NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks & Tips: Your Best Bets

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Playing on a Saturday vs. a Sunday doesn’t sound like a huge deal for the NFL Playoffs. Turns out, it can be. Home teams have dominated against NFL spreads on Saturday, but the road teams have pulled through on Sundays – and neither day is particularly close.

Since 2011, the home team has covered the spread a ridiculous 76% of the time on Saturday. The script is flipped for Sundays, however, where the road team is a winner 72.4% vs. the spread for NFL betting fans.

That’s good news for the Titans and Packers on Saturday, and for the Rams and Bills on Sunday.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on a whopping 62.1% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season, finishing over 60% in each of the last three seasons. Here are his five best bets at sportsbooks and betting sites for Divisional Round Weekend:

RELATED: NFL Divisional Round Predictions For Every Game

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Best Bets To Back

Titans ATS over Bengals

The Bengals have figured it out, and Joe Burrow is playing as well as any QB in the NFL. But this is their first foray into road playoff football; Cincy was far worse on the road this regular season, especially defensively.

Tennessee finally has its full arsenal of weapons. When Julio Jones and A.J. Brown were both available, the Titans went 7-1 with wins over the Bills, Chiefs, 49ers and Rams. (Locked in at -3.5 at DraftKings)

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Titans-Bengals Over

I’m on the Titans, but I’m also on Burrow and his receivers having a big day. Neither team is consistent vs. the pass, and Derrick Henry is obviously a difference maker. Tennessee games with Jones-Brown-Henry all active averaged 50 ppg, and that includes when it beat KC 27-3. (Locked in at 47 at bet365)

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Packers ATS over 49ers

This spread on betting apps looked right where it should be, but then Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury status and the zero degree temps came into play. The line moved a measly half-point, so suddenly there’s value on a Green Bay side that’s won all its home games by an average of two TDs.

The Niners have been tough since Deebo Samuel joined the run game, but the Packers’ 10th-ranked run defense is underrated and they get their top LB and top CB back from injury. Green Bay has too much firepower and too much to prove. (Locked in at -5.5 at SugarHouse)

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Rams ATS over Buccaneers

Going against Tom Brady in the playoffs is always a risk, but this one is going to be a challenge for him. He’s down two of his top WRs, and the third will be hounded by top CB Jalen Ramsey. His top offensive linemen and potentially top RB could also be out or limited.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford faces a bottom-10 pass defense that he torched for 343 yards and four TDs earlier this year. Get the full FG with L.A. (Locked in at +3 at BetMGM)

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Bills ATS over Chiefs

Playoffs Patrick Mahomes is a different animal, but he now faces the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL, one that has shut down top WRs, corralled pass-catching TEs and allowed just 12 pass TDs all year. Buffalo has won five straight, each by at least a TD, including a demolition of the Patriots’ top-five defense, twice.

The matchups favor the Bills, and Josh Allen (who had four TDs vs. KC earlier this season) is in a spot to take the next step. You can find great odds on New York betting apps, several of which recently launched in the Empire State. (Locked in at +2.5 at DraftKings)

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.