Tiger Woods couldn’t have picked a better time to return. This week’s Memorial Tournament has a major-worthy field at Muirfield Village, where Woods has been a great bet over the years.

Woods has five wins and no missed cuts in 17 career starts at the Memorial. He won three consecutive times from 1999-2001 and has hauled in more than $5.3 million in career earnings at this Dublin, Ohio track.

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This week marks Woods’ first tournament since the PGA Tour returned from its coronavirus hiatus. He was 68th in his last start five months ago at the Genesis Invitational and T-9 at the Farmers Insurance Open in January. Woods enters the week at +2600, with just 10 players ahead of him on the betting board.

Justin Thomas is the favorite at +950 after losing a playoff to Collin Morikawa in last week’s Workday Charity Open, also played at Muirfield Village. Morikawa is +2200.

Here are our best Tiger Woods bets for the 2020 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village plus three bets you should avoid.

Tiger Woods Memorial Tournament Top Prop Bets

Odds current as of publication; check out the latest golf odds here.

CHECK OUT: Best Bets To Back In The Memorial Tournament

Lowest Scoring Round – Round 4 (+200)

Round 3 has usually been the low one for Woods since he returned from spinal fusion surgery in 2018. Woods gets it going on Saturdays. But it’s been a different story at Muirfield Village. His final-round scoring average is 68.88 at the Memorial, nearly three strokes lower than his Round 3 average of 71.53.

Woods knows the value of steady golf at this course, especially after a five-month layoff. If we’d had to map out a guess for the week, expect a smooth start with Woods entering the weekend somewhere around the T-25 range. Maybe get himself within three or four shots of the lead entering the final round before he really lets loose with his best score of the week on Sunday. Bet on it with DraftKings:

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Make at Least One Eagle – No (-137)

The par-5s at Muirfield aren’t layups. Miss the fairway and you’re basically screwed, especially considering the rough will be grown out thicker than it was for last week’s Workday Charity Open. Woods usually takes his medicine and punches out when he misses the short stuff on these par-5s.

Woods didn’t make an eagle here in 2019, and there were only 26 eagles throughout the entire tournament. There were 52 last week, but the rough will be more significant and No. 14 won’t be set up as a driveable par-4 like it was for the Workday. Bet on it with Unibet.

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To Make the Cut – Yes (-334)

Obviously need to risk a lot here. But Woods is 17 for 17 on made cuts at the Memorial. He’s not exactly in the trunk slamming business on Friday afternoons and hasn’t missed a cut at a non-major since the 2018 Genesis Open, his second start back from spinal fusion. Woods never takes a shot off. He grinds it out 24/7 and can card a respectable score even on his worst days. We’ll take this bet every week. Bet on it with PointsBet:

CHECK OUT: Tiger Woods' Odds For The Next 4 Majors

To Make Two Consecutive Birdies in Round 1 – Yes (-126)

Woods is a streaky player these days. He can get super hot, especially at courses he knows this well. He made back-to-back birdies in three of four rounds at the 2019 Memorial, including five in a seven-hole stretch Sunday on the front nine. We’re expecting a few bogeys as he gets back into a rhythm, but he’ll put some circles on the card for sure. Bet on it with FOXBet:

Round 1 Score Over 69.5 (+102)

Woods hasn’t carded a sub-70 Round 1 here in his last six starts, and he hasn’t opened with anything lower than 69 since 2003. This fits with our prior assessment of Woods easing back into things. This isn’t a course where you can go out and shoot 66 without breaking a sweat. And he doesn’t care what anyone else does on Thursday. He’s not going to panic if someone from the early morning groups posts a number. The gameplan here is steady as she goes, let other guys shoot themselves out of it, then make a move. Bet on it with FanDuel:

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Tiger Woods Memorial Prop Bets To Avoid

Tiger Woods (+125) over Rory McIlroy

The odds are definitely tempting, but we’re not feeling the Woods matchup bets this week. Too many intangibles. There’s tons of course history and tendencies to go on here as far as Woods’ own game and that’s what we’ll stick with for now.

Tiger Woods to Miss the Cut (+274)

You might like those odds, look at the fact that he hasn’t played in five months and figure it’s worth a shot. It’s a little tougher to make the cut than it used to be with only top-65 and ties, but we still think this is a fade for all the reasons outlined above.

Tiger Woods to Finish Top-10 (+260)

If you think Woods has the goods to contend on Sunday, why not just bet him to win at +2500? Don’t think there’s enough value in a top-10 finish here but fully endorse a small “welcome back, Tiger” outright play.