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US Open Semifinals Best Bets & Predictions, Including Gauff vs Muchova

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 8 mins

US Open Semifinals Best Bets & Predictions, Including Gauff vs Muchova

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The grand slam season is nearing the end as the US Open arrives on the doorstep of the penultimate round, with the women’s front leading the way on semifinal Thursday.

Four women left standing, two semifinal matches and a spot in Saturday’s US Open final on the line make for a scintillating Day 11 of the US Open. 

American teen Coco Gauff will lead the play on Arthur Ashe when she faces off against Czech Karolina Muchova. Then Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will bring down the curtain on the day’s tennis-betting card.

As ever, we here at Bookies.com will be covering the action, cherry-picking the best matches on the day’s slate to spot for your daily tennis picks.  

So without further ado, let’s take a deep dive into Thursday’s action and spot the best bets with our US Open Day 11 predictions, complete with tennis odds from the most trusted betting apps..

US Open Day 11 Best Bets

MatchupPickOdds
Coco Gauff vs Karolina MuchovaMuchova to win +165 at DraftKings
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison KeysSabalenka to win -250 at FanDuel

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Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova

Ever since a 15-year-old Coco Gauff burst onto the scene to reach the R16 in her Wimbledon debut, great things were expected of the American teenage phenom. Last year, she came oh so close to accomplishing the feat in Roland Garros, but a loss to Iga Swiatek in the final denied her the coveted prize. 

Now, four years later, the 19-year-old is just two wins away from reaching her dream of winning a maiden Grand Slam title on her home soil. Standing in her way is Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic, who reached her maiden major final at the French Open this year. 

The pair met for the first time last month in Cincinnati, where Gauff swept aside the 27-year-old Czech in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4, to claim her maiden WTA 1000 title and third title of the 2023 season. Predictably, bookmakers are projecting a similar outcome for Gauff across the board, with most trusted sportsbooks, including BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel, pricing her at -200 on the moneyline to win.

Anybody that watched the Cincy final will have noticed that Muchova simply wasn’t at her best. She came into that match with less rest time and slightly beaten down from a taxing draw that saw her go the distance against both Maria Sakkari (R16) and Aryna Sabalenka (semis). Plus, the extreme heat on the day took its toll on her too. 

Muchova is a tricky opponent who has a deep arsenal of weapons and a lot of variety in her game. That means she can flip the script in the blink of an eye during a match, and that could give Gauff some trouble if she doesn’t adjust accordingly.

Gauff made light work of Jelena Ostapenko, impressively taking the 6-0, 6-3 win in the quarterfinals after the Latvian had dispatched defending champion Swiatek in an epic three-set marathon. 

Muchova, not to be outdone, was similarly impressive in a 6-0, 6-3 win over Sorana Cirstea on Tuesday to book her first-ever semifinal appearance at the US Open.

Undoubtedly, Gauff is playing the best tennis of her career. As well, she appears to be enjoying herself more on the court, in part thanks to the addition of coach Brad Gilbert to her team, who has done wonders for her game, confidence, and attitude. 

A win for Gauff here will be a fitting culmination of the potential and promise she showed from day dot. She’ll also have the raucous Flushing faithful firmly in her corner – support that often acts as the third player on the court, giving her an edge over Muchova.

Nevertheless, this promises to be a battle between two of the most informed players over the American hardcourt swing, each of whom plays an explosive, athletic brand of tennis that is raising the bar in the women’s game. 

Thus, winning this match is really a 50-50 prospect between them. Put simply, there’s a reason why Muchova is a notional underdog priced at +165 or thereabouts depending on your preferred betting apps.

Whichever way you are slicing this match for your tennis picks, therefore, expect a closer contest between them this time and one that has every chance of going the distance. 

US Open Best Bet: Muchova to win at +165 at DraftKings

 Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys

The 2017 US Open runner-up Madison Keys moved one step closer to another US Open final after overpowering the reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova 6-1, 6-4 in Arthur Ashe stadium on Wednesday night.

The 28-year-old American will face Aryna Sabalenka, who powered her way into her fourth major semifinal of the season and third consecutive at the US Open behind a 6-1, 6-4 victory over Qinwen Zheng earlier in the day.

Sabalenka, who will become the new World No. 1 when the rankings are released next week, is in the midst of a banner season, winning three titles including her maiden grand slam triumph at the 2023 Australian Open.

The statuesque Belarussian hasn’t put a foot wrong all tournament and cruises into the last four without dropping a set and with a meagre 21 games conceded. She’s barely whiffed at six hours on court, and, importantly, by opening Wednesday’s play in Arthur Ashe stadium, she has the advantage of added rest over Keys.

Sabalenka has won two of their three meetings, including the quarterfinals at Wimbledon this summer, 6-2, 6-4.  Keys’ lone victory came in the R16 of Berlin in 2021, where she eked out the 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 win.

Keys has marched through her section of the draw with the loss of just one set (to power-hitter Liudmila Samsonova in the third round). What’s more, statistically, Keys performance over the fortnight at Flushing Meadows has been almost as dominant as Sabalenka’s. 

But the quick turnaround—less than 24 hours after walking off Arthur Ashe—between her quarterfinal and semifinal matches is a bit of a disadvantage.

On paper, pitting two of the game’s purest ball strikers against each other adds up to a scintillating showdown that could go either way. Keys will have the crowd behind her but Sabalenka has the experience of winning behind her. Which will prove deciding? 

As far as the betting is concerned, the balance tips towards Sabalenka, but—make no mistake—nobody will be surprised if Keys pulls off the upset. 

US Open Best Bet: Sabalenka to win at -250 at FanDuel

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.