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New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks & MNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 7 mins

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks & MNF Predictions

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Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, looking to get back on track following two upset losses, face Daniel Jones and a New York Giants team coming off their bye week and a win over the Raiders. The Bucs (6-3) come off a dispirited 29-19 loss to Washington. Brady has thrown six TDs but four INTs in their last two games after having three picks total in Tampa Bay’s first seven games. The Giants (3-6) welcome back star RB Saquon Barkley, who has only received more than 10 carries in three games because of his health.

Betting sites and betting apps have Tampa Bay as a big 10.5-point favorite, with an Over/Under of 50 points in the latest Giants vs. Buccaneers odds. This is one of the NFL spreads that has moved one point from an opening line of Buccaneers -12.5, and a total that’s dropped from 51.

Take a look at Giants vs. Buccaneers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Giants vs. Buccaneers Key Matchups

Saquon Barkley vs. Bucs Run Defense: The return of New York’s star RB will be a challenging one as he faces a Tampa Bay defense that’s allowing 58 rushing yards per game, second-fewest in the NFL.

Tom Brady vs. Giants Defense: Brady leads the NFL in pass yards per game (319) and TDs (27). They Giants have allowed over 300 passing yards just twice in nine games and never more than 320.

Mike Evans vs. Giants Deep DBs: Evans has 13 20-yard receiving plays, sixth-most in the NFL. The Giants’ defense is allowing 4.6 yards per play over the last three weeks, fifth-lowest.

5 Key Giants vs. Buccaneers Stats

6: The most starts through nine games for any Giants RB or WR. Top wideout Sterling Shepard has played five games, Kenny Golladay six, and Barkley five.

12: Sacks suffered by Tom Brady, tied with Kirk Cousins for the fewest among QBs who have started nine games. The Giants average 2.1 sacks per game, tied for 19th.

13.2: The ppg allowed difference by the Giants over the last three games, when they’ve given up 12 ppg, compared to the first six, where the number was 25.2 ppg.

81: The yards rushing threshold for the Buccaneers; they’re 5-0 when they gain at least that many yards on the ground, and 1-3 when they don’t. They Giants have allowed 82-plus in seven of nine games.

212.7: Passing yards allowed per game by the Giants in their three wins, compared to 268.5 ypg in the six losses. Tom Brady averages 320 ypg passing.

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Giants vs. Buccaneers Weather Forecast

Monday night in Tampa offers a consistent night sky with few clouds and temperatures expected in the 60s for kickoff. The high for Monday is 77, the low 57. It will be a nice break from the weather in the New York/New Jersey area for the Giants, where rain chances are mixed with temperatures in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday.

Giants vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Tom Brady, Over 295.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -105 at FOX Bet

Brady has been held to 220 yards or less in two of the Buccaneers’ last five games. The other three he eclipsed 296. Here’s the kicker: When his buddy Rob Gronkowski suits up, as he will Monday, Brady has thrown for at least 375 yards in three of the four games.

Kenny Golladay, Over 45.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at FOX Bet

Golladay had just two catches for 28 yards in Week 9 after a four-week absence, but the two games before that he had 64 and 116 yards. Golladay will benefit from a healthy Giants offense, and from playing a Bucs D that ranks 21st vs. the pass.

Kenny Golladay & Chris Godwin, 125 Combined Receiving Yards

Odds: -125 at PointsBet

Godwin has had between 7-8 receptions in each of the last three games, with 111, 140 and 57 yards in them. I think Golladay can get at least 50 (see above), and Brady’s top middle-of-the-field target is due for another solid outing.

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Giants vs. Buccaneers Moneyline

The Buccaneers are a hefty -550 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $550 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, the underdog Giants are +400 (a $100 win means $400 in profit). Most moneyline picks at sportsbooks are siding with Tampa Bay despite the odds.

There is no good side here. The Buccaneers are the clear favorite, but they just lost to similarly huge underdog last week and Tom Brady’s track record in prime-time games isn’t solid. The Giants should have confidence coming off win and a bye and Barkley in the backfield. Tampa Bay should win, if not cover, but the price is too high.

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Giants vs. Buccaneers Point Spread

The Buccaneers are at -10.5, down from -12.5 in some spots. The earlier number is closer to where it should be, but we can see why it moved. Tampa Bay is not playing its best and New York comes in with a spark of confidence. More ammo to back the Giants: The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, with the Giants 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa. Of course, there’s Brady’s infamous 0-11 ATS mark in his last 11 regular-season prime-time games.

The numbers don’t lie, but neither do these rosters. The number is close to where it makes sense based on rosters, but past experiences make it less enticing. For those looking for a little Monday night NFL betting action, the points for either side aren’t showing much value.

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Giants vs. Buccaneers Totals

The Over/Under for Monday Night Football sits at 50. The Over has hit in the last six meetings, but neither team is trending to the Over lately. The last three Giants games totaled 39 points or less – way under this total – and only one of the last three Bucs games have hit 50.

Both teams' season scoring trends suggest a final score under 50, too. But expect a bounceback game from the Buccaneers offense and an uptick in production from Jones sand the Giants, too. Trends are made to be broken. Take the contrarian stance and back the Over as one of your NFL picks for Week 11. You can get the Over at -110 with BetMGM.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.