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UFC Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions For Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions For Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

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The Octagon heads to the home of Bookies.com in Charlotte, North Carolina this weekend. UFC Charlotte: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida takes place live this Saturday afternoon at the Spectrum Center and airs live on ABC. 

The card features 12 bouts in total, including an exciting heavyweight main event between Jailton Almeida and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Before watching the fights, check out and read our UFC picks for UFC Charlotte. Best of luck with your wagers!

Favorite Underdog
Jailton Almeida | -490 Jairzinho Rozenstruik | +390

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC Charlotte Main Event Best Bet

Jailton Almeida (-490) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+390)

In the main event of UFC Charlotte, Jailton Almeida takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Almeida is a massive -490 favorite on betting apps, and not surprisingly, I am picking him to win this fight.

Almeida only joined the UFC last year, and since then, he has become a serious heavyweight title contender by going 4-0 with all four of his wins coming by stoppage. The 31-year-old Brazilian has an exceptional ground game, as he’s able to get his opponents to the mat and then finish them with either submission or devastating ground and pound. 

We still have some questions that need to be answered about his game, including his cardio and his standup. But we do know he has an elite ground game, and it should be enough to beat most opponents.

Rozenstruik is one of the best strikers in the UFC heavyweight division, but he’s rather limited outside of that. The 35-year-old Suriname native is 7-4 in the UFC with all seven of his wins coming by knockout. 

His knockout power is devastating, but if he gets taken down, his ground game is rather limited, which is obviously a huge concern against someone like Almeida. Rozenstruik will always have a puncher’s chance, but because he is not super well-rounded, his lack of a ground game is likely holding him back from being one of the division’s top talents.

Almeida should be able to get Rozenstruik down to the ground in the first round, take him back, and either sink in a rear-naked choke or finish the fight with TKO via ground and pound. 

Either way, I like the Brazilian to win this fight. Take him to win as a -490 favorite in the headliner, and if you want to cut down the juice, take him to win inside the distance for a prop bet in this fight.

UFC Charlotte Best Bet: Jailton Almeida wins at -490 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Charlotte Best Prop Bet: Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Charlotte Best Bets

Ian Garry (-285) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+240)

Also on the main card, Ian Garry fights Daniel Rodriguez in a welterweight contest. Garry is a -285 betting favorite, and I like him to remain undefeated by winning this fight.

Garry is one of the top prospects at 170 lbs. The 25-year-old Irish fighter joined the UFC in 2021 and he has a perfect 4-0 record since then. For the most part, Garry has looked great in the Octagon. His striking is technical and crisp, he has great footwork and solid head movement, and his cardio is exceptional as well. 

While he did get dropped in his last fight against Song Kenan, he came back late in the fight and knocked his foe out, which was impressive to see. That might be the moment Garry needed in order to take the next big step in his UFC career.

As for Rodriguez, he has been one of my favorites since he joined the UFC in 2020. Since then, the 36-year-old American has a 7-2 record in the UFC, with three finishes coming by stoppage. Rodriguez has shown an exciting volume striking type of style to go along with very good takedown defense for the most part, and it’s helped him win a lot of UFC fights. 

However, he is 36, and his last two performances weren’t impressive. It’s possible he could finally be reaching a bit of a decline spot, and if that’s the case, then this fight against Garry could prove to be tricky.

I expect a striking battle here for 15 minutes, and overall I think Garry is the more technical striker, and he’s also the younger fighter with far more upside in this matchup. Give me Garry to outpoint Rodriguez and win as a -285 favorite at UFC betting sites. For a prop, take a look at Garry wins by decision.

UFC Charlotte Best Bet: Ian Garry wins at -285 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Charlotte Best Prop Bet: Ian Garry wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Alex Morono (-225) vs. Tim Means (+190)

Opening up the main card, Alex Morono takes on Tim Means at welterweight. Morono is a -225 betting favorite, and I favor him to get his hand raised.

Morono joined the UFC in 2016 and he has an 11-5, 1 NC record in the Octagon since then. The 32-year-old American is one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. He throws a ton of volume, he is technical, and he has power. 

He is just very dangerous anytime the fight is in the center of the Octagon, although he doesn’t have much power (just two UFC knockouts). Still, between his volume striking and steady cardio, it’s enough for him to get past most rivals.

As for Means, he is now 39 years old and the American has seen better days as he’s lost his last two fights. He has a 14-11, 1 NC record in the UFC since joining the promotion back in 2012, with five wins by knockout. Like Morono, Means is more of a volume type of striker, and he’s made a career out of it. 

However, considering he is now 40 and has taken quite a bit of damage in his fights, he could finally be reaching the downside of his fighting career. Means will always fight tooth and nail to the bitter end, but I see Morono outstriking him in the matchup.

Even though he got knocked out in his last fight, overall, Morono has been far more consistent in recent years than Means. He is the younger fighter here, and his youth should help him outpoint Means to win this fight. Take Morono at -225, and for a prop, take him by decision.

UFC Charlotte Best Bet: Alex Morono wins at -225 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Charlotte Prop Bet: Alex Morono wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.