Justin Herbert NFL Draft Odds: Where Will Oregon QB Land

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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As many as five quarterbacks could be taken in the opening round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Four could go in the top 10.

Joe Burrow of LSU is going No. 1 — that’s a safe wager in NFL betting at this point. After that, however, it gets dicey, with teams potentially trading up to get their QB. Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama has been a popular trade-up target.

But what about Oregon’s Justin Herbert? He hasn’t received the hype bestowed upon Tagovailoa, but his size, skill and production are right there.

Unibet has odds on where the Ducks QB ends up, and it’s a long list.

Which Team Drafts Justin Herbert

All odds are current as of publication and subject to change.

Bookies.com breaks down the teams and makes a pick on Herbert’s pro destination.

What Herbert Brings

When it comes to physical stature, Herbert looks like a prototypical pocket passer. He’s 6-foot-6, 236 pounds. One would expect a lumbering, Peyton Manning-level of athleticism. But he ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at the NFL combine with a 35.5-inch vertical jump, which ranked better than other QBs considered more mobile or athletic. He ran for three TDs in the Rose Bowl in a win over Wisconsin and was the Senior Bowl MVP after the season.

He’s also a three-time Academic All-American and scored the highest on the Wonderlic among QBs, so mastering a complicated NFL playbook isn’t a concern. Herbert has NFL QB size, he can run with the ball, he’s smart and he’s a proven winner. What’s not to like?

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The Herbert vs. Tagovailoa Debate

Well, Herbert’s game instincts are considered a notch below Tagovailoa’s. Herbert is a deft and effective runner, but had issues escaping pressure in the pocket. In other key abilities, he matches up well with the Alabama QB and surpasses him in a few.

Tua’s injury concerns could give some pause on teams who were previously all-in on him. That and Herbert’s terrific showing at the combine are part of what has allowed Herbert to jump into the argument for being the No. 2 QB selected.

Narrowing the Field

There are several franchises interested in drafting a quarterback in the first round, and many of them are in play for Herbert — hence the long list of teams on the board. That said, it’s easy to wipe some of them from consideration.

If the Redskins use the No. 2 pick on a QB, it’ll likely be for Tagovailoa, who new head coach Ron Rivera is reportedly very high on.

Carolina was an intriguing choice until the Panthers signed Teddy Bridgewater for two years. He’s the QB for the time being. Herbert isn’t likely to fall to the Jaguars (No. 9) or Raiders (No. 12), and the Patriots (No. 23) seemingly don’t have the pieces to trade up for their QB of the future.

Herbert would be a great fit in Indianapolis to study under Philip Rivers for a season, but the Colts traded away their first-round pick and don’t have the pieces to easily move into Herbert’s range. The Lions have too many pressing needs to waste a top 10 pick on a backup for Matthew Stafford.

That leaves the top two teams on the board, the Chargers and Dolphins.

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The Pick

The Dolphins were at one point the clear choice to land Tagovailoa, leaving the door open for the Chargers to get Herbert and let him develop for a spell under presumed Week 1 starter Tyrod Taylor.

But Herbert to Miami is gaining traction and in many ways it makes sense. If the Dolphins follow the blueprint of their rival New England Patriots — head coach Brian Flores and GM Chris Grier worked for the Pats prior to coming to south Florida — getting a high-IQ, strong-armed, big-bodied QB is a big first step, and in this draft that’s Herbert.

If the Redskins take a QB at No. 2, it’s going to be Tagovailoa. If any team feels the need to trade up to No. 3 spot to steal a QB, it is likely for Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins have three first-rounders and a lot of holes to fill. If they believe Herbert is as good as Tagovailoa, they’re better served keeping those picks in their pocket. Regardless of where Tagovailoa goes, Herbert should be there at No. 5 when it’s time for Miami to put in its selection.

We’re getting fair odds on the Dolphins taking Herbert.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.