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NFL Week 16 Picks, Betting Predictions & Bets To Back: Christmas Edition

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 28 mins

NFL Week 16 Picks, Betting Predictions & Bets To Back: Christmas Edition

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The NFL celebrates Week 16 of the NFL betting schedule with a near-full schedule on Christmas Eve and a Christmas Day tripleheader. Time to check the “Naughty or Nice” list. 

Santa has already come to town if you rode the rush of unders during the first 12 weeks of the season. That run has cooled. So is there any hope of consistency for all but a handful of teams in the league? 

Don’t believe me? In Week 15, the Raiders beat the Vikings 3-0. Just four days later, they hung a team-record 63 points on the Chargers. That represented the most points scored of any NFL team following a shutout in 89 years.  

The Raiders alone beat the game total of 36.5 points by themselves in the first half. 

Not only does this manifest the dream of true parity held by Roger Goodell. It’s also a reminder that no matter the trend, no one knows what’s under the tree until you open the presents. 


RELATED: Super Bowl 58 Odds


The NFL begins its Christmas week celebration on Winter Solstice Day. The Saints visit the Rams on Thursday night, December 21. A fitting contest for the shortest day of the year. There are two Saturday games: the Bengals and Steelers clash at 4:30 p.m. EST, while the Bills visit the LA Chargers in the nightcap at 8 p.m.

Six games occupy the 1 p.m. Sunday slot. The national game on FOX features the Cowboys and Dolphins at 4:25 p.m. And for those on the naughty list, the Patriots face the Broncos in Denver at 8:15 p.m. 

The NFL comes out swinging against the NBA again this year with a Christmas Day triple-header. The Christmas night game on ABC presents a Super Bowl preview (at least according to oddsmakers) as the Ravens play the 49ers in Santa Clara, California. 

2023 NFL Week 16 Picks

Now it’s on to our Week 16 NFL picks to back on your favorite sports betting app

DateMatchupWeek 16 Picks
Thursday, Dec. 21 Saints @ Rams Rams ATS
Saturday, Dec. 23 Bengals @ Steelers Bengals ML
Saturday, Dec. 23 Bills @ Chargers Under Points Total
Sunday, Dec. 24 Colts @ Falcons Colts ML
Sunday, Dec. 24Packers @ Panthers Under Points Total
Sunday, Dec. 24 Browns @ Texans Browns ATS
Sunday, Dec. 24Lions @ Vikings Lions ATS
Sunday, Dec. 24Commanders @ Jets Jets ATS
Sunday, Dec. 24Seahawks @ Titans Titans ATS
Sunday, Dec. 24Jaguars @ Buccaneers Buccaneers ML
Sunday, Dec. 24 Cardinals @ Bears Cardinals ATS
Sunday, Dec. 24 Cowboys @ Dolphins Dolphins ATS
Sunday, Dec. 24 Patriots @ Broncos Under Points Total
Monday, Dec. 25 Raiders @ Chiefs Under Points Total
Monday, Dec. 25Giants @ Eagles Eagles ATS
Monday, Dec. 25Ravens @ 49ers Ravens ATS

Week 16 picks are subject to change.

2023 NFL Week 16 Best Bets To Back Today

Thursday, Dec. 21

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Buzz: The Rams have accelerated their rebuild and would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. LA's offense has found its footing. The Saints are in the hunt in the NFC South, along with everyone else. But LA has improved steadily and is healthy. The loser here will be in a big hole to make it to the postseason. 

Best Bet: Rams -4 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Saturday, Dec. 23

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 p.m. (NBC)

Buzz: Both teams are playing on Saturday for the second straight week. And they're moving in distinctly opposite directions. Jake Browning has the Cats purring along toward a playoff spot. This week U.S. Steel was sold to a Japanese company. The fall of the Steelers isn't quite that drastic. But Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight, including Saturday night's spanking at Indy. They may go with Mason Rudolph this week at QB. No matter how bright Rudolph's nose will be Saturday afternoon, it would be enough to guide the Steelers past Cincy. This line has already moved from 1 to 2 points. 

Best Bet: Bengals ML (-130) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 8 p.m. (Peacock)

Buzz: That’s right. Peacock. You have about the same chance of finding this game on your big screen as the Chargers have of keeping this one within two scores. We've grown immune to 14-point road favorites this season (see: the 49ers). The Bills can just give the ball to James Cook and run clock for 60 minutes. We're leaning toward the under here. Thinking Bills 30-3. 

Best Bet: Under 42.5 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Sunday, December 24

NFL Week 16 Picks, Betting Predictions & Bets To Back: Christmas Edition 1

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: Another lump of coal in the stocking. The Colts are tied for first place in the AFC South. The Falcons, somehow, lost to Carolina Sunday. The Colts lost Zack Moss and Michael Pittman Jr. in their win over Pittsburgh Saturday. But even depleted, the Colts have enough on both sides of the ball to edge Atlanta, which appears headed for another late-season fade. This line has flipped from Indy +1 to -2. 

Best Bet: Colts ML (-135) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: Tickets for the Week 15 Falcons-Panthers game in Charlotte could be had for 45 cents each (plus fees) on StubHub. These tickets should fetch at least $1. The Packers got smoked by Baker Mayfield at home on Sunday. True to form this season, they should recover on the road this week. The Packers have been mathematically eliminated from the NFC North race will have to likely win out for a wildcard. This line moved from Green Bay -3 to -4.5 by Monday afternoon. We'll stick with the total. 

Best Bet: Under 36 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook


RELATED: Best NFL Same Game Parlay To Back Today


Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: A holiday surprise for fans in Cleveland and Houston, as both their teams are flirting with the postseason on Christmas Eve. Both teams enter this game coming off 3-point wins. The 8-6 Texans are part of a three-way tie atop the AFC South. The Browns are 9-5 but still sit 2 games back of best-in-the-AFC Baltimore in the AFC North. But it will be tough. Between these two teams, they have used 7 different starting QBs this season. This week, it's likely going to be Joe Flacco vs Case Keenum. Only one is "Elite." 

Best Bet: Browns +2.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The Lions will clinch the NFC North with a win over their divisional rival. Jared Goff was stellar against the Broncos in Week 15 in his best game as member of the Lions, throwing for 278 yards and 5 TD passes. The Vikings blew a 14-point lead at Cincinnati but Nick Mullens realized he was Nick Mullens. And that was that. This number is tight enough for the Lions to grab a road cover. And to the surprise of no one who has been paying attention, the Lions are back on top of the NFL tied for the best record of any team ATS this season, continuing a run started in 2021. 

Best Bet: Lions -3.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Washington Commanders at New York Jets, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: Will Aaron Rodgers come to the rescue of the Jets this week? He could be activated as soon as Wednesday. His appearance would light up MetLife and be wonderful Christmas present to a fan base that's had nothing to celebrate since the Butt Fumble. The Jets have mastered the art of winning late-season games that cost them critical draft position. NFL players are athletes are heart and have been competitive since they were playing pee-wee ball as 7-year-olds. And the Jets defense should carry the day here, with or without Rodgers. 

Best Bet: Jets -3 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: The Seahawks played at home against Philly on Monday night. The Titans lost a heart-breaker in OT to the Texans in Week 15. There are three teams tied for the lead in the AFC South. The Titans are the fourth. Mike Vrabel is all but done as coach and may well be back in New England next season, where he helped the Patriots win 3 Super Bowls. The Titans have covered in 4 straight agains the NFC West. They may well pull it off again here. 

Best Bet: Titans +2.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: Florida NFL fans have landed on the "Nice" list as all three NFL teams in the Sunshine State are in first place as the season hits Christmas Weekend. The Buccaneers rolled over the Packers in Green Bay in Week 15, in Baker Mayfield's best performance of his career, as he finished with a perfect passer rating in a dominant 34-20 win. Jaguars' QB Trevor Lawrence landed in concussion protocol after taking a beating at the hands of the Ravens Sunday night. His replacement on Sunday would be C.J. Beathard. Either way, the Buccaneers defense will be the difference in this one. 

Best Bet: Buccaneers ML (-108) with FanDuel Sportsbook

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Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: Bah. Humbug. The Bears have failed to cover in their past 12 games against teams that held a losing record. They are over-valued due to the size of the Chicago betting market.

Best Bet: Cardinals +4 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The Cowboys proved the doubters right with their dismal performance in Buffalo on Sunday. They face an equally hostile environment in the warm and humid climes of South Florida this week. The Dolphins will be waiting with lumps of coal for Dak Prescott's stocking. Miami WR Tyreek Hill sat against the Jets but should rested and ready for this one. The trend lines point to the Cowboys, who have won 9 straight after a loss. But it's hard to see the Dolphins whiffing at home on Christmas Eve, especially with a penguin Waddle-ing on one side of the field and a Cheetah roaming on the other. 

Best Bet: Dolphins -1.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 8:15 p.m. (NFL Network)

Buzz: The NFL's "Nightmare Before Christmas" features the worst-in-the-AFC Patriots visiting screaming Sean Payton's Denver Broncos. This line has ebbed up to 6 points. Given a potential for a total below 30 points, we're going to avoid that price. In the spirit of Ebenezer Scrooge, we'll be stingy with the total. Five of the Broncos' past six games against AFC opponents have gone under the total. 

Best Bet: Under 36.5 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Monday, December 25

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m. (CBS/NICK)

Buzz: The NFL Christmas Day triple-header offers up Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce together on the holiday in what could be a Hallmark Movie if it wasn't real life. Kansas City has won 6 straight over Las Vegas. But given the moneyline, we'll keep an eye on the total. The Chiefs are 7-1 on the under in their past 8 home games and are 9-5 on the under this season.

Best Bet: Under 43 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: Tommy DeVito got whacked by the Saints in Week 15. It looks like he won't be getting made, after all. The Eagles will need this game to keep pace in the NFC East and, if needed, the Wild Card. Jalen Hurts should be fully healthy at home. And Big Blue has lost 10 straight at the Linc. Santa won't be booed in Philly this year. 

Best Bet: Eagles -10.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, 8;15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN+)

Buzz: The most likely Super Bowl preview of the season thus far, at least according to oddsmakers. But this Har-bowl features only one Harbaugh brother. These are the only two NFL teams have gotten consistently better as the season progressed. In addition to possible Super Bowl preview, this game carries the extra storyline as being a battle of would-be MVPs Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson. It's hard to pass on the Ravens getting points, even in Santa Clara. Baltimore has covered in 7 of 9 as underdogs. Woof.

Best Bet: Ravens +5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.