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Pittsburgh Steelers At Minnesota Vikings Free Picks & TNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

Pittsburgh Steelers At Minnesota Vikings Free Picks & TNF Predictions

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Fringe playoff contenders face off in a critical inter-conference Thursday Night Football matchup for Week 14, when Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings host Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Vikings (5-7) return home after losing in walk-off fashion to the previously winless Detroit Lions. The Steelers (6-5-1), meanwhile, won in the final seconds, a 20-19 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. The Vikings are in the No. 9 spot in the NFC Playoff race, while the Steelers are at No. 8 in the AFC. The top seven teams qualify.

Sportsbooks opened with Minnesota as a 3.5-point home favorite, but some betting sites and leading betting apps have moved the line to -3.

Take a look at Vikings vs. Steelers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Steelers vs. Vikings Key Matchups

Najee Harris vs. Steelers playcalling: The Steelers are 6-0-1 when the rookie RB gets 16 or more carries. When he receives 15 or fewer, they’re 0-5.

Diontae Johnson vs. Vikings DBs: Johnson’s 76 receptions is nearly double any other Pittsburgh pass-catcher and he has 42 more targets than anyone else.

Kirk Cousins vs. Steelers DBs: Minnesota hasn’t won a game in which Cousins hasn’t passed for over 250 yards. Pittsburgh’s pass defense allows 252 ypg, but under that mark in three of the last four games.

RELATED: NFL Week 14 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game

5 Key Steelers vs. Vikings Stats

2: Interceptions by Ben Roethlisberger in the last seven games, and they were both in the same game. Roethlisberger has led the NFL in picks on two occasions.

3: Interceptions by Kirk Cousins on the entire season, paired with 25 touchdowns. No other QB with at least 25 TDs has fewer than nine INTs.

17: TD receptions combined for Adam Thielen (10) and Justin Jefferson (7), each ranking in the top 10 in the NFL. The Vikings are the only team with two WRs in the top 10 in receiving TDs.

190: Yards to opposing WRs allowed by the Vikings defense. That’s the second-highest total in the NFL, below only the Titans.

315: Yards rushing by Alexander Mattison in three starts, with at least 90 in each. He averages 4.3 yards per carry as a starter this year, as opposed to 2.4 as a backup for Dalvin Cook.

Steelers vs. Vikings Weather Forecast

Weather won’t be a factor inside the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, where it will be without weather and a balmy 72 degrees. Fans and players will be happy to get indoors with Sunday night’s forecast calling for temperatures in the upper 30s, dropping to around 32 by kickoff. At least it won’t be snowing.

RELATED: NFL Week 14 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

Steelers vs. Vikings Player Props

Alexander Mattison & Najee Harris, Over 50 Rush Yards Each

Odds: +137 at FOX Bet ➜

Mattison has gained at least 90 yards in every start and will be the bell cow here. The Steelers offense goes as Najee Harris goes. To get plus odds on this is a gift.

Justin Jefferson, Over 90.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel ➜

Without Adam Thielen out there, Jefferson had 11 catches for 182 yards last week. He’s averaging 144.3 ypg the last four weeks and will be the unquestioned top target for Kirk Cousins.

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Kirk Cousins, Under 0.5 Interceptions

Odds: -160 at BetMGM ➜

Cousins tosses an INT an average of once every four games, with only one in the last seven games. The Steelers have just six INTs in 12 games.

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Steelers vs. Vikings Moneyline

The Vikings are -160 on the moneyline, meaning a $160 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the visiting Steelers are at +140 ($100 wins $140 in profit).

On paper, the Vikings are the better team, and they’re at home. But few teams are as inconsistent. In the last three weeks alone, they’ve beaten the Packers and lost to the Lions. The Steelers just beat the Ravens, but fell to the Bengals by 31 the week prior. We like Minnesota to win, but not enough to lay a bet at this price.

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Steelers vs. Vikings Point Spread

When it comes to NFL spreads the Vikings are -3 here. Minnesota has been -3 or higher on four occasions this season – and hasn’t covered a single time, losing straight-up in three of those games.

Still, the matchups favor Minnesota. While each QB could have opportunities, Cousins and his weapons are better. The run game favors the Vikings as well. Recent spread history favors Pittsburgh, but on the field, Minnesota is in a better spot. Those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider Minnesota. You can get Minnesota -3 at FanDuel. ➜

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Steelers vs. Vikings Totals

The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 44.5 points, only two points higher than the lowest total of Week 14. Frankly, it’s too low.

Combined, these teams average 46 ppg, while allowing 49.2 ppg, a number that’s risen over the last few weeks. Scoring has been down in Minneapolis, but not enough to warrant such a drop, especially if the Steelers can hold their own.

The last four Minnesota games have all hit at least 47 points and averaged 57. Under has been profitable on Thursdays but the Over looks like the better side for your NFL betting Week 14 TNF ticket. You can get Over 44.5 (-110) at BetMGM. ➜

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.
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