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New England Patriots At Buffalo Bills Picks & NFL Wild Card Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 7 mins

New England Patriots At Buffalo Bills Picks & NFL Wild Card Predictions

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The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots face off in a massive rubber match on Saturday in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. Each team won on the road during the regular season, but the Bills earned the AFC East championship to host this opening-round showdown.

Betting sites and betting apps have Buffalo as a four-point favorite, with an Over/Under of 43 points in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds. When it comes to NFL spreads in this clash, the line has moved in the Patriots’ direction from the opening line of -4.5.

After online sports betting in New York went live on Saturday, don't forget to check out the latest odds and lines on top NY betting apps. Here's a quick look at what's available:

Take a look at Bills vs Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Patriots vs. Bills Key Matchups

Mac Jones vs. Bills Pass D: Buffalo ranks No. 1 in the NFL in fewest pass yards and fewest pass TDs allowed this season. Two of Jones’ three lowest-production games were against the Bills.

Devin Singletary vs. Patriots Red Zone Defense: Singletary has scored five rushing TDs in the last four games for Buffalo. New England has allowed just six rushing touchdowns all season, the fewest in the NFL.

Patriots Pass-Catching RBs vs. Bills LBs: New England’s backs have 93 receptions on the season. Buffalo has allowed only 57 receptions to RBs, tied with Detroit for the lowest total.

RELATED: Buffalo Bills NFL Playoff & Super Bowl Futures Outlook

5 Key Patriots vs. Bills Stats

2.7: Receptions allowed per game to tight ends by the Patriots defense – the lowest average in the NFL.

3.2: Receptions allowed to TEs by the Bills defense – the league’s second-lowest mark.

6: TDs allowed to wide receivers all season by the Bills defense. No other team allowed fewer than 12.

113.2: Yards allowed to WRs by the Bills, also No. 1 in the NFL. Pats WRs Jakobi Meyers (866 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (800) were Jones’ top targets.

127.7: Yards allowed to WRs by the Patriots, which ranks No. 2. Josh Allen’s top three pass-catchers were WRs: Stefon Diggs (1,225 yards), Cole Beasley (693) and Emmanuel Sanders (626).

Patriots vs. Bills Weather Forecast

Mother Nature was a major factor when these teams met at Highmark Stadium on Dec. 6. Whipping winds prevented either team from moving the ball – each side finished with under 250 yards of offense. Winds will be better, but that issue will be replaced by temperatures hovering around 10 degrees at kickoff. We’ll see if it stops Bills Mafia from ripping off their shirts before halftime.

Patriots vs Bills Player Props

Jakobi Meyers, Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

The Bills are No. 1 in pass defense, but Jones is going to pass to someone. Meyers has 8-12 targets in each of his last five games, and 68.8 ypg in that stretch.

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Devin Singletary, Over 82.5 Total Yards

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

The Bills haven’t lost since making Singletary their lead back and feeding him. The last five games he’s totaled 112, 110, 78, 96 and 89 yards. The Pats rank 22nd in rush defense.

Devin Singletary, Over 50 Rush Yards + TD

Odds: +187 at FOX Bet

Singletary has gained 80-plus rush yards in three of the last four games. The exception was a 39-yard effort vs. these Pats, but he can bounce back. He’s scored five TDs the last four games, too.

Patriots vs. Bills Moneyline

The Bills are -195 favorites on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $195 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, underdog New England is +165 (a $100 bet means $165 in profit). The Bills were -4.5 earlier in the week but early action at most sportsbooks has been on the road Pats.

Needless to say, Bill Belichick finds ways in the postseason. He’s arguably the greatest to ever don a headset. Put that aside, and the Bills have the matchups and the momentum. They’ve also won three of four vs. Belichick and the Pats, the exception being the gusty game at Buffalo on Dec. 6. Weather may play a factor on Saturday, too, which diminishes the value of siding with the favorite here. There are other plays we like more than either side of this moneyline.

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Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread

The Bills are at -4, from -4.5 as money came in right from the start on the Patriots. The last time these teams met in Buffalo, New England prevailed 14-10, but that was played in remarkably windy conditions; Mac Jones was just 2-of-3 passing for 19 yards.

The rematch Dec. 26 at Foxborough was under more normal conditions, a game the Bills won 33-21. Buffalo won the yardage battle 428-288, the turnover game 2-0 and time of possession by over 10 minutes. New England has lost three of four, the lone victory vs. the Jaguars. Buffalo has taken four straight, all by 12 or more points. Those looking for Sunday night NFL betting action should jump on Buffalo and lay the points.

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Patriots vs. Bills Totals

The Over/Under for this Saturday evening matchup came in at 43.5, by far the lowest total of the week. Judging by the season-long splits of these teams, it should be lower.

Buffalo averages a robust 28.4 ppg while New England isn’t far behind at 27.2 – a combined 55.6 ppg and way over this posted total. But the defenses? They rank No. 1 and 2 in the NFL in points allowed, at just 17.0 (Bills) and 17.8 (Pats). That’s not all. Combined, these teams scored 6.7 ppg fewer in this location (Bills at home, Patriots on the road) while each defense was measurably better (32.6 ppg allowed). Weather conditions could aid the defense, too. The Under is a solid add to any NFL picks lineup for Wild Card Weekend.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.