Pittsburgh Steelers At Kansas City Chiefs Free Picks & Betting Predictions
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The Chiefs are the latest team to be decimated by COVID, hitting some of the bigger players on their team. The Steelers still have life in the AFC but battle an increasingly tough division around them. The Chiefs haven’t slowed down winning games, as much as they were an early-season liability covering.
Anyone making their NFL picks factoring in this game should keep an eye on the Chiefs' COVID situation. Most sportsbooks have the Chiefs laying the hook at home, where they are still just 3-5 ATS.
This is one of the sharper NFL spreads on the books this week as Pittsburgh doesn’t have the shootout capability to hang with the Chiefs, most likely being an 8 to 9-point true dog.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, and especially for anyone involved in any NFL betting action featuring this game – there could be significant absences including Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Check out the latest Chiefs vs Steelers odds, betting lines, injury report and more.
Steelers vs Chiefs Key Matchups
Chiefs Availability vs Steelers: The Steelers may be handed a gift with the Chiefs down so many players, but Pittsburgh’s rush defense may not be good enough to counter the Chiefs.
Chiefs Pass O vs Steelers Pass D: We know how dangerous Patrick Mahomes is with the football, no matter the players around him. The Steelers do have the 13th-best pass defense in the NFL, which could make things interesting if KC is down Hill.
Big Ben vs Spags: While the Chiefs offense boasts these big names and top talents, it’s been the Chiefs defense that’s acted as the rock during this successful stretch for KC. Expect another aggressive afternoon from the Chiefs defense, putting a lot of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.
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Steelers vs Chiefs Key Stats
31st: The Steelers and running the ball just don’t mix. They can’t run the ball, nor can they stop anyone on the ground. It’s crazy to think about how bad they are on offense with one of the league’s bright young stars in Najee Harris. Pittsburgh is 31st in rush D and Rush O.
3: The Chiefs could realistically be down three of their top four players come Sunday afternoon in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Jones.
3rd: With all the early-season struggles from the Chiefs offense, they are still 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game. Mahomes is 5th in the league heading into this week in passing yards.
30:13: This is Mahomes' TD to INT ratio in the 14 games he’s played this year. A tough matchup for a Steelers team that isn’t great against the pass.
302: This could be the “Mahomes” game with so many skill players around him out, so take note the man can run. He’s third on the team with 302 rushing yards this year, at an average of 5.5 YPC.
19: Not the best year for Big Ben as in 13 games he’s yet to hit the 20-touchdown mark, while throwing seven interceptions.
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Steelers vs Chiefs Moneyline
The break at any of the major betting sites would be to jump in early this week, hoping (betting only) that the Chiefs don’t have anyone available. You still have to consider postponement, especially for a team with so many high-profile players.
But if even one of Hill/Kelce are playing, you have to take the Chiefs in a parlay or simply stay away from the Steelers. If you think KC will just go into this missing key players, and the NFL will make them play, then getting ahead of any line movement now makes the most sense.
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Steelers vs Chiefs Spread
This is the same mentality with the moneyline except a little easier to just lay the 7.5 points for the Chiefs. But again, if you like the Chiefs, you are better off waiting for any official COVID announcements on who won’t play.
The line should move through 7 if neither Hill nor Kelce are available, especially if Jones is also out on Sunday. You don’t gain a ton of value by jumping on Pittsburgh now, as they will need more than 8 points to stay in this game.
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Steelers vs Chiefs Total
This is the one bet most dependent on who is going to be out there playing. Without any idea of Hill and Kelce, it’s tough to take a side. Pittsburgh will keep the ball and try to give their defense a break against Mahomes. The Chiefs will either be up big and slow things down or working the offense through backups or more tertiary options.
If you get both Hill and Kelce playing, it’s just a little more work to get Under 44, but it’s still the right move. Pittsburgh will do a lot of holding onto the ball and won’t net many points as a result. The Chiefs may score low 20s but it’s plenty to beat the Steelers.
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