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NFL Week 12 Picks, Betting Predictions & Bets To Back: Thanksgiving Edition

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 30 mins

NFL Week 12 Picks, Betting Predictions & Bets To Back: Thanksgiving Edition

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Week 12 of NFL betting begins with the traditional Thanksgiving Day triple-header. 

The NFL serves up a bountiful harvest this week, as there are no teams on the bye. Prime-time games are standard fare on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday. But the NFL has added a new menu item this year – a game on Black Friday. 

The Week 12 schedule has a few turkeys. But there a plenty of tasty options, as well. As well as your traditional favorites. 

Among the surprise offerings on the holiday football table is a potential showdown in the AFC South between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans on Sunday. 

The Jaguars are where many oddsmakers expected them to be – atop the AFC South. But the Texans have surged into the playoff discussion behind the stellar play of rookie QB C.J. Stroud


RELATED: Super Bowl 58 Odds


Thanksgiving Day begins with the Green Bay Packers visiting Detroit on FOX at 12:30 p.m. EST. Usually, Thanksgiving Day games are true turkeys in Detroit. Not this year. The Lions are on the prowl for a potential top seed in the NFC, in addition to an NFC North title. Ford Field will be packed with hungry fans who haven’t tasted an NFL championship since 1957. 

The CBS national game at 4:30 p.m. EST offers an opportunity to relax, enjoy dessert and coffee, and take a walk. The Cowboys play host to the Commanders in what should be a high-scoring affair. Thanksgiving Night features the 49ers visiting the Seahawks in a game that will determine first place in the NFC West. For now.

The Exi-Box returns to NFL RedZone this week with 6 games in the 1 p.m. Sunday slot. The national CBS game at 4:25 p.m. EST has the Bills playing host to the Eagles. The Ravens visit the Chargers on Sunday night. Monday offers an already forgettable matchup between Chicago and host Minnesota. 

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Weekend Picks 

Now it’s on to our Week 12 NFL picks to back on your favorite sports betting app. 

DateMatchupWeek 12 Picks
Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 23 Packers @ Lions Lions ATS
Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 23 Commanders @ Cowboys Dallas ATS
Thanksgiving Night, Nov. 24 49ers @ Seahawks Seahawks ATS
Black Friday, Nov. 24 Dolphins @ Jets Dolphins ATS
Sunday, Nov. 26Saints @ Falcons Falcons ATS
Sunday, Nov. 26Steelers @ Bengals Steelers ML
Sunday, Nov. 26Jaguars @ Texans Texans ATS
Sunday, Nov. 26 Buccaneers @ Colts Buccaneers ML
Sunday, Nov. 26Patriots @ Giants Giants ATS
Sunday, Nov. 26 Panther @ Titans Over Points Total
Sunday, Nov. 26 Rams @ Cardinals Rams ML
Sunday, Nov. 26Browns @ Broncos Broncos ML
Sunday, Nov. 26 Chiefs @ Raiders Under Points Total
Sunday, Nov. 26 Bills @ Eagles Eagles ATS
Sunday, Nov. 26Ravens @ Chargers Over Points Total
Monday, Nov. 27Bears @ Vikings Vikings ATS

Week 12 picks are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code BOOKIESPICKS to get a $1,000 risk-free bet for your NFL Week 12 picks.

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Weekend Best Bets To Back Today

NFL Week 12 Picks, Betting Predictions & Bets To Back: Thanksgiving Edition 1

Thanksgiving Day 

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m. (FOX)

The Lions trailed by 12 points with 4:51 to play, scored the final 17 points of the game, but failed to cover when Justin Fields' fumble was kicked out of the end zone with 7 seconds to play. This means oddsmakers have finally caught up with the Lions. Detroit is poised for a deep playoff run if the team can eliminate mistakes in the postseason. 

This game is a terrific opportunity to grab a win and then enjoy an extended break. Jordan Love can throw the ball deep, but he may not have enough time to do much of anything. Nor can he keep up with the Lions offensive circus. This is a steep line, and an early game on a short week, but the Lions are hungry for a big win on national TV. The Lions have covered in 6 straight at home vs. the Packers.

Best Bet: Lions -7.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. (CBS)

The Giants seemed to figure out Sam Howell Sunday, who led the NFL in passing yards heading into that game. The Commanders dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline but have been competitive since. But they're not winning. And that loss to the Giants was deflating. 

The Cowboys have crushed consecutive lines of 17.5 and 11 points. Dallas is tied for the best record ATS in the NFL at 7-3. It has covered as favorites in 8 of the last 9 tries. The Cowboys won't keep it close at Jerry World on Thanksgiving. We also lean toward the over here.

Best Bet: Dallas -11 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 (NBC)

First place in the NFC West is at stake on Thanksgiving Night. A loud and wild crowd will keep it close in the Pacific Northwest. Keep an eye on the local Geiger counter. 

Especially if the Seahawks (6-4) can keep this close. The 49ers (7-3) have shown vulnerabilities this season and had lost three straight before their bye and big wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. The home dog Seahawks are a tough pass, having covered 6 of the past 7 tries in that situation. Here, they're getting a touchdown. This line doubled on Sunday night from 3.5 points.

Best Bet: Seahawks +7 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Friday, November 24

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, 3 p.m. (Prime Video)

The NFL is making a run at some traditional college matchups with this first-ever game on Black Friday. But it's on Amazon Prime. The Jets remain a compelling storyline only to see just how much work Aaron Rodgers will get on the sidelines as he prepares for a potential “mid-December’ (his words) return. 

The Jets have sputtered, losing 3 straight and averaging just 8 points in that run. Zack Wilson is under siege before the ball is snapped. The Jets QB situation will be a talker this week. The Jets may not reach double digits this week. Each of their last 5 games have gone under. The Dolphins have scored fewer than 21 points in 3 of 4. With all that, the Dolphins have covered in 8 of 10 against the Jets, and they could hit 41 by themselves here.

Best Bet: Dolphins -7.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Sunday, November 26

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Both teams are coming off the bye. This game is one of several intra-divisional matchups this weekend that will leave the winner in first place, in whole or part. The Saints have been their typical inconsistent selves this season. The Falcons started off with a flourish, but eventually Arthur Smith booted Desmond Ridder from the starting QB spot. 

Well, Ridder is back. The NFC South may be taken with 9 wins this season, or most certainly 10. With this game sitting as a pick, we lean toward the team with the edge in kicking: Atlanta. This is despite trends that favor the Saints. 

Best Bet: Falcons +1 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Another changing of the guard in the AFC North. Just a week ago, the Bengals were 5-point favorites. Then news came that Joe Burrow is lost for the season. At one point Sunday, Cincinnati was a 1-point home dog. Woof. The total has withered from 41 points to 35. Totals don't get much lower in the NFL.The Bengals are back as slim favorites. 

They have been a major disappointment this season even with Burrow. If the season ended today, the Bengals would be the lone AFC North team out of the playoffs. The Steelers are an up-and-down team and have won six straight after a loss. They'll make it seven as the Bengals quietly begin to look toward 2024 and a healthy Burrow.

Best Bet: Steelers ML (-108)  with DraftKings Sportsbook

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RELATED: Best NFL Same Game Parlay To Back Today


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

C.J. Stroud has all but locked-up Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He’s also put the Texans in the chase for the AFC South and/or a wild card spot. Houston won this matchup in Week 3 as it took a 17-point lead in a 37-17 rout. The Jaguars recovered from their Week 11 drubbing with a dominant 34-14 rout of rookie QB Will Levis and the Titans on Sunday. 

Stroud won't surprise Jacksonville this time. The inconsistency of Trevor Lawerence has been a disappointment. He struggles against quality opponents and cannot keep pace in any sort of an offensive shootout. The Texans continued to be undervalued by oddsmakers and have covered in 5 straight as underdogs. They're getting a point at home. Bow wow!

Best Bet: Texans +1 (+110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers remain in the chase for the NFC South despite having lost 5 of their past 6 games outright. The Colts are coming off a bye and their win over New England in Germany. Tampa Bay has explosive potential on offense that the Colts lack. And the Buccaneers are stout against the run. 

The Buccaneers have covered in 4 of their 6 games as underdogs this season, and the Colts have lost 7 straight at home against the NFC, including to the Bucs. 

Best Bet: Buccaneers ML (+105) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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New England Patriots at New York Giants, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Two teams playing for draft position. Loser gets Bill Belichick. Or the third overall pick. 

Best Bet: Giants +3 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Two rookie QBs face off. No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has yet to show much to justify the deal that brought him to Carolina. Titans QB Will Levis won the job by default over Ryan Tannehill. Two soft defenses could turn this one into a surprisingly "high" scoring game. Meaning over 40 points.  Derrick Henry could well hit triple digits in rushing yards. And Young could find the end zone a couple of times inbetween his interceptions.

Best Bet: Over 37 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The Rams won this matchup in Week 9 with ease 26-9. But Kyler Murray’s return has added some interest here, in addition to some hope for offense on both sides of the ball. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua were up to their "old" tricks in LA's Week 12 upset win at Seattle. Keep an eye Cooper Kupp's status this week. 

This line shrunk 1.5 points Sunday night from 2.5 to 1. Murray couldn't get it done against the Texas on Sunday. The Rams defense remains a constant threat. They are poised for the sort of late-season run that could elevate hopes for next season. 

Best Bet: Rams ML (-112) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we present the hottest team in the NFL: your Denver Broncos. Denver has won four straight after a 1-5 start. Maybe Sean Payton and Russell Wilson finally figured out . . . something. Denver beat Minnesota 21-20 Sunday night after a Wilson-Cortland Sutton TD pass with 63 seconds to play. The Broncos are solid on defense and special teams. As are the Browns. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was good enough Sunday. 

The Browns beat the Steelers 13-10 on a last-season field goal. It was the fourth time this season Cleveland won with a score on the game's final play. The under here is tempting (36.5 points), the Broncos have failed to cover in 11 straight as favorites against AFC opponents, but they are getting a discount here as 1.5-point favorites. We'll take the Broncos moneyline just since we don't want to break that "failed-to-cover" streak.

Best Bet: Broncos ML (-125) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

The Chiefs will be coming off a tough Monday night Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles. The Raiders have found life in the post-Josh McDaniels era. Both teams have found success with the defenses, hence their combined average of just 34.6 points per game heading into Week 11. 

They are 17-4 combined on the under through their first 21 games. The Raiders held the Dolphins to 20 points in a tough road loss in South Florida Sunday. And Taylor Swift will be in Brazil.

Best Bet: Under 44 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Maybe it was Ken Dorsey? The Bills found an offensive footing against the Jets Sunday. Yes, it was the Jets. But Bills Mafia will take anything it get in a season marked by disappointment. The Bills would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. Josh Allen had been forced to try and carry the offensive load all by himself. He's tied NFL lead in interceptions with 12. Yes, the Bills beat the Jets, who beat the Eagles. But that formula doesn't work here. 

Philly’s defense is fierce. Philly has covered this season each time they are favored by 3.5 points or fewer. And even though the Eagles are coming off a Monday night game against the Chiefs, they’ll be able to curtail whatever stampede the Bills have in mind. Especially at the Linc. 

Best Bet: Eagles -3.5 (-110) with DraftKings

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Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

The Chargers are who we think they are, right around .500. The Ravens are 7-3 but will be on the West Coast against a team that likes to score. Baltimore's top pass catcher TE Mark Andrews is likely out for the season after suffering an ankle injury last week. Lamar Jackson is in a perfect spot here to get the Ravens offense on track in time for the season’s final stretch. 

The banged-up Ravens come in to this one having had 10 days off. We’re a bit nervous about the hook on the 4.5-point line. But this total is gettable, even though it's edged up from 44 points last week.

Best Bet: Over 46 Points (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook

Monday, November 27

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Joshua Dobbs should win "Comeback player of the Year" due to his performance in Minnesota after being traded from Arizona. Dobbs is one of the good guys and it’s easy to root for him. He’s was unbeaten in his first two starts ATS with the Vikings before Sunday's loss at Denver. He's thrown for and run for a TD in each of his games with the Vikings. 

The Bears, meanwhile, could not hold a 12-point with 4:51 to play Sunday at Detroit and have now lost 12 straight within the NFC North. Justin Fields running the ball is a fixed feature in Chicago's offense. But it won't be enough for them on the road at Minnesota, either. 

Best Bet: Vikings -3.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.