LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline

While most of the league has no idea what to do against Mahomes, the Chargers have something figured out. In the last four games, Los Angeles has won two of them with the other two, KC wins, both decided in overtime. All of those games were won by the road team.

The absence of Jackson gives us pause to back a fifth-consecutive road team win in this series. We lean toward KC taking the win for our Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets in Week 2.

Best LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Props

Justin Herbert, Over 1.5 Touchdowns

Odds: -235 at BetMGM

Only once since Week 9 of the 2021 season has Herbert not tossed at least two TDs. In four games against the Chiefs, he’s tossed 15 of them (3.75 average). The Chiefs have allowed two pass TDs in five of their last six games; the only game they didn’t was against the hapless Broncos, and Drew Lock actually ran two scores in. Get the best odds for this prop at BetMGM for your Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets.

Austin Ekeler, Over 53.5 Rush Yards

Odds: -120 at DraftKings

Ekeler had a disappointing 36 yards rushing on 14 carries for a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt last week. But we’re more interested in the attempts than the results.

When he rushes at least nine times he is usually a shoo-in to hit this total. In four games against KC in which he had nine carries, he averaged 63.3. Last season, he gained at least 54-plus yards in 12 of the 15 games with nine attempts, averaging 60.3. Lock in the Ekeler Over at DraftKings.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.