It’s must-win time for the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets as the AFC Playoff hopefuls face off on the Week 16 edition of Thursday Night Football for this NFL betting season.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (6-8) are two games out of the final playoff spot in the AFC, while the Jets (7-7) are just one game out, but behind the 7-7 Patriots based on head-to-head tiebreaker. Thursday night’s loser is effectively dropped from the postseason conversation. 

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Oddsmakers on betting apps are practically leaving it up to the public, with host New York favored by just one point in the latest Jaguars vs. Jets odds. The Over/Under is just 38 points. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – on a 67% run the last month on his NFL picks – reveals his best plays for the important AFC showdown. 

Jaguars vs. Jets Point Spread Pick

Each team has given us reason to fade them this season. Jacksonville is just 2-6 against the spread on the road, the Jets are on a 0-4 ATS slide on New York betting apps on Thursdays, and 0-3 ATS and SU overall over the last three. But the Jaguars are playing better right now, on a 3-1 run with victories over the Cowboys, Titans and Ravens. 

Facing the Jets’ offense, which has scored 20 or less in six of eight, will be a breath of fresh air compared to what the Jaguars have been facing. Jacksonville’s offense has weapons and it is beginning to hum. The Jets aren’t there yet. Back the Jaguars on Thursday. 

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Jaguars vs. Jets Over/Under Best Bet

How low is this 38-point total? Well, each of the last four Jaguars games have totaled at least 54 on betting sites. Of course, the Jets even things out; only one of their last nine games has gone past 39 points. 

When it comes to sides, we’re leaning Over. The Jets have shown the propensity to toss the ball often and downfield. The Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense and 29th in pass TDs allowed. Lawrence and the Jaguars should get to 28 points for the fourth time in five games. The Jets may not keep up, but they’ll chip in. The Over is the top play on Thursday. 

Jaguars vs. Jets Moneyline Pick

This is close to an even-money wager for each side. We like the Jaguars to cover as an underdog at +1, so of course we like the Jaguars to win straight-up. The question is, how much do we want that additional point? 

We don’t value it much. If you can get the Jaguars at +100 or -105, take it. The Jets have dropped three straight, have QB questions and no run game. Jacksonville is trending in the right direction. New York is 3-4 at home. At similar odds, take the better side. 

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Best Jaguars vs. Jets Player Props

Trevor Lawrence, Over 214.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

The Jets have allowed only one QB to eclipse this mark in the last seven weeks. But it was last week, and against Jared Goff and the Lions – the NFC equivalent to the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s latest success has been predicated on Trevor and the pass attack. He’s gone well over 300 yards in the Jags’ last three wins and over this total all but four times. 

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Tyler Conklin, Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Conklin is often a non-factor in the New York pass game. He’s finished with single-digit yards in two of the last three weeks. But he also has seven games of over 20 receiving yards, and many of those were with Zach Wilson under center. Wilson is back, and the Jaguars rank 29th in yards allowed and even worse in yards per reception.