Joe Short for Bookies.com

By Joe Short | | 3 mins

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Nitto ATP Finals Betting: Back Medvedev For Great Value

Nitto ATP Finals Betting: Back Medvedev For Great Value
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Daniil Medvedev is in the form of his life and well worth following during the ATP Finals next week.

The Russian is in London for this season’s curtain raiser and is already ruffling the tennis betting odds ahead of his first match.

Medvedev has shot up the rankings in recent months and proudly sits in fourth — below Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.

And Medvedev is currently a good value tennis bet to win the Nitto ATP Finals for fans looking outside the Big Three.

Medvedev ATP Finals odds

The 23-year-old is +400 with 888 Sport to win the ATP Finals for the first time in his career this weekend. He has been drawn in a group alongside Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev, which 12 months ago would have seemed a daunting proposition.

Yet this year Medvedev heads into the tournament as the best outside pick at the ATP Finals. And his odds of winning the tournament are remarkable considering where Medvedev started the 2019 season.

The Rise of Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev began the year ranked 16th in the world. He had won his first ever ATP trophy in the previous season and added two more titles to his name.

Yet just one 250 Series title in Sofia was all Medvedev had to show for himself during the spring of 2019. Indeed, it has been his post-Wimbledon form that catapulted the youngster into the spotlight.

Daniil Medvedev's Summer Success

Medvedev reached the Washington Open final in August but lost to firebrand Nick Kyrgios. A week later Medvedev lost in the Canadian Open final to Nadal. But there were signs Medvedev was hitting his stride on the outdoor hard courts.

Indeed, Medvedev’s subsequent Cincinnati Masters triumph before the U.S. Open suddenly made him an outside pick to win the Flushing Meadows title. He reached the final in New York only to be defeated by Nadal in five sets.

Refusing to wallow in his first Grand Slam final defeat, Medvedev has since won two more titles: The St Petersburg Open (indoor hardcourt) and the Shanghai Masters (hardcourt).

Why is Medvedev So Good Right Now?

Medvedev’s form has spiked since the ATP Tour swung back to the hard courts. He has found a rhythm playing on the surface that keeps him in points. Men’s tennis is as much about durability as it is hitting winners and Medvedev has proved capable of grinding out games.

His rise has come as many of his direct rivals falter on the tour. Alexander Zverev was ranked No. 4 when the season opened but is now No. 7, having endured a forgettable season.

Juan Martin del Potro’s ranking has plummeted from fifth to 122nd due to injury. And both Kevin Anderson (sixth in January) and Marin Cilic (seventh) have endured tough years too.

Medvedev has taken advantage of the faltering of players outside the Big Three to stake his claim in that No. 4 spot.

Looking at his ATP Finals group opponents, Medvedev can boast a winning record over just one of them (Tsitsipas). Yet his sole victory over Zverev came in the Shanghai Masters final a month ago, where Medvedev blew his opponent away 6-4 6-1.

Who would bet against Medvedev beating both Zverev and Tsitsipas to reach the ATP Finals' last four?

Djokovic favorite to win ATP Finals

Whether Medvedev can go all the way may depend on his semifinal opponent. Assuming he finishes second in Group Andre Agassi, Medvedev will likely face Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic is the +115 favorite to clinch the title. The Serb has won this tournament five times but is on a three-year title drought in London. Djokovic is expected to top his group, which also contains Federer, Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini.

Djokovic heads into this tournament having just won the Paris Masters title and will be the man to watch. He should beat Federer to top the group, having not lost to the Swiss maestro since these Finals in 2015.

As for Nadal, the world No. 1 is projected to meet Federer in the semifinals yet is priced worse than Medvedev, at +450, to win this title. That shows just how much faith bettors are putting in Medvedev compared to the experienced Spaniard.

Federer boasts six ATP Finals titles yet his last came in 2011. Some bookmakers have seen his odds drift to +450, making Medvedev the second favorite to win this title.

Federer won the Swiss Indoors last month. Yet when it really comes to top-level tennis he hasn’t dined at that table since his Wimbledon final defeat to Djokovic back in July.

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