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Turners Novices' Chase Trends for 2024 Cheltenham Festival

Jessica Lamb for Bookies.com

Jessica Lamb  | 11 mins

Turners Novices' Chase Trends for 2024 Cheltenham Festival

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2024 Turners Novices' Chase Trends

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The last 10 winners

  • Last ran no more than 77 days ago - i.e. December
  • Had won one of their last three starts; eight winning last time
  • Had two to five starts that season and at least one win
  • Had run in two to five novice chases, winning at least once
  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Had three or more wins on a galloping track
  • Had run at Cheltenham before; eight winning
  • Had won at least once racing over a distance between 2m3f-2m6f

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Did not have the highest chase rating in the field (exception Yorkhill)
  • Aged six or seven (eight-year-old Samcro)
  • Last ran in a Graded chase; eight won
  • Had won a minimum of two races that season (Samcro)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Had won a Grade 1 (Chantry House and Black Hercules had not)

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Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • Five of this race's 13 winners last ran in a Graded novice chase at Leopardstown in January or February (Yorkhill, Vautour, Sir Des Champs, Benefficient, and Noble Prince), and that applies to an additional six placed horses (Faugheen, Disko, Apache Stronghold, Melon, Mengli Khan and Asterion Forlonge), although this hasn't been a good trend since 2017. Presently, the two options are the Irish Arkle and Ladbrokes Novice Chase. Il Etait Temps and Fact To File won those races in 2024, but the latter was a two-horse race, with one faller.
  • The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last 10 years (Defi Du Seuil), but it has also produced several placed horses. Nickle Back won this race in 2024 but is likely to skip Cheltenham for Aintree.

Trainer Trends

  • With four winners, Willie Mullins has dominated the Turners Novices' Chase, and he very nearly made it five with Melon, who was beaten a nose in 2020, and with Galopin Des Champs, who fell at the last in 2022 when 12 lengths clear.
  • Jonjo O'Neill, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are the only Britain-based trainers to have won the race, though Nigel Twiston-Davies and Henderson have saddled six placed horses between them.
  • In the 13-year history of the race, the prize has gone to Ireland on nine occasions.

Jockey Trends

  • With Willie Mullins having such a good record in this race, it obviously pays to focus on his regular big-race riders.

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How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Mighty Potter was the top trends pick and a worthy 4/6 favourite for Gordon Elliott, but he could only finish third, upholding the trend of the top-rated horse in the field failing to win. That does appear to be a stat to continue to follow. 

Having not won a Grade 1 chase, and having last run in a handicap chase, Stage Star was not a strong trends pick, but he was a Cheltenham chase winner, had won last time out, and had won a Grade 1 as a novice. He had also won plenty of times on galloping tracks, including over the course and distance.

Second Notlongtillmay was not an obvious selection as he had only run in handicaps.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2024?

Il Est Francais, fits a number of key trends, but has only raced in one novice chase in the past, winning comfortably at Kempton on Boxing Day. The standout trends pick at present is Paul Nicholls' Ginny's Destiny, who ticks every major trend from winners in the last 10 years. Unsurprisingly, the Willie Mullins pair of Fact to File and Gaelic Warrior are also string trends pics, but not as strong as Ginny's Destiny and Il Est Francais.

2024 Turner Novices' Chase Odds

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2023 Turners Novices' Chase Result

2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Result

Position Name Price Trainer Jockey
1st Stage Star 15/2 Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
2nd Notlongtillmay 40/1 LJ Morgan Adam Wedge
3rd Mighty Potter 6/1 Gordon Elliott Davy Russell
 

About the Author

Jessica Lamb is a multi-media journalist who specializes in horse racing, cycling and sports betting and has worked on desks at the Racing Post and Irish Sun newspapers.