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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Picks & Betting Predictions

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com

Eytan Shander  | 8 mins

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Picks & Betting Predictions

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What may appear as a major dud to some is gold for NFL betting fans with the Dolphins and Jets game on tap in Week 11.

We see sportsbooks have this game at a 3.5-point spread with the road Dolphins laying the points. While there’s certainly reason to focus on NFL spreads every week, sometimes we get a rather obvious play with the total.

The Jets are still searching for an answer at quarterback – starting Joe Flacco this week against Miami, not Zach Wilson. Their defense is the real story, as we’ve seen consistent totals in the 50s for Jets games.

Miami comes off one of the larger upsets this season, knocking off Baltimore on Thursday Night Football. It appears Tua Tagovailoa will return to his starting role against New York.

While online sports betting in New York is progressing toward a potential go-live date around the time of the Super Bowl, it's not live yet. However, for those able to get a legal wager down on Jets vs. Dolphins, we expect points in this one, and so should you. Let's take a look at our picks:

Take a look at Dolphins vs. Jets odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Dolphins vs Jets Key Matchups

Miami O vs Jets (lack of) D: The numbers aren’t great for total points in Jets' games, and we know NY isn’t on the winning side of most of these games. Miami should be able to comfortably operate their offense.

Jets WRs vs Dolphins CBs: Miami’s secondary was on full display against the Ravens and should be able to stifle the Jets' crew of receivers, rather easily.

Myles Gaskin vs Jets Front: It’s not like Miami blew out Baltimore or even truly imposed their will on the ground. Gaskin has a chance to turn last game’s 31-yard performance into a gem against the Jets.

RELATED: NFL Week 11 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

Dolphins vs Jets Key Stats

9th: The one thing the Jets do better than anything else is throw the football, at least from a ranking standpoint. Of course, these are hollow numbers as the team is trailing often and throwing as much as possible.

15th: The Dolphins are 15th in the NFL in rushing offense at 109.3 YPG. Gaskin leads the way but Miami has a couple of weapons that can undo the Jets front.

1: This number is key in making my NFL picks this week, with the total being the play. Since Week 3, just one Jets game has failed to hit 50+ total points, and that was a 47-point total. The Jets give up a lot of points.

3: Joe Flacco – the starting QB for the New York Jets – has only thrown three passes this season. They came in last week’s blowout loss to the Bills.

31: Nobody on the Jets has more than 31 receptions this season. The Dolphins aren’t great at throwing the ball but come in with three players with at least 38 grabs – including Jaylen Waddle with 60.

2: Both of the Jets' wins this year have come at home. The Dolphins have won two straight, after losing seven straight.

Dolphins vs Jets Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa Over 23.5 Completions

Odds: -105 at DraftKings

We know the Dolphins are going to put up points against the Jets, and that means Tua throwing a lot. In the rare event the Dolphins are down, then expect Tua to throw even more.

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Michael Carter Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Carter may not get a ton of yards on the ground, but he will be involved in the passing game. The targets are there, plus Flacco will need all the short help he can get.

Jaylen Waddle Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Tua-to-Waddle connect is alive and well, expect Waddle to be heavily targeted. Be it a deep throw or Waddle breaking something on his own, this number is reachable.

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RELATED: NFL Week 11 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

Dolphins vs Jets ML

The Dolphins look like a strong lock to win this football game, even if they don’t cover the hook. Look on betting sites for better value on Miami as the game gets closer to kick.

The moneyline may dip into the 150 or even 140 range depending on money coming in late. It’s worth a parlay piece at -160, but you may be able to lay two units to win one, with the idea that the Jets would need a miracle to win this outright.

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Dolphins vs Jets Spread

This one is way more difficult with the hook involved, mainly because we know it’s not moving through that key number of 3. You can take the Jets and possibly tease them up, not always recommended for a home dog – especially one this bad. If the Jets find a way to take the lead, we know the live line has a better chance of shifting in Miami’s favor.

It’s a road game against a division opponent, and Miami isn’t good. Tread lightly on the line. The reality is if making a pick, there’s a better chance the Dolphins cover that hook than the Jets needing it. Take Dolphins -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings.

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Dolphins vs Jets Total

Go back to the totals for New York games since Week 3, it’s an over bettor’s dream. The number is way too low, and doesn’t reflect how many overall points get scored when the Jets are involved. The Dolphins looked better with Tua at the helm last week and come in looking for their third straight win.

Combine that with Miami’s aggressive defense and there should be plenty of Jets turnovers. That will lead to shorter fields and possible defensive scores. Go with the Over 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel.

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About the Author

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com
Eytan Shander
Eytan Shander writes about the NFL, NBA and more for Bookies.com. A 15-year radio veteran, he has worked nationally for Mad Dog Radio & NBC Sports Radio.