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NFL Week 17 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 27 mins

NFL Week 17 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

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With two weeks to go in the 2022 NFL betting season, only four of the 14 postseason slots remain available. But nearly half the league is still in contention. 

A total of 24 of 32 teams remain in the hunt entering Week 17. With the right circumstances, most of those teams could still be playing for something in Week 18, too. 

The NFC South might be decided on Sunday, when Tom Brady’s Buccaneers – alone in first place at 7-8 – host the Carolina Panthers (6-9). The New Orleans Saints (6-9) are at the Eagles and don’t even need to beat the NFC leader to remain in the hunt – as long as Carolina beats Tampa. 

The AFC’s final spot is currently owned by Miami (8-7), but QB Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol and may not play this weekend against New England – one of four 7-8 teams that could sneak past the Dolphins.

The Eagles and Vikings remain in the hunt for the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals are in play for No. 1 in the AFC. Meanwhile, five teams remain in the hunt for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, though the Texans (2-12-1) and Bears (3-12) have the inside track. 

Public Service Announcement: Ohio sports betting goes live at midnight on New Year's Day in the Buckeye State, which means the full Sunday slate, plus Cincinnati vs. Buffalo on Monday Night Football, is available to legally bet. 2023 is starting off right!


RELATED:  All NFL Head Coaches Ranked Against the Spread


NFL Week 17 Picks & Best Bets

Oddsmakers on betting apps have now set betting lines for Week 17 matchups. Here are our NFL Week 17 picks and best bets: 

DateMatchupWeek 17 Picks
Thursday, Dec. 29Cowboys @ Titans Cowboys ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Bears @ Lions Over Points Total
Sunday, Jan. 1Cardinals @ Falcons Under Points Total
Sunday, Jan. 1Broncos @ Chiefs Broncos ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Dolphins @ Patriots Dolphins ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Colts @ Giants Giants ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Saints @ Eagles Eagles ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Panthers @ Buccaneers Over Points Total
Sunday, Jan. 1Browns @ Commanders Commanders ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Jaguars @ Texans Jaguars ATS
Sunday, Jan. 149ers @ Raiders 49ers ATS
Sunday, Jan. 1Jets @ Seahawks Under Points Total
Sunday, Jan. 1Vikings @ Packers Over Points Total
Sunday, Jan. 1Rams @ Chargers Under Points Total
Sunday, Jan. 1Steelers @ Ravens Ravens ATS
Monday, Jan. 2Bills @ Bengals Bills ATS

All NFL Week 17 best bets are accurate as of publication. Our picks are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code BOOKIESPICKS to get a $1,000 risk-free bet for your NFL picks.

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Thursday, December 29

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans, 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime)

Malik Willis has three starts under his rookie belt. He’s 25-of-49 passing and has yet to eclipse 100 yards or toss a TD. The confidence didn’t get a boost on Sunday when his Titans were beaten by the “tanking” Texans. 

Tennessee’s 31st-ranked pass D might be in trouble against a Dallas side that’s averaging 37.2 ppg the last six weeks. We like Dallas as one of our top NFL picks for Week 17.

Best Bet: Cowboys -10

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Sunday, January 1

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

Speaking of starting QBs who shouldn’t be starting, Atlanta hasn’t scored 20 points in a game since Nov. 20. Desmond Ridder has yet to toss a TD in two starts. Neither of these teams have won a game in over a month, and only once in the last nine combined has either eclipsed 16 points. Avert your eyes. 

Best Bet: Under 41

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

One never knows when the Bears' or Lions' “competitive side” is going to show itself; certainly more likely with Detroit but it just got shelled 37-23 to the Panthers. Here’s what we do know: These teams rank 31st and 32nd in points allowed (52.9 ppg); it’s 55.4 ppg given the home/road splits in play. 

Best Bet: Over 52

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

The broken Broncos jettisoned their head coach on Monday and now face the NFL’s premier offense on the road. But this is a lot of points for a prideful and talented defense. The Chiefs have won eight of nine, but only two wins since Week 1 were by two-plus TDs. 

Best Bet: Broncos +13.5

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

Tagovailoa went into concussion protocol following a game in which he tossed three INTs in a home loss to the Packers, Miami’s fourth-straight defeat. New England has won just once in its last five games, and that was against downtrodden Arizona. 

The Pats have yet to beat a team in a playoff spot; Teddy Bridgewater is a highly-capable Tua replacement. 

Best Bet: Dolphins +2.5

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

The Colts are a total debacle under Jeff Saturday and his carousel of QBs. But can we really trust the Giants? They’re a great covering team but usually as underdogs, and are just 1-1 as favorites since Week 3. 

Still, they’re playing well and know how to win, and the matchups are good enough. Indy may not score in the cold with Nick Foles. 

Best Bet: Giants -5.5

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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

The Saints have won two straight to stay in the hunt thanks to their defense. The offense hasn’t done much of anything; the last four New Orleans games have averaged 28 ppg. The Eagles are averaging 29.7 ppg on the season and 35.7 the last three weeks. The Saints can’t keep up. 

Best Bet: Eagles -7

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 p.m. (FOX) 

Carolina rolled Tampa 21-3 in Charlotte earlier this year, so why not again? We know what Tom Brady can do, but the Bucs have managed 16.6 ppg the last three weeks. 

Sam Darnold’s Panthers have hit 30-plus in two of the last three weeks. We know what the Bucs offense can do. 

Best Bet: Over 39


RELATED: Best NFL Parlay Bets To Back Today


Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

The Browns hoped to be competing for a lot more than draft placement heading into Week 17. But they’re not, the offensive line is in shambles and the defense has become a sieve to opposing rushers. 

Washington has overachieved for Ron Rivera, so at home and motivated, why not again? 

This will be the first Browns game after Ohio sports betting goes live at midnight on Jan. 1 - make sure to check out these best Ohio sportsbook promo codes before wagering on this one.

Best Bet: Commanders -2.5

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

Give credit to Lovie Smith and the Texans, who just beat the playoff-contending Titans and have covered in three straight. Still, there’s not much in the tank here, and the Jaguars – who have won and covered three straight – are coming out. Too much going right for J’ville to fade here. 

Best Bet: Jaguars -4

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San Francisco Giants at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Nobody is keeping up with the 49ers, who have won eight in a row and covered the spread in six straight, including three times at -6.5 or higher. The Raiders looked like they were rebounding, but have since lost 17-16 to the Rams and 13-10 to the Steelers. 

SF has won four of five road games by an average of 15.8 ppg. 

Best Bet: 49ers -6

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New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Playoff contenders by the skin of their teeth. The Jets have lost four in a row, the Seahawks three straight, though all were to playoff contenders/qualifiers. The Under has hit in all four Seattle games when facing a Top 12 defense; the Jets rank No. 4. The Under is also on a 3-0 run in New York games. 

Best Bet: Under 42.5

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

The Packers are favored against a team that’s five games ahead of them in the standings and rolled them 23-7 earlier this season? The Vikings aren’t fooling oddsmakers; they’re 11-0 in one-score games but dominant they are not. 

This will be a key test for the Packers defense, which ranks No. 1 vs. the pass. Both teams could put up serious points. 

Best Bet: Over 48

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Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

The Chargers are coming off a short week in which they clinched a playoff berth. This could be a big letdown spot – if they weren’t taking on their cross-stadium rivals. The Chargers have become successful due to defense; they’ve won three straight without scoring over 23 points. That can happen here again. 

Best Bet: Under 41

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

This is a huge game for the Steelers, who need to win to keep any playoff hopes alive. But the Ravens are playing for something, too – a division championship and first-round home game. No Lamar Jackson has made Baltimore’s offense real ugly (17, 3, 16 and 10 points the last four weeks). 

But the defense has been awesome. Kenny Pickett on the road vs. playoff-contending teams is 0-3 with an average margin of -21 ppg. 

Best Bet: Ravens -3

Monday, January 2

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

What a game to wrap up Week 17 - and Bengals fans in Ohio will be able to legally wager on their team for the first time with Ohio betting apps after the New Year's Day launch. 

But sorry Cincinnati, it almost feels like people are sleeping on the Bills, who have now won six in a row. They have just three losses, all by a FG or less. Cincy has won seven straight and hasn’t fallen at home since Week 1. 

If we’re talking matchups, however, Cincy’s lack of a consistent rush attack, and a mediocre pass defense, gives a big boost to the road team. 

Best Bet: Bills -1

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.