The Titans lost their first two games but have since won five in a row, covering in each. None were against a team with the offensive prowess of the Chiefs, but KC has its own issues on the defensive end. The Chiefs have won three of four by scoring 33.8 ppg, but they’ve also allowed 26.8. 

This huge 12.5-point spread on sports betting sites is a lot of points for a Titans squad, even one that ranks dead last in total yards. Surely it’s not a great matchup for the Titans, but it sounds like QB Ryan Tannehill should be back on the field. 

Tennessee has had just one game decided by double figures – its 41-7 loss to the Bills in Week 2. We’ll take the points – the Titans have covered in five of six meetings, all as the underdog. 

Based on numbers alone, the 46-point total seems low. After all, the Chiefs and Titans average a combined 50.8 ppg and allow just over 44. But the Under has hit in four straight Titans games, and it’s 12-3-1 in KC’s last 16 games following the bye week. 

No Titans game has had more than 48 points, and that required 41 from one side. None has finished over 38 since Week 4. But the Chiefs are on the flip side. Three of their last four have finished with at least 59 points. 

Expect tough sledding for the Titans, which keeps us from jumping hard on either side of the total. If we want to hit it, we’re hitting over on betting apps. 

The Chiefs are a massive -610 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $610 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, the Titans are +460 (bet $100 to win $460 in profit). The KC line is a big one against a team with an identical record which hammered them last October. 

Regardless of the spread, however, this is a good overall matchup for the Chiefs, who rank No. 3 in the NFL in rushing defense. Tennessee’s issue has been pass defense – also good news for Mahomes. Kansas City is the play, but maybe better for a Survivor Pool than a high-risk, low-reward moneyline wager. 

Patrick Mahomes, Over 281.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Mahomes has passed for 292, 338, and 423 yards in the past three weeks. He’s averaged 326 yards vs. Tennessee in his career. This season, Tennessee has given up 227 or fewer yards three times, and 300-plus yards four times. Which side do you think Patrick falls on Sunday night? 

Derrick Henry, Over 86.5 Rush Yards

Odds: -112 at Caesars

Ryan Tannehill might be a gametime decision for the Titans. If Malik Willis goes again, Henry is going to get 30-plus carries, and he’s getting Over this number. If Tannehill does play, Henry is still the guy. Only once has the Titans finished Under this number as a team, and Henry has four straight games over 100 yards. For the Titans, the gameplan is to keep it close and feed the beast.