It doesn’t get any bigger than the Super Bowl, and this year’s star-studded event features a championship-worthy showdown as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs take on Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and the San Francsico 49ers. Super Bowl 58 kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 11 from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. 

It’s the fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years for the Chiefs, the defending NFL champions. For the storied 49ers, it’s their first since the 2019 season, and they seek their first Lombardi Trophy since the 1994 season, captained by Steve Young and coached by Mike Shanahan – the father of current Niners coach Kyle Shanahan. 

Oddsmakers expect a close game, with San Francisco at -2 in the latest Super Bowl odds. The Over/Under is set at 47.5 points. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and 49ers. 

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Super Bowl Point 58 Spread Pick

In terms of recent history, defense-first KC doesn’t fit the bill. Teams that score points win championships; the Niners rank No. 2 in the NFL in scoring, KC is 15th (the last seven Super Bowl champs have ranked sixth or better in PPG). Patrick Mahomes is the exception to a lot of rules, but we saw how SF snapped back on both sides of the ball against the Lions in the second half. The team is 4-1 ATS when getting more than a week’s time to plan. 

If SF has a weakness on defense, it’s guarding TEs, as the Niners have been elite at stopping RBs and WRs. That could make for a big day from Kelce. Everybody is siding with KC, great for us with the odds plummeting. The Niners were the best team in football for most of the season. The moment is too big for Brock Purdy. Back the 49ers to cover en route to winning their first Super Bowl in nearly 30 years

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Super Bowl Over/Under 58 Best Bets

There isn’t any great trend on the total for 49ers games, but the Under has hit in five of the last six Chiefs games. 

Despite this being the era of offense in the NFL, the Under has hit in three of the last four Super Bowls. Two big exceptions, though: Last year, Chiefs-Eagles scored 73 combined points. Also, in each of those previous Unders, the total was in the 50s. The last six times the total was in the 40s, the Over has hit. 

These teams are scoring an average of 51.3 ppg away from home. It seems like a big moment for both offenses, so we’ll play the Over, but at a smaller amount than the spread. 

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Super Bowl 58 Moneyline Pick

Kansas City is +105 on the moneyline, while San Francisco is at -125. We like the Niners to cover the spread, but is there more value on the moneyline? 

San Francisco has played just two games decided by a field goal or less, and they lost them both. KC has three games decided by such a margin, and is 2-1. That would indicate that the Chiefs have the edge on the moneyline. We’re not going to hedge our Niners spread pick with a near even-money Chiefs pick, so we’ll stay off the ML entirely. 

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Best Super Bowl 58 Player Props

Christian McCaffrey, Over 88.5 Rushing Yards 

Odds: -110 at ESPN BET

This number is only slightly above the 86.9 rushing yards allowed per game by the Chiefs all season. McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing, is above the curve. Only once in the last eight game has he finished under 90 yards, and that was in a breezy win over the Commanders. In the other seven games, he’s averaging 108.3 ypg. 

KC has allowed over 90 rush yards in 15 of 20 games this season. Barring injury, McCaffrey should get close to 100% of the carries for the Niners. If San Fran jumps to a lead, he might 20-plus tries. The team is 13-0 when he gets over 15 attempts. Take the Over on McCaffrey rushing yards at ESPN BET. 

Rashee Rice, Over 6.5 Receptions 

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Rice has been the key go-to on the outside for Mahomes and the Chiefs pass attack. Over the last nine games, he’s had nine or more targets in six of them, and seven-plus receptions in six. 

As great as the 49ers are in slowing down RBs and TEs, they’re 27th in yards allowed to wide receivers, at 167.5 per game. Someone will have opportunities, and Rice is the most likely benefactor. Lock in the Over on Rice receptions at FanDuel. 

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