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French Open Day 14: Women's Finals Picks & Predictions For Swiatek vs Muchova

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 7 mins

French Open Day 14: Women's Finals Picks & Predictions For Swiatek vs Muchova

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World No. 1 and defending champion Iga Swiatek will compete for a third Roland-Garros title in four years on Saturday against unseeded Karolina Muchova, whose Cinderella run in Paris culminated in a maiden Grand Slam final appearance.

Predictably, Swiatek is being tipped as the prohibitive favorite across the sports betting exchange, with FanDuel Sportsbook, for example, projecting odds as high as -1000. At the same time, this very same trusted sportsbook tips Muchova as the quintessential long-shot bet with odds as low as +640 to do the unthinkable and beat the championship-pedigreed Swiatek.

When all is said and done after the dust settles on the women’s French Open final on Court Philippe Chatrier: Who will be left standing holding the Suzanne-Lenglen Cup? Is it a foregone conclusion as the tennis-betting markets would have you believe? 

Will the 21-year-old Polish star claim her third triumph in the Parisienne capital and fourth overall Grand Slam title? 

Or will it be the surprise finalist Muchova, with confetti cascading around her, hoisting the coveted trophy above her head for her first-ever Grand Slam triumph? As ever, we will be bringing you daily predictions and tennis picks from Roland-Garros here at Bookies.com.

So without further ado, let’s take a final deep dive into the women’s singles tournament and spot the best French Open Women’s Final predictions complete with tennis odds from the top-rated betting apps

French Open Women’s Final Best Bets

MatchPickOdds
Iga Swiatek vs Karolina MuchovaMuchova to win outright +640 at FanDuel
Iga Swiatek vs Karolina MuchovaMuchova to win a set, Yes +162 with Bet365 +162 at Bet365
Iga Swiatek vs Karolina MuchovaOver 18.5 -122 at FanDuel

Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Final Match Preview

Karolina Muchova

Karolina Muchova kicked off a dramatic women’s semifinal day at Roland-Garros on Thursday, upsetting Aryna Sabalenka, the No. 2 seed, and the bookmakers’ second-best bet after Swiatek to win the title, in a spectacular three-set battle that lasted three hours and 13 minutes.

Muchova saved a match point and rallied for 2-5, 30-40 down on her serve in the third set, reeling off five games in a row to shock the Belarusian 7-6 (5), 6-7 (5), 7-5. It marked her third noteworthy victory at this year’s tournament after upsetting No. 7 seed Maria Sakkari in the first round and 2021 French Open runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinals.

It’s been a long road back for the 26-year-old Czech, the 2021 Australian Open semifinalist and a former Top 20 player whose ranking plummet outside of the Top 200 last September. A series of injuries over the last two years derailed her career, including an ankle injury at last year’s French Open, which caused her to be carted off in a wheelchair.

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Iga Swiatek 

Iga Swiatek swept into the final of the French Open without dropping a set and faced very little resistance along the way. Through six matches, she served four bagel sets and dropped a total of 23 games, with the bulk coming in her last two matches.

In the quarterfinals, No.6 American Coco Gauff was the first to give the Pole some semblance of a challenge, though she lost 6-2, 6-4. Then, in the semifinals, No. 14 seed Beatriz Haddad-Maia obliged with the sternest test to date. However, Swiatek dug her heels in, overcoming a tight second-set tiebreak to persevere in straight sets, 6-2, 7-6 (7).

Muchova vs Swiatek Odds, Prediction and Best Bets

This is a classic case of head vs heart. Where the head dictates that Swiatek is the smart bet to win another  French Open title – her second in a row and third overall in four years. 

Since bursting onto the scene, the Polish star has been the best female tennis player on the red dirt by a country mile. Heck, her first title of any kind on the WTA Tour was the 2020 French Open title. 

Few players have come close to challenging Swiatek this season as evinced by her  28-6 record and two titles. The only players to get a measure of her were Jessica Pegula, Barbora Krejcikova, Elena Rybakina (3) and Aryna Sabalenka – with the latter two players beating her on her beloved clay last month.

And yet, despite Swiatek’s undeniable aura (particularly in Paris), the heart somehow leans toward Muchova, whose Cinderella story epitomizes triumph over trial and tribulation after seeing her French Open campaign last year end not only in a wheelchair, but also with the suggestion from doctors that she may never play tennis again. 

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It’s worth noting that Muchova has the 1-0 head-to-head edge over Swiatek, having beaten the Pole in 2019 in Prague (clay), 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. 

Before a litany of injury woes, Muchova was a player very much on the rise. The kind of dangerous floater that nobody wanted to come across in the draw. She realized that potential when she broke into the Top 20 in May 2021, during a season that began so promisingly following an Australian Open semifinal appearance after upsetting the then-No.1 Ash Barty in the quarterfinals.

It’s been a long road back to the top of the game for the Czech, who can break into the Top 10 by lifting the trophy on Saturday. She’s come this far against the odds. Why not go one step further? Now, that she is just one win away from realizing her dreams. 

Yes, the tennis odds are stacked against her. Yes, it’s a big ask (on paper). But, to be fair, she presents the toughest test for Swiatek, who, up to this point, hasn’t been made to sweat for it and cruises into the final comfortably. 

French Open Best Bet: Muchova to win outright 

French Open Best Bet: Muchova to win a set, Yes 

French Open Best Bet: Over 18.5 

About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.