Buffalo Bills NFL Playoff Odds: 'Kansas City, Here I Come'

By Bill Speros Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Fats Domino couldn't wait to get to Kansas City back in the day. The Buffalo Bills are in no rush, as Sunday will arrive soon enough.

The Bills celebrated like they won their first NFL championship after wrecking the New England Patriots 47-17 in the AFC Wild Card game. But even the most vociferous table-jumping member of Bills Mafia had to temper their cheer with the realization that their march to Super Bowl 56 goes through Kansas City this weekend.

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The Bills and Chiefs play at what used to be called Arrowhead Stadium in the Sunday night prime-time spot to close out the NFL Divisional Round. The Bills were back-and-forth NFL betting favorites with the Chiefs to win the AFC this season, according to oddsmakers. Many wags have already christened this affair as the “real” conference championship game.

NFL odds had the Bills as +2.5 underdogs when they routed the Chiefs 38-20 in Week 5 in Kansas City. Josh Allen was nearly flawless against the Chiefs’ defense still finding itself early in the season. Allen threw for 315 yards, ran for another 59 and tossed 3 TD passes. That mixture of Allen running and throwing has been the recipe for much of the Bills’ offensive success this season and was on display in the Wild Card destruction of the Patriots.

The Chiefs fell to 2-3 after that game. But Kansas City has gone 11-2 since, including its Wild Card win over Pittsburgh. But their two losses came to teams still in the postseason – Cincinnati and Tennessee. The winner of the Bengals vs. Titans game Saturday faces either the Bills or Chiefs in the actual AFC Championship Game on Jan. 30.

Chiefs vs Bills Odds & Analysis

Take a look at Bills vs Chiefs odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

This line opened with Kansas City as 2-point favorites at most major sportsbooks, top betting sites and available betting apps. The total has bounced between 54.5 to 55 since opening. It has settled back to 54.5 at most books. The price on the Bills has fallen to +2.5 and +110.

There are two “rivalries” undercutting this matchup. One is between Patrick Mahomes II and Allen for QB supremacy in the AFC. Neither QB has a realistic chance in the NFL MVP race, given that they’re both +5000 at DraftKings in that market. That award is focused solely on the regular season. Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing for a shot in their third-straight Super Bowl. Allen and the Bills fell short at Kansas City in the 2021 AFC Championship game.

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The other is between coach Andy Reid and Sean McDermott for post-Bill Belichick/Tom Brady AFC dominance. McDermott finally dispatched the shadow and specter of the Hoodie in the AFC East. Toppling Andy Reid and Belichick in consecutive weeks would wipe out any self-doubt that McDermott or his staff might have.

The Bills are primed to scale this challenge. But their success won’t come as dramatically or decisively as their victory over what was left of the Patriots Dynasty.

Containment of Allen on the ground will be the key for the Chiefs’ defense, given how Allen is able to sustain drives on his own. As the Buccaneers demonstrated aptly in Super Bowl 55, keeping Mahomes off the field and pressuring him when he is on it provides a path to victory.

Bills' AFC & Super Bowl Futures Analysis

Here are the odds from major New York betting apps on the remaining teams in the AFC to win the conference and Super Bowl.

AFC Championship Odds

Odds via FanDuel and current as of Jan. 20. Be sure to check out the FanDuel promo code for a risk-free first bet up to $1,000. You can also pick up this same offer if you are based in New York by heading to our FanDuel NY page.

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BUZZ: If you’re backing the Bills, this play is really a wager on Sunday’s game. After winning at Kansas City, the Bills will be clear favorites at home against the Bengals, should Cincinnati win, and roughly a pick-‘em (close to +100 or -110) at Tennessee. By that point, New York sports betting fans looking to wager on the Bills won’t find any more value in this market. Buffalo’s price has risen from just +500 to +230 after a full season and a playoff win. Those looking for value here should eye the Bengals. They have the firepower to beat any of the three teams remaining in the conference.

Super Bowl 56 Odds

Odds via BetMGM and current as of Jan. 20. Be sure to check out our BetMGM New York page for the best bonus codes available in the Empire State.

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BUZZ: The best way to approach this market is to simply look at the matchups this week and beyond. While the 49ers appear to be a terrific value here, they have to win at Green Bay and then at either Tampa Bay or LA just to get to the Super Bowl. That’s a rough road considering the team has an injured QB. The Titans, meanwhile, have the top seed in the AFC but continue to get little respect from oddsmakers. We like the Bills here at +550 given that it’s the same price being offered on the defending Super Bowl champions. Congrats to those who jumped on the Bengals and Titans before the season.

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About the Author

Bill Speros

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Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.