UFC 263 Odds, Picks: Adesanya vs Vettori & Figueiredo vs Moreno
Jed Meshew | 6 mins
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The UFC returns this Saturday with yet another pay-per-view event. As has been the case with their PPVs this year, it’s another stacked card for fans of UFC betting, featuring two title fights and a bit of history.
In the UFC 263 main event, middleweight champion Israel Adesanya defends his 185-pound title against a familiar foe, Italy’s Marvin Vettori. In the co-main event, flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo faces off once again against Brandon Moreno in a rematch of the second-best fight of 2020.
But if that wasn’t enough, UFC 263 will also break new ground by featuring the first five-round non-main event, non-title fight, when Nate Diaz takes on Leon Edwards for (potentially) 25 minutes.
Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Betting Analysis & Predictions
Though he’s only been champion for less than two years, Israel Adesanya is already climbing the ranks of the greatest middleweights of all-time. A former kickboxing champion who was unbeaten in his first 20 MMA bouts, some people even had Adesanya pegged to be the next Greatest Fighter of All Time.
However, those dreams were deferred in Adesanya’s last bout when light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz denied “The Last Stylebender” a second UFC title, handing him his first loss with a unanimous decision win back in March. Now Adesanya is returning to the division he calls home and a familiar foe is waiting for him.
Marvin Vettori is the third-ranked middleweight contender and riding a five-fight win streak in the UFC. Perhaps the most important part of that streak is the loss that predates it. Vettori’s last defeat came at the hands (and feet) of Adesanya back in 2018, when a relatively untested Adesanya barely squeaked out a split decision over Vettori.
Since that bout, both men have gone on to improve tremendously. And given his success in their first affair, Vettori has been adamant he’s now in an even better position to upset the apple cart.
On paper, this fight is fairly straightforward. Both men have made strides since their first contest, but the broad strokes of their respective games remain largely the same. Adesanya is the sport’s preeminent striker, capable of doing just about anything you can think of (and several things you can’t) and doing them all lethally.
Vettori, meanwhile, is a pressure fighter, looking to march opponents down on the feet and then use that momentum to secure takedowns. It was that style that proved effective against Adesanya in their first contest, and it’s surely one he will employ in this bout, with Adesanya looking to play the matador.
Vettori presents a lot of the challenges that you would look for when picking an opponent to upset Adesanya. However, he lacks the most important one: power. Vettori has solid defense, he can put pressure on, and he’s durable, but he’s not a good enough wrestler to consistently threaten with takedowns in a meaningful way.
He also lacks the power of guys like Yoel Romero or Jan Blachowicz, which would force Adesanya into more defensive tactics. That lack of power means Vettori is in trouble in this fight.
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UFC 263 Best Bet: Adesanya vs. Vettori Odds To Back
Vettori is going to continue to march forward into Adesanya, and he’s going to get lit up as a result. He’s simply facing a far superior striker and lacks the tools to be truly threatening to Adesanya. Adesanya is going to style all over Vettori until the ref finally has to jump in.
Given Vettori has yet to be stopped in his career, the price on Adesanya by KO/TKO is inflated, with Adesanya at +200 at FOX Bet ➜. That’s a bet you should take.
Other UFC 263 Bets To Consider
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno: As in the main event, this is a rematch. However unlike with the main event, the first fight between these two took place just a few months ago and resulted in a draw.
The draw came about because Figueiredo was deducted a point for a low blow during the fight, and that ultimately ended up splitting the scores on two judges’ cards. No such thing will happen this time.
Moreno is game as hell but lacks the same kind of offense as Figueiredo, and we now know that conclusively. Figueiredo should win, either by KO or Decision, and so getting him at one of the top sportsbooks – and he’s -213 at FOX Bet – is a great value play. (Be sure to check out our FOX Bet sportsbook review)
Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz: Were this a three-round fight, the bets would be impossibly easy, and the line would probably not even be worth it. Nate Diaz is a huge name but has only ever been so-so as an elite fighter and Edwards is in his prime right now.
Edwards is going to win this, it’s just a matter of how, and Diaz’s durability and Edwards’ tendency to favor his newfound grappling game means we’re going to see the final bell in this one. Consider Edwards by Decision at +125 at FanDuel sportsbook ➜.
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UFC 263 Date, Time & TV Info
When is UFC 263?
UFC 263 is on June 12 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.
What Time is UFC 263?
The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET; early prelims start at 6:30 ET; prelims set to begin at 8 p.m.
Where Can I Watch UFC 263?
The UFC 263 main card is on ESPN+ PPV; prelims are on ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes and UFC Fight Pass.