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NFL Conference Championship Betting Takeaways: Over Rules

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

NFL Conference Championship Betting Takeaways: Over Rules

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The 2020 Super Bowl is set, with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs facing off for the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 2 in Miami.

The Chiefs have won eight in a row by an average of 16.2 ppg, and all by at least a TD. The 49ers have taken four in a row with dominating playoff wins over the Vikings and Packers, each by 17.

RELATED: Chiefs open as slight favorites over 49ers in Super Bowl 54; you can see the latest Super Bowl 2020 Odds here

Offense has won championships lately. The Patriots shocked the Rams with a 13-3 Super Bowl win last year, but the previous six title games had averaged 56.3 ppg.

Here’s a look back at Conference Championship weekend and a quick look ahead to Super Bowl 2020:

Streaks Live On …

Chiefs Roll Again

Kansas City won again and in convincing fashion. The Chiefs are now 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games and 6-0-1 in their last seven when favored In NFL betting. They’ll head into next season having won 15 of 16 at home in Sunday day games.

49ers Get It Done When It Matters

San Francisco had some late-season hiccups, including a surprising home loss to the Falcons in Week 16 and two last-minute victories over the Cardinals. But it continues to get it done. The 49ers improved to 6-1 ATS in its last seven against above-.500 teams. The favorite has now won eight-straight Niners games — not the best omen for the Super Bowl (SF is +1).

Over Is The Way

The Over hit in both conference championship games — again. The previous five NFC Championships had averaged a whopping 54.6 ppg, and none have been lower than 45 points. Sunday’s Packers-Niners game produced 57 points. The average AFC title game over the past five seasons is a hefty 51.0. The Titans and Chiefs combined for 59.

The Over hit for the 10th time in 11 Titans day games and for the eighth time in 11 Packers-49ers showdowns.

RELATED: Where You Can Legally Bet on Super Bowl 54

… And Streaks End

NFL Conference Championship Betting Takeaways: Over Rules 1
A swarming Chiefs defense gave up just 69 rushing yards to Derrick Henry of the Titans.

Titans Runs End

Tennessee had been red-hot since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB and Derrick Henry became the offense’s heavy focal point. The Titans led the Chiefs 17-7 but couldn’t keep up in a 35-24 loss (at +7). They had covered the spread in their last five road games and seven of nine overall.

Packers-Niners Flip Roles

The Packers were 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with winning records. The 49ers were just 7-19-1 in their last 27 as the favorites. Those trends didn’t keep up on Sunday in San Francisco’s 37-20 win.

Standout Pass-Catchers Take Backseats

Chiefs star TE Travis Kelce had scored a TD in four straight games after a KC home win. Titans WR A.J. Brown had TDs in four straight day games. 49ers TE George Kittle had scored in four of seven and Kendrick Bourne had TDs in three of four day games vs. the NFC. All were shut out on Sunday.

RBs Raheem Mostert and Aaron Jones accounted for six of the seven TDs in the NFC game. The recession-proof Tyreek Hill had two TD receptions for the Chiefs.

Best Pick Of Conference Championship Weekend

49ers (-7.5) over Packers

Quarterback was the only position the Packers seemed to have an advantage over the 49ers. But Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight passes because San Francisco’s run game — namely Raheem Mostert — was unstoppable. Aaron Rodgers didn’t have much of a chance against a healthy Niners defense. It was 27-0 at halftime, made closer at the end after the 49ers took the pedal off the gas.

Worst Pick Of Conference Championship Weekend

Packers-49ers Under 45.5 Points

I had a strong feeling the Packers wouldn’t score a ton of points — they were dominated by this Niners defense just a few weeks ago and were averaging just 21 ppg the last eight weeks. But the Packers simply couldn’t slow down Mostert. After building their massive lead, the Niners allowed the Packers back into the game late with lax defense. Give Rodgers an inch and he’ll take a yard. The Over cashed by the third quarter.

A Quick Look Ahead

Lines change throughout the week. Here are two to consider for the Super Bowl before they move:

49ers-Chiefs Over 53.5

The O/U exploded after being posted closer to 51 on Sunday evening. Super Bowls have generated major points lately, and these teams trend that way, as well. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last six games and 7-2 in Chiefs games when they face above-.500 teams.

NFL Conference Championship Betting Takeaways: Over Rules 2
The 49ers defense harassed Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers every time he dropped back Sunday. Can it do the same against the Chiefs?

Chiefs -1 over 49ers

The Chiefs defense has its issues, but it hasn’t mattered during Kansas City’s dominating eight-game win streak. The Niners have been awesome in the postseason as well, but go against Patrick Mahomes at your own risk at this point. If you’re going to back Kansas City, waiting may cost you a point. The numbers should shift as early money comes in, so be sure to check out the latest Super Bowl Odds.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.