Ambetter Health 400 Predictions: NASCAR At Atlanta Odds, Picks & Best Bets

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

William Byron has taken NASCAR by storm, winning the past two races and leading an impressive 240 total laps in the process.

Now, sports bettors face two questions regarding the Hendrick Motorsports wunderkind: can he join the exclusive group of drivers to win at least three consecutive events, and is he now the NASCAR betting favorite for the championship?

The first question is answered by an enthusiastic yes. Byron is the +900 NASCAR odds favorite this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where he led 111 laps on his way to winning the spring race last season.

He led another 41 in the fall, where he was caught up in a nine-car accident with 90 laps remaining. So the idea of Byron winning two of three at Atlanta and three straight overall this season does not seem farfetched at all.

But as for the championship? On that front, betting sites appear to be less than convinced of Byron’s staying power, given he’s fourth on the board in title futures (at BetMGM) behind Kyle Larson, the recuperating Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch.

Atlanta could certainly change that, especially if Byron becomes the 17th driver in NASCAR’s modern era (and first since Larson in 2021) to sweep three straight races in a single season.

Ambetter Health 400 Odds

Driver	Win	Top 3	Top 5
William Byron	+900 at DraftKings	+250 at DraftKings	+140 at DraftKings
Kyle Busch	+1200 at DraftKings	+325 at DraftKings	+190 at DraftKings
Kyle Larson	+1200 at DraftKings	+325 at DraftKings	+190 at DraftKings
Ross Chastain	+1200 at DraftKings	+325 at DraftKings	+190 at DraftKings
Joey Logano	+1200 at DraftKings	+325 at DraftKings	+190 at DraftKings
Ryan Blaney	+1200 at DraftKings	+325 at DraftKings	+190 at DraftKings
Denny Hamlin	+1400 at DraftKings	+375 at DraftKings	+220 at DraftKings
Christopher Bell	+1400 at DraftKings	+375 at DraftKings	+220 at DraftKings

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review.

Ambetter Health 400 Betting Tips

Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with three career wins at Atlanta, none more memorable than his 2001 stunner in Dale Earnhardt’s old car two weeks after the Intimidator’s fatal crash.

His most recent victory came in 2020, and in four starts since he’s cracked the top 10 just once. Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch own two Atlanta wins apiece, but neither triumph has been recent—BK’s last was in 2019, KB’s in 2013.

Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Denny Hamlin are the only other active drivers to have won at Atlanta (not including Elliott, still out due to a broken leg). Among those competing Sunday, Blaney boasts the best average finish (12.1), with a victory, a fourth-place run, and two-fifths over his past six starts in the ATL.

Larson has never won at Atlanta, though he’s twice finished as a runner-up. Ross Chastain was the runner-up in both races last year when he led 74 laps combined.

Martin Truex Jr.’s 11th-place result last fall snapped a nine-race run of top-10 finishes on the “quad-oval,” which was repaved and had its corner banking increased prior to last season.

If you’re looking for value, watch out for Chastain’s Trackhouse Racing teammate Daniel Suarez, who placed fourth and sixth in the two Atlanta events last season. And keep an eye out for Corey Lajoie, who ran a career-best fifth in the spring race at Atlanta a year ago.

Ambetter Health 400 Best Bets

Kyle Larson to Win

Odds: +1200 at DraftKings

Larson has led more laps than Byron this season, and has better average starting and finishing positions than his teammate, but he’s still showing a goose egg in the win column. Larson has been close, though, finishing second at Las Vegas where he led 63 laps, and fourth at Phoenix where he paced 201.

The past two weeks have shown pretty clearly that the Hendrick strength is not limited to the No. 24 car—right now, it’s running throughout the entire organization.

William Byron Top 3

Odds: +250 at DraftKings

Speaking of Byron, it’s really tough to ignore a driver who’s running as well as he is right now, and heading to one of his better tracks. Byron might well be going for his third consecutive Atlanta victory, had he not been caught up in a wreck in the July race sparked by Chastain turning Truex.

While Byron has shown sustained strength before--he won twice in a four-race span last season--what we’re seeing from him now feels like something else altogether.

Corey Lajoie Top 5

Odds: +750 at DraftKings

The Spire Motorsports driver came so close at Atlanta last year, not just once, but twice. Lajoie’s car was so good in the 2022 spring race, he came back from being caught up in a wreck and still managed to finish fifth.

And then in July, he led 19 laps, was in front with three laps remaining, and crashed battling Elliott for the win. It’s all enough to convince us that Lajoie knows that he’s doing on the 1.5-mile track in this current car.

Ambetter Health 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m.

Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

TV: FOX

About the Author

David Caraviello

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Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.