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Ranking Every NFL Head Coach Against The Spread

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 7 mins

Ranking Every NFL Head Coach Against The Spread

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Which active NFL coach owns the best career record against the spread? Hint: He's done it while coaching for two legendary franchises. 

We're tracking every NFL head coach and computing each week how much money you would have won or lost backing them ATS in each of their regular season and postseason games. There are five teams with new coaches this NFL betting season. The league’s elder statesman in terms of head coaching service is New England’s Bill Belichick. He is in his 23rd season with New England and his 28th overall as an NFL head coach.

The best NFL coach against the spread is Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys' head coach is 168-90-7 (63.2%) ATS in 15 seasons. McCarthy coached the Packers for 13 seasons from 2006-18 and took off one season before joining the Cowboys in 2020. 

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The Cowboys have the best percentage ATS in the NFL going back to the start of last season. Dallas is now 21-7 (74.0%) vs. the betting line in its past 28 games.

Using our system of betting $100 ATS with the industry standard -110 line, those who backed teams coached by McCarthy would be up $6,288 over his career. All of our numbers in this analysis include the postseason. 

Matt Rhule fell to the bottom of our list of veteran coaches after the Panthers lost at home to the 49ers in Week 5. He was subsequently fired by the Panthers after Carolina fell to 1-4 overall and ATS, and 0-3 at home. 

Rhule's replacement, Steve Wilks, coached the Cardinals in 2018. Wilks' team went 3-13 overall but stood 7-8-1 ATS. 

Jeff Saturday, who has never coached above the high school level, replaced Frank Reich as head coach of the Colts this week. 

All 2022 NFL Head Coaches ATS

Here is a look at all 2022-23 NFL head coaches listed by their career percentage against the spread, including the postseason. This list is updated each week during the 2022 season. Each coach is listed with his current team, overall record against the spread, cover percentage, and the amount of money a would-be bettor would have won or lost backing them each week of their NFL career, using the above formula. 

We have broken out the five first-year coaches in a separate chart below.

Not all betting lines are created equally. For this project, we used the archived weekly Las Vegas consensus lines, according to Pro Football Reference. 

Feel free to bookmark this page and consult it when planning wagers, making NFL picks, or checking out the upcoming week's NFL lines.

CoachTeamATS RecordATS Win %$ Won/Lost
1. Mike McCarthyDAL168-90-763.26288.00
2. Mike TomlinPIT154-107-557.83314.00
3. (Tie) Pete CarrollSEA145-99-13 56.43,295.00
3. (Tie) Matt LaFleurGB35-25-2 56.4685.00
3. (Tie) Zac TaylorCIN35-26-156.4494.00
6. Sean McDermottBUF53-39-455.21123.00
7. Bill BelichickNE272-214-1054.83352.00
8. Dan CampbellDET22-19 53.6102.00
9. Andy ReidKC220-185-753.31429.00
10. Mike VrabelTEN41-36-152.5131.00
11. Brandon StaleyLAC13-1252.0-17.00
12. Frank ReichIND38-34-350.658.00
13. (Tie) Sean McVayLAR50-45-4 50.550.00
13. (Tie) Kyle ShanahanSF48-46-150.5-86.00
15. (Tie) Nick SirianniPHI13-12-150.0-16.00
15. (Tie) Doug PedersonJAX46-4650.0-714.00
17. Kliff KingsburyARI29-28-249.1 -161.00
18. John HarbaughBAL121-124-8 47.6-1389.00
19. Ron RiveraWAS90-95-5 47.3-1310.00
20. (Tie) Arthur SmithATL12-13-1 46.1-208.00
20. (Tie) Robert SalehNYJ12-14 46.1-690.00
22. Lovie SmithHOU87-97-5 46.0-1783.00
23. Steve WilksCAR9-10-1 45.010.00
24. Josh McDanielsLVR16-20 44.4-544.00
25. Todd BowlesTB32-39-442.6-988.00
26. Kevin StefanskiCLE18-2541.8-202.00
27. Dennis AllenNO18-27 40.0-1062.00
28. Matt RhuleCAR13-24-134.2-1046.00

NFL First-Year Coaches ATS

Here's a look at the five new head coaches this season. The five coaches are 20-20-2 (47.6%) ATS combined, for a net loss of $180.

CoachTeamATS RecordATS Win %$ Won/Lost
1. Brian DabollNYG6-275.0346.00
2. (Tie) Mike McDanielMIA4-544.4-236.00
2. (Tie) Matt Eberflus CHI4-4-144.4-127.00
4. (Tie) Nathaniel Hackett DEN3-5 37.5-227.00
4. (Tie) Kevin O'Connell MIN3-4-137.5 -127.00

Packer Backers Awash In Green

Going back to McCarthy’s first season in Green Bay through this season so far under LaFleur, the Packers have torched oddsmakers and betting apps.

The Packers are 175-90-8 ATS since 2006 under the leadership of McCarthy and LaFleur. That’s an astonishing 64.1% ATS, despite this season's terrible start. Using our formula, Packer Backers would be up $6,934 had they wagered $100 using the industry standard odds of -110 ATS on Green Bay each week since 2006.  

To remain employed as an NFL head coach, one must win games. And those coaches who have done so have also done well against the line. Three out of the five best coaches in the NFL ATS (Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll and McCarthy) have at least 15 seasons of coaching experience.

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Here are some key numbers to note:

  • Combined, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are 485-364-19 (56.1%) ATS in 865 NFL starts. Had you backed them both each week of their careers, you would be up $7,735.00 using the above formula. Brady is 213-150-9 (57.2%) ATS in his 372 starts with the Patriots and Buccaneers. Brady and Belichick were in New England together from 2000-19.
  • The NFL has five new coaches this year:  Kevin O'Connell of the Vikings; Mike McDaniel of the Dolphins; Denver's Nathaniel Hackett; Brian Daboll of the Giants and Matt Eberflus in Chicago. Three (O'Connell, McDaniel and Hackett) are younger than Brady. Only one (Daboll) is over .500 ATS.
  • Of the 29 NFL head coaches with experience before Week 1 of this season, 16 of them were hitting at least 50% ATS.
  • Pete Carroll is the oldest coach in the NFL. He turned 71 this season. Carroll has coached three teams since 1994: The Patriots, Jets and Seahawks. He’s been in Seattle since 2010. Carroll is tied-third on our list at 145-99-13 (56.4%) ATS. Bettors backing Carroll as an NFL head coach would be up $3,295.00 using our formula. Carroll enjoyed a nine-year run of finishing above .500 straight-up before last season’s 7-10 finish.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.