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Week 3 NFL 2023 Betting Analysis & Takeaways: Taylor Swift Effect

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 7 mins

Week 3 NFL 2023 Betting Analysis & Takeaways: Taylor Swift Effect

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The Power of The Shield has met its match in Taylor Swift. Her appearance with the Kelce family at the Chiefs game in Kansas City became the dominant NFL talking point in Week 3.

Sure, the Chiefs (-12.5) rolled to an easy NFL betting cover over the hapless Bears 41-10. Yet, all eyes were fixated not on the red-clad players but on the RED TS.

Her purported romance with Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is now as public as public gets. While she once sang about an Eagles jersey, she showed up at Arrowhead in full Kelce swag. Gotta believe the folks at Fanatics will be working over time to crank out No. 87 Swift jerseys, if not "Fearless" Same Game Parlays.

The Swifties Were Watching In KC

The Taylor Swift Effect reached into betting world. Just ask Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs led 34-0 Sunday in the third quarter. Garbage time was upon us.

An 11-play, 64-yard scoring drive closed with a 3-yard scoring pass to Kelce. That final catch of the day pushed Kelce over his pre-game total of 6.5 catches (-110) and 0.5 TDs (-120).

Mahomes said he knew the Swifties were watching.

"I felt a little bit of pressure. I knew I had to get it to Trav. Of course, he does his own thing and just makes up a route and I throw it to him. I think he wanted to get into the end zone as much as all the Swifties wanted him to," Mahomes told Erin Andrews of FOX.

Expect the price on "Anytime TD" for Kelce to spike this week against the Jets - especially if Swift shows up at MetLife.

Who Needs Aaron Rodgers?

Whether she is in love or just like with Kelce is the talk among Swifties today. Swift long ago transformed from cultural icon to economic force. Her impact can never be overestimated. Oddsmakers are ready in case it hits the sportsbook.

"Ms. Swift won’t make any difference from a betting perspective. She’ll take up a lot of air time on sports talk shows but it won’t affect the betting market one bit. Although I won’t turn away any Chiefs action from Swifties if they so choose to get involved," Borgata AC Director of Race and Sports Book Thomas Gable told bookies.com Sunday night.

Gable isn't planning on any "1989" parlays, however.

DraftKings couldn't escape Taylor Mania. But her impact on betting reamins TBD.

"Lots of engagement with our customers for week three of NFL, so that’s always good," DraftKings Senior Director of Communications Stephen Miraglia told bookies.com via email.

The Chiefs game was the second-most bet game on the book by handle and fourth-most bet game by handle.

"There was speculation about (Taylor) Swift attending but probably pretty hard at this point to know if she drove action on the game," Miraglia added.

The Chiefs were popular at BetFanatics, as was the Kelce Anytime TD score prop. Kevin Hennessy wasn't ready to see any relation between Swift's affinity for Kelce and the public's affection for the Chiefs.


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Books Strike Back In Week 3

Week 3 NFL 2023 Betting Analysis & Takeaways: Taylor Swift Effect 1

Overall in Week 3, favorites held an 8-6 edge in NFL spreads outcomes after the Sunday games. The financial tide substantially swung toward the books overall. Key betting favorites Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Dallas all lost outright, wiping out parlays from coast-to-coast.

The biggest spread liability for several betting sites and betting apps occurred in Glendale, Arizona. The visiting Cowboys lost outright as 13-point favorites. They carried 87% of the betting handle at DraftKings.

The book gave some of that back as the Kansas City Swifties nabbed their easy cover, as it did on New England (-2.5) beating the Jets 15-10 (76% on the handle), Buffalo (-5.5, 71%), Miami (-5.5, 75%) and Seattle (-5, 71%).

The Dolphins were the second-biggest winners on the day - after the Swifities - as they hung a post-NFL merger record 70 points on the Bad News Broncos in a 50-point victory.

At BetFanatics, the public backed the Ravens, Cowboys, Bills and Chiefs with mixed results. Its top five TD scorer props saw three player reach the end zone, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Kelce.

The public held an edge over BetMGM on two of its top three most-bet games handle-wise. Cash went out on the Dolphins crushing their 6-point line and the Lions -3 bouncing back against the Falcons. The book clawed back on the Titans (+3.5) losing 27-3 at Cleveland.

Tipico saw its cusomters wager 81% of their overall player prop wagers on the total's over. Its top three most bet on players in the Anytime TD marker were Christian McCaffrey, Jefferson and Kelce. The public backed off road teams at the book, wagering just 41% of the moneyline handle on the visitors, down 16% from Week 3.

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Highs And Lows ATS

Heading into the Monday night games, there were seven NFL teams that have yet to cover this season, and five teams that were perfect on the line.

Here’s a breakdown :

TeamATS SU ATS +/-
Miami Dolphins3-03-0+18.2
Arizona Cardinals3-01-2+9.3
Green Bay Packers3-02-1+7.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2-02-0+7.3
New Orleans Saints0-2-12-1-1.5
Minnesota Vikings0-2-10-3-3.7
Carolina Panthers0-2-10-3-5.3
Cincinnati Bengals0-20-2-13.5
Chicago Bears0-30-3-15.0
NY Giants0-31-2-15.5
Denver Broncos0-30-3-18.0

The Dolphins are the only 3-0/3-0 team in the league, pending the outcome of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Philadelphia Eagles game Monday. Who needs Tom Brady? The Bucs had the worst winning percentage ATS last season.


Survivor Pool Update

A whopping 2,421 players in the Circa Sports Survivor pool were sunk for 2023 as the host Jaguars had too many problems with Houston in a 27-6 loss.

The Jaguars were the No. 1 play of the week. The Ravens took out another 621 players when the lost to the Colts in OT.

Notable Week 3 Wagers

Here are some notable Week 3 winners:

  • Payout $494,841.75: Carindals +12.5 over Cowboys ($253,455.53 wagered +105) at DraftKings
  • Payout $20,500: Colts ML over Ravens ($5,000 wagered +310) at DraftKings
  • Payout $10,700: Anytime TD Parlay $10 wagered on Brevin Jordon (+5000) & Jimmy Graham (+2000) at DraftKings }

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.