Mexico City hosts the next race in the 2022 Formula 1 calendar after Red Bull were crowned constructors’ champions in the United States, where Max Verstappen took victory over Lewis Hamilton. There’s one home racer in the field this weekend – Sergio Perez – but can he win?

Here are the race odds on sports betting sites and betting apps. 

2022 Mexico City Grand Prix Odds

Odds via BetMGM and accurate as of publication.

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Last time out it was Carlos Sainz who took a shock pole position for the US Grand Prix, but the Spaniard crashed out going into Turn 1 and then Verstappen breezed through to take the win – shrugging off a slow pit stop and a couple of Safety Cars in the process.

Engine penalties did shake things up in the USA with Charles Leclerc recovering to third and Perez taking fourth, and here in Mexico we’re not expecting too many, if any, grid drops. 

Perez stands a chance of winning his home race as Red Bull have wrapped up both the drivers’ championship and constructors’ championship, but Ferrari will be hoping to bounce back and Verstappen is on the verge of setting a record, if he takes his 14^th win of the season.

2022 Mexico City Grand Prix Betting Predictions

Qualifying has been unpredictable in recent races: Leclerc took pole in Italy and Singapore; Verstappen won qualifying in Japan and then Sainz aced Saturday in the USA. This is going to be tough to call, once again, and here in Mexico the odds reflect that. At +125 (BetMGM), Verstappen and Leclerc are joint favorites, while Sainz is a longer shot at +500.

It’s a tough bet to make and one that warrants a look at the results of the free practice sessions beforehand, plus the skies; rain could mean that pole position could fall to another driver outside those favorites. Ferrari still have the upper hand in qualifying and if you want to back Sainz for a repeat pole, he has odds of +550 via Caesars Sportsbook. 

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Verstappen is favorite to win this weekend with odds of 13/20, and yes, he is the overwhelming favorite – but that’s no fun. Instead, I’d back Perez for a shock win as Red Bull have achieved everything possible this season and it would add the icing on the cake to have their Mexican driver to win at home. Back Perez to win at +450 via BetMGM.

Red Bull have been strong in Mexico since 2015 and for both of their cars to finish in the top three, BetMGM are offering a decent F1 betting odds of +140, which is more likely than both Ferraris finishing in the top three. Or, for Verstappen, Leclerc and Perez to finish on the podium in any order, they have odds of +275. 

How about a Red Bull one-two? Not out of the question, as they did that in Japan. For that to happen, BetMGM Sportsbook are offering odds of +250.

If you want to play it safe and go for the favorite, BetMGM have Verstappen at a lucrative +700 to win by 10+ seconds, have the fastest lap and his team to put in the fastest pit stop. 

Mexico doesn’t really lend itself to a shock winner but the last two winners have come from third on the grid, which once again falls in Perez’s favor as he isn’t expected to fare too well in qualifying. Since 2015, only Red Bull and Mercedes have won, and Red Bull really do hold the cards once again this season. 

When it comes to the points, Aston Martin have been on the charge lately. If you’re looking for something to add to your parlay, BetMGM have Lance Stroll at 7/5 to land in the top 10. Pierre Gasly is another points contender, also at +140 – which is a good bet to take as AlphaTauri have the class-leading Red Bull engine. 

Alpine have solid straight-line pace as well, which is why Caesars are offering -140 for both of their drivers to score this weekend. But an outside shot for points is Williams’ Alex Albon, with that team enjoying great straight-line speed this season. At +250, perhaps consider backing the Thai driver tio finish in the top 10.

Perez may have fallen behind Leclerc in the USA, but at +160 (BetMGM) it’s worth picking him to be antepost winner of the 2022 championship without Verstappen. His odds might not get shorter than that if he does conjure up a home win this weekend…

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