Longshots have taken control of NASCAR, with Michael McDowell becoming the latest of three consecutive value options to reward bold sports bettors on the circuit’s premier series.

McDowell’s +2500 triumph on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road course this past Sunday followed back-to-back shockers by Chris Buescher, who was a +6000 winner at Richmond and then a +5000 victor seven days later at Michigan.

And now that run of underdog fortune runs headlong into a clear-cut NASCAR odds favorite Sunday at Watkins Glen International, the upstate New York road course where Chase Elliott has won twice and hasn’t finished worse than fourth since 2017. 

Elliott heads to Watkins Glen on the heels of a runner-up finish at the Brickyard and still needing a first victory of the season (that snowboard accident, remember?) to earn a berth in the NASCAR playoffs beginning on Labor Day weekend.

Elliott opened as a +350 odds favorite on the betting apps at Watkins Glen, ahead of Hendrick teammate Kyle Larson at +500. While Elliott hasn’t won a road race in over a year, he’s now finished second, third, and fifth in his last three starts on road or street layouts. 

Expect the No. 9 team to throw everything at Watkins Glen this weekend to avoid facing an unenviable win-to-get-in scenario at capricious Daytona next week.

NASCAR Go Bowling At The Glen Odds 2023

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NASCAR Go Bowling At The Glen Betting Tips

Elliott may be viewed as the best road racer of his generation, but it’s teammate Larson who has won the past two events on the road course, including last season in the debut of the next-gen car. 

Leading all active drivers with two victories apiece at WGI are Larson, Elliott and Kyle Busch—though the latter member of that trio most recently won at Watkins Glen a decade ago, and his 36th-place performance at Indianapolis last weekend doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and A.J. Allmendinger all own a single career victory at Watkins Glen, with Truex winning in 2017 before Elliott and Larson combined to unleash four consecutive years of Hendrick dominance on the shores of Seneca Lake. 

While Elliott owns the best average finish among active drivers at 5.7, he’s followed closely by Christopher Bell, who’s placed seventh and eighth in two career WGI starts. 

Allmendinger was the runner-up to Larson last season, but he hasn’t really contended in any road course starts this year, with his best finish being a sixth at Sonoma where he didn’t lead a lap.

Sonoma winner Truex has been top-three in four of his last five starts at Watkins Glen, while Daniel Suarez has been top-five in three of five career starts on the Finger Lakes road layout. And don’t rule out a challenge Sunday from newly minted Brickyard winner McDowell, who led 14 laps on his way to a sixth-place finish at the Glen a year ago.  

NASCAR Go Bowling At The Glen Best Bets

Chase Elliott To Win

Odds: +350 at DraftKings

Elliott is such a clear NASCAR odds favorite this week that the only way to squeeze any value out of the Hendrick driver is to take him to win.

There’s a lot of pressure on Elliott to win during this two-race road course swing, and last week’s runner-up showing at the Brickyard was a very good sign. Turn 1 at Watkins can be a fistfight during late-rate restarts, but Elliott’s history at the track shows he can navigate those situations as well as anyone.

Martin Truex Jr. Top 3

Odds: +180 at DraftKings

While he didn’t pay out last week as a top-three choice at Indianapolis, Truex has now finished seventh or better in five straight and nine of his last 11 overall, so the Gibbs driver is always a threat. 

Truex has been the most consistent driver on the circuit since May, he’s excellent on road courses, and he’s been top-three at Watkins Glen in four of his past five starts there. Needless to say, we’re riding that Truex train once again this week.

Daniel Suarez Top 5

Odds: +170 at DraftKings

While Suarez’s lone career victory at NASCAR’s top series came last season at Sonoma, his best track is Watkins Glen. In addition to his fifth-place run last year for Trackhouse, he also finished third and fourth at WGI in a Gibbs car.

While Trackhouse isn’t the team it was last year, and Suarez wasn’t a factor in the season’s first three road or street races, the No. 99 team clearly found something at Indianapolis, where Suarez started on the pole and finished third.

NASCAR Go Bowling At The Glen Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. EDT

Where: Watkins Glen (N.Y.) International

TV: USA