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New Orleans Saints At New York Jets Picks & Betting Predictions

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com

Eytan Shander  | 9 mins

New Orleans Saints At New York Jets Picks & Betting Predictions

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At this point in the season the Jets would be doing more harm to their future than good by winning a football game. The Saints still have a decent shot to make the playoffs despite their rotating of the QB position. We have seen sportsbooks already take into account the continued absence of Alvin Kamara, but star DE Cam Jordan being out with COVID should impact NFL betting – at least with the spread.

Now losers of five straight, it’s clear the Saints can’t compete without some combination of a healthy Kamara and some stability at quarterback. The Saints are reportedly expecting Kamara to return against the Jets, but nothing is official mid-week.

While the Saints are back to Taysom Hill at QB, the Jets are dealing with their own carousel. WR Elijah Moore may join Corey Davis on the sideline this week, but they do get a healthy Keelan Cole off the COVID list to bolster the position.

This is a tighter number among this week’s NFL spreads at 5.5, but that’s based on the Saints struggles with Trevor Siemian. The reality is, as bad as it looks for the Saints, it’s much worse for the Jets. Zach Wilson and his offense were shut down in the second half last week against the Eagles and face a tough front in the Saints defense.

Take a look at Saints vs Jets odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Saints vs Jets Key Matchups

Saints Rush O vs Jets Defense: Without Kamara the offense is relegated to Hill running around to limit his throws. Add the Saints All-Pro back to the equation and the Jets defense will be overmatched from the opening drive.

Any Jets RB vs Saints Run D: If this game is among your NFL picks this week, then use this as the No. 1 factor. The Saints will be able to run at will on the Jets, where NY won’t be able to move a pile let alone the football.

Jets Pass O vs Saints Secondary: If there’s one pathway for the Jets staying in the game, it’s throwing the ball against New Orleans’ 22nd-ranked pass defense.

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Saints vs Jets Key Stats

96.4: The Saints give up less than 100 rushing yards per game, keeping teams frustrated and one-dimensional for the most part. The Jets are already down their top RB in Michael Carter.

30th: 30 seems to be the magic number for the Jets. They are 30th in the NFL in Rush offense, Rush defense, and Pass defense.

10th: The Jets do throw the ball, albeit because they are down so much in the second half. New Orleans averages 263.7 passing YPG.

11: Zach Wilson has 11 interceptions in eight games this year.

2-4: The Jets are just 2-4 ATS on the year as home underdogs.

530: In only eight games of work, Alvin Kamara has rushed for 530 yards and three scores. Reports have him expected to return, but the workload hasn’t been determined.

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Saints vs Jets Player Props

Alvin Kamara Over 71.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Kamara will be relied upon to save the Saints season, he’s also going up against a brutal Jets run defense.

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Taysom Hill Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

The game script makes sense that the Saints will do everything they can to exploit the Jets run defense. Hill is a top-3 rusher for New Orleans and will have designed plays for him.

Marquez Callaway Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception

Odds: -105 at BetMGM

Hill won’t always be running the football, and the Jets defense is just bad all around. They are worse against the pass, so even if it’s a catch-and-run, Calloway has the speed to get 20 yards on any catch.

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Saints vs Jets Moneyline

The Saints are not going to have much value at betting sites alone on the ML, but make a great anchor play for any parlay build. The Jets are trending in the wrong direction for an already 3-9 football team, whereas the Saints expect their best player back on Sunday.

Zach Wilson isn’t good enough to overcome the lack of his two best receivers and their pass defense is bad enough to make it easy for even Hill. There’s always a nice return for a team returning over 2-to-1 plus money, but it’s wasted on the Jets.

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Saints vs Jets Spread

The line figures the Jets have a slim chance at keeping things close but doesn’t factor in the circumstances surrounding both teams. We mentioned the injuries in the ML section, but what about playing for something, like a possible playoff berth. The Saints still have a Super Bowl-winning head coach and one of the most dangerous weapons out of the backfield.

Two of their top three rushers are Kamara and Hill, so the offense should run over the Jets defense. Don’t expect much throwing from the Saints, and don’t expect much running from the Jets. Take Saints -5 (-110) at FanDuel.

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Saints vs Jets Total

The reality here is the Saints will dictate tempo all game. The Jets may be down big in the second half, and even try to throw their way out of it, but more throws never automatically equal more points. Wilson still needs to complete throws, wideouts still need to get open, and the line still needs to protect.

That parlay of circumstances rarely happens for the Jets. The Saints' main weapons are now on the ground with Hill as the starting QB, so don’t expect them to throw deep often, rather run all day. The clock should move at lightning speed. Take the Under 42.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

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About the Author

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com
Eytan Shander
Eytan Shander writes about the NFL, NBA and more for Bookies.com. A 15-year radio veteran, he has worked nationally for Mad Dog Radio & NBC Sports Radio.