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How Much Would You Make Betting On Russell Wilson Each Week?
Bill Speros | 14 mins
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Russell Wilson has jumped to the Mile High City and expectations for the Denver Broncos are back to their Peyton Manning Era highs. But what can Colorado sports bettors and Broncos backers expect this NFL betting season? Will Wilson lead the Broncos to the top of the AFC West heap? Or will the Broncos struggle on the field and against the spread?
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Wilson performed against NFL lines in his career, all which has taken place to date in Seattle, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Wilson is 90-78-6 against the spread in his 164 NFL career starts, all with Seattle. That’s a deep slide from his 113-60-1 record overall. These numbers include 16 postseason games and Seattle’s 43-8 rout of Denver in Super Bowl 48. But even in that game, MVP honors went to Seahawks’ linebacker Malcolm Smith, who had nine tackles, a fumble recovery, and a pick-six off Peyton Manning.
Backing Wilson A Winning (But Disappointing) Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Wilson ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed Wilson each week are up a pedestrian $381. since his NFL debut in 2012. Barely worth the effort over a decade. Wilson’s winning percentage is 51.7% ATS but 64.2% overall.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using historic records against the spread for each game Wilson has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Broncos begin this season with new ownership (a Wal-Mart heir) and a new coach (Nathaniel Hackett) to accompany Russell. They are in the stacked-a-mile-high AFC West. That division includes two other new head coaches, in addition to Hackett.
RELATED: NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines
Oddsmakers place the Broncos among the second-tier teams in the AFC this season. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, Denver is priced at +1700 at DraftKings ➜ to win it all. Meanwhile, BetMGM has the Broncos at +850 to win the AFC, ➜ and +280 to win the AFC West, ➜ behind the Chargers and favored Chiefs.
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2022 win totals and playoff odds for the Broncos and Wilson. All bets in these categories are valid whether or not the Broncos play a 17-game NFL schedule.
| Win Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 10 Wins | -110 at DraftKings ➜ |
| Under 10 Wins | -110 at DraftKings ➜ |
| Make Playoffs | Yes | -145 at DraftKings ➜ |
| No | +120 at DraftKings ➜ |
Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication.
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The deal that moved Wilson to Denver rocked the AFC West, the AFC, and the entire NFL. The Broncos became contenders once the deal cleared the league office. Wilson’s professionalism and overall commitment to winning has spread like COVID through the Broncos organization.
The Broncos likely have the stingiest defense in the AFC West and that nasty home-field advantage.
Go with the over on 10 wins at -110 at DraftKings ➜ for the Broncos in 2022, and back them to make the playoffs at -145 at DraftKings ➜ as well.
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Russell Wilson 2022 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Wilson, and how best to play them this season.
Russell Wilson Props: Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Wilson this season:
| Russell Wilson Passing TDs | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 31.5 | -110 at DraftKings ➜ |
| Under 31.5 | -120 at DraftKings ➜ |
Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review for more information.
Wilson missed three starts last season due to a finger injury. It was the first time in his career he was sidelined or missed a start. Add in the fact the Seahawks were incapable of moving the ball, Wilson’s numbers last season aren’t worth much when trying to figure out his limits this season.
Wilson has gone over this number three times in the past five seasons. Take the over on Wilson throwing 31.5 TD passes at -110 at DraftKings. ➜ That’s fewer than 2 TDs per game.
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Russell Wilson Props: Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Wilson this season:
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 4,100.5 Yards | -112 at DraftKings ➜ |
| Under 4,100.5 Yards | +100 at DraftKings ➜ |
Hackett came to Denver after being Aaron Rodgers’ QB coach in Green Bay. He and Wilson have had the entire offseason to learn each other’s strengths. Expect the Broncos to throw early and often. His interception percentage is a stingy 1.8%.
Over a 17-game schedule, Wilson should be able to hit this number. The Broncos’ schedule is loaded with opportunity for passing numbers. Among their out-of-division opponents: The Texans, Colts, Jets, Jaguars, and Panthers. Take Wilson to go over 4,100.5 yards passing at -112 with DraftKings ➜ this season.
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Russell Wilson NFL MVP Odds
Here are the odds for Wilson to win NFL MVP honors this season:
Odds: +1400 at DraftKings ➜
This market is top heavy. Even two-time winner Aaron Rodgers sits atop the second tier at +1000. Wilson is a solid value play right now at +1400. His situation and potential storyline make him a contender, even if he’s never gotten an MVP vote during his career. Not even with nine Pro Bowl Appearances. Voters will feel an urge to make amends if the Broncos win this division.
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