Kentucky Derby 2022 Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EET

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Our Bookies.com handicapper Adam Thompson crushed horse racing in 2021. If you had bet $5 on the picks for the 2021 TVG Pacific Classic, your account would be $232 fatter today. That’s just the latest in a string of horse racing betting successes for Thompson, who won $480 on a $10 wager at the 2021 Preakness Stakes and hit the exacta at the Belmont Stakes, taking $75 on a $10 bet.

Now our top horse racing handicapper turns his sights on the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The 20-horse field goes to post at 6:57 p.m. Last year Thompson picked Mandaloun – the eventual winner after Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified – and hit the Derby-Oaks double. 

Kentucky Derby 2022 Odds

These Kentucky Derby morning-line odds were set by Churchill Downs and accurate as of publication. 

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2022 Kentucky Derby Favorites at Churchill Downs

It doesn’t get any bigger than the Run for the Roses. The horse racing odds at most top sportsbooks for the weekend’s Kentucky Derby have three horses near the top of their boards, including the morning-line odds at TwinSpires, among other sports betting apps.

Zandon (#10, 3-1 morning line odds) 

The early favorite, showing explosiveness at the end that has made him a podium finisher in all four career races. Chad Brown’s entry won the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes in dominating fashion. 

Epicenter (#3, 7-2)

Has won four of six career races and gives a great chance to win the Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has the most wins in history but zero in this race. He beat Zandon straight-up in February at the G2 Risen Star Stakes and another sleeper, Zozos, at the G2 Louisiana Derby. 

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Messier (#6, 8-1) 

A Bob Baffert horse before he was moved to another trainer due to Baffert’s suspension. This is still a Baffert horse. Messier has taken first or second in six career races but has never run in a field bigger than six horses. What happens when he gets into the traffic of this mammoth 20-horse field? 

2022 Kentucky Derby Predictions

My favorite is Epicenter. This is it for Asmussen and he’s beaten the best in some of the top Derby tuneups. Zandon should be there in the end, with Mo Donegal (#1, 10-1), the Todd Pletcher-trained entrant, a challenger, and our favorite double-digit odds contender. We’re topping all bets with those three. 

Messier, along with White Aparrio (#15, 10-1) and White Happy (#5, 20-1), are worth tossing in key spots. 

Post Positions for the 2022 Kentucky Derby.#KyDerby pic.twitter.com/TCuaiHrhF1— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 2, 2022

2022 Kentucky Derby Best Bets

Here’s how we’re betting the race; you can lay out your bet at TwinSpires racing book and on their sports betting app:

• $20 To Win: 3
• $5 Exacta Box: 1,3,10
• $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,10 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,15
• $.10 Superfecta: 1,3,10 with 1,3,6,10,15 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,15 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,15

Kentucky Oaks, Friday

• $5 Exacta Box: 4,7,10
• $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,10 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,15 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,15

Oaks-Derby Double

• 4,7,10 with 1,3,10

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.