Olympic Men's Team Starting Odds '28: Predicting The U.S. Lineup

By Adam Thompson

Aug 12th, 2024 7:54 PM EDT

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It certainly wasn’t easy, but Team USA did win its fifth straight men’s basketball gold medal at the France Olympic Games. Steph Curry played the role of hero, and LeBron James was No. 2 in scoring and led the team in rebounds and assists at the ripe age of 40. 

The quest for a sixth gold medal begins, and it’s on the home turf. The 2028 Olympics are in Los Angeles. 

Who will make the team, and who won’t? And who may be in the starting five? Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson breaks down the sports betting landscape and has revealed his betting odds betting odds for the starting lineup. 

U.S. Olympic Basketball Starter, 2028

This market is for entertainment purposes only and has been created by the Bookies.com team. It is not currently available on betting apps. Percentages will not add up to 100% most time because these are designed to simulate odds a sportsbook would set.

2028 U.S. Olympic Basketball Team: Starter Predictions And Key Players

It’s tough, but we can probably count out the three legendary NBA players who helped guide this year’s team to the gold. Never say never, but it was likely the final Olympic hurrah for James (40), Curry (36) and Kevin Durant (36). 

Of those three, Durant is most likely to return and see another gold. If he wants to play, he’ll be on the team, though it could be as a veteran statesman role. Veterans Anthony Davis (31), Joel Embiid (30), Jrue Holiday (34) and Derrick White (30) are more likely to give way to the next generation.

Five of the 12 players from this Olympic squad will be 31 or younger for the 2028 Olympics in L.A. 

Anthony Edwards (current age 23), Devin Booker (28), Bam Adebayo (27), Tyrese Haliburton (24) and Jayson Tatum (26) could all return, and most could be in line to start. 

To figure out the odds of starters, we’re employing a two-guard, two-forward, one-center formation. 

Edwards and Booker, especially, make up two of the premier guards in the NBA. If they want to come back, a spot will be there for them. Edwards called his Olympic experience “the most fun I’ve ever had playing basketball,” so there’s a good bet he’ll do it again in four years. Booker has two golds already (he was on the team in Tokyo in 2021). 

Adebayo will be the key big man, especially if the aging and physically worn Davis and Embiid elect not to return. The Heat center could be the top low post priority for Grant Hill, who will lead the creation of the ‘28 team. 

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Magic 6-11 forward Paolo Banchero (21) averaged 22.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg and 5.4 apg in just his second season, this after winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2022-23. The Seattle native is among the most-likely candidates to get a call for their first Olympic Games for 2028. 

On the same trend, Thunder stick Chet Holmgren (22) and Grizzlies center Jaren Jackson Jr. (24) add more next-gen options if AD and Embiid don’t return. 

Cooper Flagg (17) hasn’t even played a college game, but he schooled the Olympians in an exhibition and is hyped as a future NBA generational talent. He’ll be at Duke next season but will have three years of pro experience by 2028. 

If Tatum is on the team, he could persuade Celtics teammate Jaylen Brown (27) to join him in L.A. The two-time All-Star was a massive part of Boston’s NBA championship this season. He publicly questioned Hill’s snub of him this time, but there are a few years to mend fences. 

Tatum can also go for a third gold here, though his sporadic play (he saw no action in two of the six games) could offer a pause. Coach Steve Kerr won’t be back, however. 

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Grizzlies star Ja Morant (25) could put a cap on his personal reclamation project with an Olympic showing here. His talent is certainly up for it. Tyrese Maxey (23) has stepped up to every challenge and ascended his game to new heights this past season in Philly. 

Zion Williamson (24) made the trip to France but to promote Nike, not play. Health has been his issue, not talent. 

Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (22) and versatile defensive stopper Mikal Bridges (27) have a shot at making the team, though starting is a different animal. 

Jalen Brunson, De’Aaron Fox, LaMelo Ball and even current NBA rookies such as Reed Shepperd and Amen Thompson could get serious looks at the squad, but likely more for depth. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.