Triumph Hurdle Trends and Free Bets for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

By Adam Kenny

Feb 13th, 2026 7:59 AM EST

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2026 Triumph Hurdle Trends

The Triumph hurdle is often something of a puzzle at the Cheltenham Festival but a popular race to use Cheltenham free bets on all the same. Featuring young, unexposed horses, some with a flat background, others who started their careers in France, it can be a tricky one to figure out.

Poniros' stunning 100/1 win here last year completely destroyed almost every trend and is the exception in all of the trends that fit nine of the last 10 winners. Here are some of the key Triumph Hurdle trends to be aware of before placing your bets at horse racing betting sites:

The last 10 winners:

• Had run up to five times over hurdles - five were unbeaten

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Finished in the first four on their last run, seven winning, including five of the last seven
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Last ran over hurdles, no more than 48 days ago, i.e. in late January or early February
• Had won all outings at Cheltenham, if they had run at the course before

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Were not fillies, despite 19 female runners, including a Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (exceptions Lossiemouth and Burning Victory)
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle race (exceptions Pentland Hills and Poniros)
• Had won at least one race between 1m7f and 2m1f (exceptions Poniros and Farclas)
• Had won at least one hurdles race (exceptions Poniros and Farclas)

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Flat racing form

Six of the last 10 Triumph Hurdle winners had run in flat races before switching to hurdles: Poniros, Vauban, Burning Victory, Pentland Hills, Farclas and Ivanovich Gorbatov. This is what they had in common:

• They had each run at least three times on the flat - but only two had run more than five times
• They had all won at least once - but no more than twice
• Five had won over no less than 1m3f (Poniros being the exception) but no more than 1m7f, with 1m4f being the sweet spot
• Three of the six had only run on the flat in France
• Two had won handicaps but most had not run in one
• Only Vauban had won, or run in, a Listed race

So when looking at contenders with flat form, pay attention to those that have won over at least 1m3f, preferably in France and not in handicaps, but not more than twice. It pays only to consider those that have run a maximum of five times on the flat, too.

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Key Trials in the last 10 years

Five of the last 10 winners last ran in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in early February (Quilixios, Farclas, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Vauban and Lossiemouth). However, only Quilixios and Vauban won that race before Festival glory, and every Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner in the last 13 years has run in the Triumph next.

Five of them have been placed, and a further four Triumph placings were filled by other Spring Juvenile runners. Hello Neighbour won the trial in 2025 and came sixth in the Triumph, whilst the 2026 Spring Juvenile was won by Narciso Has.

The Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in December is another Grade 1 contest that attracts some of the best juveniles, like 2016 winner Defi Du Seuil. 2019 and 2021 winners Allmankind and Adagio were placed in the Triumph the same season, but the 2021 winner could only finish sixth. The 2023 winner, Salver, finished third in last year's Triumph. Tenter Le Tour won the Chepstow race in 2025.

The Grade 3 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in January has produced one winner (Defi Du Seuil). East India Dock won in 2025 and went into the Triumph Hurdle as favourite, eventually coming third. 2026's winner of the Trial was Maestro Conti.

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Trainer Trends

• Nicky Henderson boasts a massive 18% strike rate in the Grade 1, having saddled two winners and five placed horses from only 11 runners since 2015. In that year he had the 1-2-3 and has saddled seven winners in his career.
• Philip Hobbs, now training in tandem with Johnson White, has won the race three times since the turn of the century, most recently with Defi Du Seuil in 2017.
• Gordon Elliott boasts an 18% strike rate in the Triumph Hurdle, having saddled two winners and four placed horses from just 11 runners overall.
• Willie Mullins first won the race in 2002 and did not saddle another winner until 2020, but he followed up in each of the last four years. He trained three of the top five last year and accounted for 11 of the 17 runners.
• Eight of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Jockey Trends

With five-time winner Barry Geraghty now retired, Paul Townend has taken over as the jockey to follow with three wins in the last five renewals for trainer Willie Mullins. He finished fourth in 2025 riding La Vega Allen, with Jonjo O'Neill Jr. riding winner Poniros.

How Did the Trends Do Last Year?

Poniros completely threw any sort of logic right out of the window last year, winning at a Cheltenham Festival record 100/1 on his hurdles debut. The four-year-old was coming off a nothing result (22nd of 31) some 167 days previously and hadn't finished higher than third in a race for almost a year. The only thing going for him was being trained by Willie Mullins, who made it four victories in a row in this race and had three of the top five.

11/4 second-favourite Lulamba, who came second by a neck, fit every trend going into the race, so it's no surprise he was right there at the finish.

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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2026?

Poniros' win last year caused a rule change for the Triumph Hurdle and now horses in Grade 1 juvenile and novice hurdles need a rating of at least 110.

Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner Narciso Has will likely be the one to watch in this race, having made an impressive start to his career with two other hurdle victories to go with the one at Leopardstown. The Willie Mullins horse was rated 144 for that Grade 1 affair and won it comfortably, meaning two of his three career successes have come over 2m.

Another Mullins horse in Charme De Faust also fits plenty of the trends, having claimed victory in a 2m Maiden Hurdle at Thurles at the tail end of January. She was ridden by three-time Triumph Hurdle winner Paul Townend on that day, although she will be up against it as a filly.

Check out the latest Cheltenham ante post odds:

2025 Triumph Hurdle Result

Cheltenham Festival 2026 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

• Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Arkle Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Ultima Handicap Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Trends
• Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends
• National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

• Turners Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends
• Coral Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Chase Trends
• Grand Annual Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Bumper Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

• Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
• Pertemps Final Trends
• Ryanair Chase Trends
• Stayers' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Trends
• Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

• Triumph Hurdle Trends
• County Hurdle Trends
• Mares' Chase Trends
• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends
• Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends

About the Author

Adam Kenny

More About Adam

Adam has worked in online betting for pretty much his entire adult life. Having spent over a decade working for some of the biggest betting sites and online casinos in their operations and content teams, NFL, soccer and horse racing are Adam's main focuses, but there's always room for him to cast his eye over a new slot game or casino.

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