NFL Week 9 Sunday Predictions: 5 Must-Bets To Make
Adam Thompson | 6 mins
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Aaron Rodgers is worth about 7.5 points, according to top sportsbooks in the US who had to quickly adjust the NFL line in the Week 9 showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs.
When news broke Wednesday that Rodgers would miss the marquee game of the week due to COVID-19, the line was Packers PK or +1 at many sites. Within minutes, the line adjusted to as high as +8 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
To put that number to a comparison, two years ago Tom Brady was considered to be worth six points in his prime with the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes was at seven points. Rodgers at that time led the way at 7.5. In an ESPN story done three years ago, Rodgers and Brady were each worth about eight points on the spread. We’ll see how accurate the betting sites are, if the Packers can cover with Jordan Love under center.
Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on 61% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and finished over 60% the last three seasons. Here are his five best wagers to make on the top sports betting apps in the US:
RELATED: NFL Week 9 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game
NFL Week 9 Sunday Best Bets
Saints ATS over Falcons
Trevor Siemian can’t entirely replace Jameis Winston, but Winston ranked 21st in QBR in relation to throwing the ball. New Orleans ranked 31st in passing yards with Winston, and Sieman stepped in and led the Saints to a win over the Buccaneers. If he can do that, he certainly can fare well vs. a Falcons team that’s 27th in points allowed.
No Calvin Ridley makes it far tougher on Matt Ryan. The Saints have beaten the Falcons in six of seven, with five of those wins by at least six points. (Locked in at -6 at PointsBet)
Broncos ATS over Cowboys
Denver beat Washington last week but it wasn’t pretty. The Broncos haven’t looked great in four weeks, but the pieces are there to hang. Any team with a defense that ranks top 10 vs. both the run and the pass has a chance to hang.
Dallas has an overpowering offense but it’s 23rd in red zone TD percentage (Denver’s red zone D ranks 7th). That’s a big reason why three of their six wins were in OT or by four points or less. Teddy Bridgewater, for all his issues, remains the king of road covers on NFL betting sites, so keep that in mind. (Locked in at +10 at BetMGM) ➜
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Browns ATS over Bengals
Cleveland’s offense is not working right now. Nick Chubb is back but the O-line has lingering injury issues, Baker Mayfield is not 100% and Odell Beckham Jr. is causing a distraction (huge surprise, I know). But the Browns still should have beaten Pittsburgh – dropped passes were huge – and they still possess a No. 3-ranked defense and the backfield personnel to make sure Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t go off.
On the flip side, Cincy’s defense just got lit up by the Jets. It should be refocused here but it should also give Cleveland a needed confidence boost. Get a full field goal where you can. (Locked in at +3 at BetMGM) ➜
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Chargers ATS over Eagles
Philly rebounded in a huge way last week, but keep in mind the opposition – the Lions are the worst team in football by a wide margin. The Chargers are due for their own bounce-back after two losses. There is concern about the Eagles’ run game but most of it comes from the QB and L.A. has been OK at containing running QBs.
Justin Herbert is in a spot to get back on track and Austin Ekeler could have a big day out of the backfield; the Eagles have allowed more RB receptions than any other team. (Locked in at -1.5 at SugarHouse)
Patriots ATS over Panthers
We got a glimpse of what P.J. Walker can do in a spot in Week 7 vs. the Giants. He went 3-of-14 and was sacked three times. Christian McCaffrey may return this week, allowing us to get New England at a lower price.
Even if he does return, CMC averaged 3.9 yards per carry before his injury – the O-line issues in Carolina are too much. The Panthers’ defense is strong but the Pats are scoring 33.8 ppg over the last four weeks. (Locked in at -3.5 at BetMGM) ➜
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