The field heads to the home of Ferrari for the 2022 Italian Grand Prix, in a year that not only marks 75 years of the Prancing Horse, but 100 years of Monza.

Red Bull, with championship favorite Max Verstappen on form right now, will be looking to spoil the party in front of the Italian fans…

2022 Italian Grand Prix Odds

Driver	Odds
Max Verstappen	-275
Charles Leclerc	+600
Lewis Hamilton	+800
George Russell	+1000
Sergio Perez	+1400
Carlos Sainz	+2200
Fernando Alonso	+10000
Lando Norris	+25000

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and accurate as of publication.

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Verstappen’s win at Zandvoort was his fourth in a row, the Dutch driver taking his second consecutive home win by a much slimmer margin than the one he took in the Belgian Grand Prix. That was a worrying weekend for Verstappen’s rivals as the Red Bull driver won from 14^th on the grid at Spa-Francorchamps.

And that result, not the one at Zandvoort, is what should concern his rivals once again – and shape the wagers you make on betting sites – this weekend. That’s because Spa is a high-speed blast around the Ardennes forest, while Monza is a… high-speed blast around the Temple of Speed. Those similarities should mean for another dominant weekend for Red Bull.

That’s not to say it will be quite so easy this time around, but it’s difficult to look past Red Bull and Verstappen for victory once again. That’s something to capitalize on before F1 heads to Asia and the Middle East. 

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2022 Italian Grand Prix Betting Predictions

Friday practice sessions are expected to take place in damp or wet conditions, so it might be difficult to get a gauge on performance. However, third practice, qualifying and the race are set to take place in the dry. As a result, Verstappen’s advantage will still be significant on race day. 

Verstappen is clear favorite to take pole position in qualifying on Saturday at -200 via BetMGM. It’s probably not wise to back anyone else, given he set the fastest lap in qualifying at Spa by over 0.6s seconds… but the same book is offering odds of +225 for pole to be taken by a margin of 0.251-0.500 seconds, or +110 for pole to be taken by 0.251s or more, independent of the driver. The average pole margin from the last 10 Italian GPs is around 0.28s. 

If you wish to back someone bar Verstappen on betting apps, Charles Leclerc is +240 to take pole on BetMGM. He has a new engine from Belgium, and is generally quick on Saturdays. 

When it comes to grid penalties – which bump drivers down the grid for Sunday’s race – Lewis Hamilton is set to drop down the grid while his teammate, McLaren’s 2021 Italian GP winner Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull’s Sergio Perez, plus the Aston Martins, Williams, and Alfa Romeo’s Valtteri Bottas might follow suit. Suffice to say, their Sundays will be compromised if penalties come into play.

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On Sunday, Verstappen is again favorite (-250 via Caesars Sportsbook) but with the same sportsbook offering +650 for 2019 Italian GP winner Leclerc to repeat the feat this weekend, that is tempting. Of course, Red Bull hold the cards this weekend, and a parlay might be in order given it is likely Verstappen will take pole, win the race, and take fastest lap. Perhaps add in Caesars’ odds of -210 for the race to be won by six or more seconds and -140 for Red Bull to make the fastest pit stop.

So lofty is the Dutchman’s advantage, consider odds of +600 for the race to be won by 11-15.999 seconds, even if the average winning margin from the last 10 Italian GPs is just under seven seconds. 

Shock victories for Ricciardo (2021) and Pierre Gasly (2020) have come in recent years but the odds don’t lie; this is a circuit that has seen 25 wins from pole position and 13 from second place on the grid. Even if the new cars make passing easier, it’s still slightly difficult to overtake here, and given the straight-line speed advantage of Red Bull and Ferrari, others will need something miraculous to challenge them.

We backed Russell to get on the podium back at Zandvoort but here it’s less likely, given Mercedes struggled in Belgium. At +150 (BetMGM) it’s worth backing both Bulls to reach the podium, though any grid penalties for Perez could put a pin in that. Caesars are offering +110 for both of their drivers to finish on the podium as Red Bull head towards the constructors’ championship.

Finally, when it comes to retirements, Alfa Romeo have really suffered this season and Caesars Sportsbook is offering +330 on Guanyu Zhou not to complete the race, or +330 for his teammate Bottas not to complete the race. Bottas stopped late in the Dutch GP, which ultimately dashed Mercedes’ slim hopes of a shock victory. 

Here in Italy, it would be a shock if anybody but Verstappen won.

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