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US Open Day 1 Picks & Best Bets: Including Djokovic, Fritz & More

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 14 mins

US Open Day 1 Picks & Best Bets: Including Djokovic, Fritz & More

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The US Open, the fourth and final grand slam on the ATP and WTA annual tennis calendar, begins play on Monday, August 28, and runs through to Sunday, September 10. As ever, we here at Bookies.com will be covering the action at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, cherry-picking the best matches on the day’s slate to spot for your tennis picks

Day 1 of the 2023 US Open will see a star-studded cast usher in main-draw play, including World No. 1 Iga Swiatek vs. Rebecca  Peterson, Frances Tiafoe vs. Learner Tien, Taylor Fritz vs Steve Johnson, and the newly-minted World No. 4 Holger Rune vs Roberto Carballes Baena. 

In addition, the 23-time major champion Novak Djokovic and Cincinnati Open champion Coco Gauff will headline opening night action in Arthur Ashe Stadium, with Gauff vs Laura Siegemund starting proceedings in primetime followed by Djokovic vs Alexandre Muller.

These matches and more highlight our tennis predictions below. So without further ado, let’s take a deep dive into Monday’s tennis-betting card and spot the best US Open Day 1 predictions, complete with tennis odds from the most trusted betting apps

US Open Day 1 Best Bets

MatchPickOdds
Ben Shelton vs Pedro CachinShelton to win -220 at DraftKings
Learner Tien vs Frances TiafoeTien +8.5 -105 at Caesars
Taylor Fritz vs Steve JohnsonOver 31.5 -110 at DraftKings
Holger Rune vs Roberto Carballes BaenaOver 33.5 -120 at BetMGM
Novak Djokovic vs Alexandre MullerDjokovic -10.5 +106 at FanDuel
Iga Swiatek vs Rebecca PetersonSwiatek -7.5 -105 at BetMGM
Coco Gauff vs Laura SiegemundOver 19.5 +100 at bet365

Ben Shelton vs Pedro Cachin

American Ben Shelton has struggled with the weight of expectations since reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals in his grand slam debut at the start of the season. 

The 20-year-old lefty is 12-20 (W-L) on the season, which includes a 2-4 run during the US Open series this summer. And yet, despite the subpar form, oddsmakers across the tennis odds board favor Shelton over Argentina’s Pedro Cachin to win and advance into the R64. 

Tipping the betting scale (on paper) towards the American is home advantage as well as surface advantage. Moreover, Cachin, who is predominantly a clay-court specialist, arrives in New York without any hard-court matches under his belt and ZERO tournament play since crashing out of Kitzbuhel (clay) in the second round earlier this month. 

US Open Best Bet: Shelton to win -220 at DraftKings

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Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe, the breakout semi-finalist at last year’s US Open, will lock horns with 17-year-old Learner Tien in an all-American showdown on Monday. 

Predictably, the tennis-betting market is skewed towards Tiafoe in his first-ever meeting with Tien. That’s in keeping with his Top 10 ranking, experience, and overall accomplishments that lend gravitas to his tennis odds.

That said, the 25-year-old American’s form is cause for some concern. He brings a 3-3 record to New York from the summer American hard-court swing, underscored by disappointing runs at the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters events – the latter of which ended in the second round behind a 6-3, 6-4 loss to Stanislas Wawrinka. 

Tien represents a new wave of American tennis hopefuls after receiving a wild card into the US Open for a second consecutive season. Though he lost his 2022 US Open opener to Miomir Kecmanovic, he did take a set off the veteran Serbian to suggest he could give Tiafoe a spot of trouble here. 

All told, Tiafoe should win. But the pressure on Tiafoe, coupled with the apprehension surrounding this matchup, could turn this into a much tougher contest than the odds would suggest. Possibly, the upset even – though that is a longshot bet (priced at a high of +1600 with FanDuel) that is certainly not for the fainthearted.

US Open Best Bet: Tien +8.5 -105 at Caesars

Taylor Fritz vs Steve Johnson

Taylor Fritz won the Atlanta Open title late last month and he brings an 11-3 record to New York from his US Open series campaign this summer. In his final US Open warmup event in Cincinnati, the World No. 9 looked sharp before a sobering 6-0, 6-4 quarterfinal loss to the eventual champion Novak Djokovic ended his run. 

Fritz takes on journeyman player Steve Jonson in another fascinating all-American first-rounder at Flushing Meadows. Johnson proved to be a tough out for Fritz in the past, but now, at 33 years of age and with his best tennis arguably behind him, the younger American should prevail. 

US Open Best Bet: Over 31.5 -110 at DraftKings

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Holger Rune vs Roberto Carballes Baena

The clash between Holger Rune and Roberto Carballes Baena is poised intriguingly at the sportsbook betting exchange as the pair prepare to meet for the second time this season at a grand slam. Rune defeated Baena in the R64 of Wimbledon, 6-3. 7-6 (3), 6-4 to level their head-to-head series 1-1. 

With the 20-year-old Dane arriving in New York sporting a career-high ranking of No.4, it’s easy to understand why he’s expected to beat Baena again. 

However, Rune is coming off a worrying two-match losing streak from his US Open warmup runs in Toronto and Cincinnati. This lack of tournament play, coupled with possible niggling injuries (he retired due to a back injury in Cincy), could expose Rune to an early scare. 

US Open Best Bet: Over 33.5 -120 at BetMGM

Novak Djokovic vs Alexandre Muller

The 23-time champion Djokovic, who is also a three-time champion in New York, is the top favorite with most trusted sportsbooks at +120 to win a historic 24th major title in New York. Before that, though, a win over Alexandre Muller in the first round will see him wrestle the No. 1 ranking away from Carlos Alcaraz – as if he needed any more motivation. 

US Open Best Bet: Djokovic -10.5 +106 at FanDuel

Iga Swiatek vs Rebecca Peterson

Defending US Open champion Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win the title as per the US Open outrights in sports betting markets. Swiatek is also quite rightly favored over Rebecca Peterson in her title defense opener, having beaten the Swede twice in straight sets and dropping just six games in the process. Expect the Pole to be just as efficient, if not more ruthless, in her third career meeting with Peterson.

US Open Best Bet: Swiatek -7.5 -105 at BetMGM

Coco Gauff vs Laura Siegemund

High hopes precede American teenager Coco Gauff as she arrives in New York to flush off her biggest title victory at the Cincinnati Open. She is tipped as the third-best bet at +700 with Caesars Sportsbook, after Swiatek (+200) and Aryna Sabalenka (+440), respectively, to win the US Open title. 

Gauff begins her US Open bid against dangerous floater Laura Siegemund, who qualified in the main draw event on Saturday and has a previous hard-court win over the 19-year-old in Auckland from three years ago. 

The 35-year-old veteran can’t be dismissed out of hand, not least because her win over Gauff shows she can give her a run for her money. 

But with Gauff’s confidence surging and form peaking just in time for the US Open, not to mention the partisan Arthur Ashe crowd that will be firmly behind her, it would take something special from Siegemund to serve up an upset here. 

US Open Best Bet: Over 19.5 +100 at bet365

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.