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Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears Best Bets, Odds & Picks

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears Best Bets, Odds & Picks

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It’s only Week 6, but any legit playoff hopes may be dashed on Thursday Night Football when Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears host Carson Wentz and the Washington Commanders. 

The Commanders are 1-4 and in dire straits, with all three other teams in the NFC East at 4-1 or 5-0. The Bears are 2-3 but are chasing the Vikings and Packers. The TNF loser faces a very steep climb to the postseason. 

Oddsmakers on NFL betting sites have Chicago at -1 in the latest Commanders vs. Bears odds, with an Over/Under of just 38 points on betting apps. Washington has won a surprising 13 of 16 meetings, though we’re going back to 1989 for the start of that trend. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson, who has hit on 11 of his last 15 NFL best bets this season, reveals his plays for the intriguing primetime NFC matchup. 

Commanders vs. Bears Point Spread Pick

The Commanders have just one INT all season – only one team has fewer – and they have allowed 11 TDs – only one team has given up more. Those weaknesses are not bad ones to have against a QB that has yet to prove he can exploit any defense. 

Chicago’s offense has been most effective when Fields is free to run. Washington has allowed just 32 yards rushing to QBs, the third-lowest total. The Bears have been dramatically out-gained in four of their five games, the exception being when they beat the Texans on a last-second FG. 

The road team has covered in eight of the last 10 games between the Commanders and Bears. We see it happening again here. Back the Commanders to cover the small number. 

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Commanders vs. Bears Over/Under Best Bet

The 38-point total is a full three points lower than any other total in NFL Week 6. There’s good reason for it. The Bears’ offense averages 135.8 pass yards per game, a laughable number in today’s NFL. The Commanders are fifth in passing but bottom-five in rushing. Combined, the teams average 35.2 ppg. Then there’s the Thursday factor. Three of the four TNF’s have hit the Under. 

Still, the number feels too low for any NFL game, even one involving Justin Fields. Wentz is in a good position to throw for 300 yards. A 23-17 game hits the Over. The Over has hit in the last four matchups between these teams. We’ll take the Over, but it’s not our favorite pick for TNF. 


RELATED: NFL Week 6 Picks, Best Bets And Predictions


Commanders vs. Bears Moneyline Pick

When it comes to matchups, neither side has much to exploit. On paper, anyway. But the Bears have allowed either 200 yards passing or 200 yards rushing in every game since Week 1 (and 200-plus in both categories in Week 2). Somebody gets off on the Bears defense each week. 

As for Chicago, the best bet is the QB against a Washington pass defense that’s had its issues. But Fields hasn’t given us any reason to check boxes. The Commanders are only -105 on the moneyline, basically even. At -110 we can get the point. In what could be a low-scoring, field-goal type game, we like that better. 

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Best Commanders vs. Bears Player Props

Justin Fields, Under 42.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

The Commanders have allowed 32 rushing yards to QBs through five games, so this number seems overly high from their point of view, especially considering they’ve played mobile or semi-mobile QBs like Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill and Trevor Lawrence. Fields has hit a consistent 47-52 rushing yards in Chicago’s last three games, 28 and 20 in the first two. 

Justin Fields & Carson Wentz, Under 403.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -120 at DraftKings

This is a low total for any NFL game. But remember, one of the QBs is Fields, and the other just got thrown under the bus for being the reason his team can’t compete in the NFC East. 

Wentz has thrown for over 313  yards three times, and for 211 and 170 the other two games. Fields finally got to 200 yards last week (208) but had averaged 117.8 ypg the first four games. Both teams have had issues vs. the run, so expect both offenses to start there and ride it until it doesn’t work or the game gets out of hand for one side. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.