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Premier League Top Six Odds 2023/24

Matthew Glazier for Bookies.com

Matthew Glazier  | 13 mins

Premier League Top Six Odds 2023/24

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If you’re looking for an alternative Premier League betting market, the Premier League top-six market provides customers with the chance to bet on any team to finish higher than seventh in the final overall standings.

The beauty of this market is that six teams will be settled as a winner, and it’s also an opportunity to bet on a club who might not realistically be able to secure a top-four place in the top flight but are in with a stronger chance when it comes to landing a spot in the Europa League. 

Tottenham Hotspur have been big market movers since the start of the season, with Spurs securing 13 points from their opening five matches. They could be battling it out with Newcastle, Chelsea and Brighton when it comes to landing a place in the Europa League. 

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You might not find a competitive price on the Premier League title favourites such as Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool to finish in the top six. 

However, betting apps have priced up every other team in the top flight to secure a European spot, and we often get a few surprises in this market like Brighton last season, who finished sixth. 

The Seagulls have made a flying start to the 2023/24 campaign, recording four wins already, including recent defeats of Newcastle and Manchester United. Roberto de Zerbi's team are trading at odds-on to repeat last season's top-six achievement, although Tottenham Hotspur could be even stronger challengers, according to the latest prices. 

Despite losing Harry Kane, it has been 13 points on the board for Spurs this term, and bookmakers currently think that Ange Postecoglou's side are likely to finish sixth or higher based on their achievements to date, although it's still early in the season. 

Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are trading at prohibitive prices to finish sixth or higher, although the bookmakers are less convinced that Manchester United and Chelsea are guaranteed to secure these positions. The Red Devils have lost three of their opening five matches and they've drifted to finish sixth or higher. Similarly, Chelsea don't look certain to be in the top sextet of teams. 

Here are the latest Premier League top-six odds, from some of the best sports betting sites sites: 

Premier League - Top 6
Best Odds
% Chance
Man City
98.91%
--
--
--
--
--
Arsenal
91.66%
--
--
--
--
--
Liverpool
90.50%
--
--
--
--
--
Tottenham
68.73%
--
--
--
--
--
Newcastle
67.75%
--
--
--
--
--
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Tottenham Look Like Early Top-Six Contenders

Only Manchester City sit above Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League table. After the departure of Harry Kane, supporters were prepared for this to be a transitional season under Ange Postecoglou, although their expectation levels have increased a notch after consecutive wins over Manchester United, Bournemouth, Burnley and Sheffield United.

While it's still early in the season, the fact that 13 goals have been scored in five matches suggests that Tottenham could be one of the most vibrant teams in the top flight from an attacking point-of-view. Heung-Min Son scored a hat-trick at Turf Moor, with James Maddison also purring since his move from Leicester City

The fact that the London outfit aren't competing in Europe this season means they can focus on the Premier League, and football betting sites certainly give them a strong chance of finishing sixth or higher.

If Spurs are to land a top-six spot, it will have to be at the expense of another leading team. Newcastle went into the international break with just three points on the board, although the Magpies were able to steady the ship with a victory over Brentford. Meanwhile, Chelsea are still in a state of transition despite an enormous amount of money being spent on players, and they were beaten at home to Nottingham Forest before a goalless draw at Bournemouth. 

After a dramatic 3-1 defeat at the Emirates Stadium and having the same scoreline inflicted on them by Brighton, new betting sites think that Manchester United could also be vulnerable. The Red Devils might have beaten Arsenal on another day, but they have looked far from convincing against the Seagulls.

Newcastle are now regarded as an elite Premier League club under former Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe, and that is reflected in their top-six odds for this season. A 5-1 victory over Aston Villa in their opening clash was quite a statement and the bookies still think a top six finish is on the cards despite three consecutive defeats against tough opponents before that win over the Bees.

The Tyneside outfit are odds-on for a top-six finish next season, although Chelsea, are on the drift. It might be that the above two teams are battling it out with Brighton for a top-six finish after the Seagulls registered twelve points on the board and they're averaging three goals per game. 

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Brighton More Likely to Land Top Six Spot Than Manchester United

Things are not going well for Manchester United who are now big outsiders to finish in the Premier League top four. Although they are trading at odds-on with most betting sites to finish in the top six, Erik Ten Hag's side could feasibly finish seventh or lower considering the relative strength of the other leading teams.

Brighton claimed a 3-1 win at Old Trafford recently to move six points clear of the Red Devils and they are now regarded as a more likely top six finisher than the Red Devils. They are also expected to finish higher than a Chelsea team who have only won one of their opening five encounters, with the Blues having finished in the bottom half of the table last term. 

Arsenal were regarded as top-four outsiders last season before a ball was kicked. However, they have now been installed as top-six certainties after landing Declan Rice from West Ham. It seems improbable that they will drop out of the top half dozen places and they have thirteen points on the board already. 

The bookies think that Aston Villa could still be lively contenders and they were able to come from behind to land a 3-1 win over Crystal Palace, with Unai Emery's side having now secured three victories from their opening five clashes. 

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History of the Premier League Big Six

Manchester City and Arsenal were a long way clear of the pack last season, with Manchester United and Newcastle also claiming Champions League spots. Liverpool and Brighton were the other teams to make up the top six.

Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United were the top six the previous season, but Leicester and West Ham were able to finish above Spurs and the Gunners 12 months previously.

Leicester also landed fifth spot in 2020-21 during a season where Arsenal finished in a lowly eighth, although the 2018-19 season saw the original Big Six dominate the landscape, and the same applies to the 2017-18 and 2016-17 campaigns.   

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Consider Cash Out on the Premier League Top-Six Betting

While six teams will be settled as winners on the Premier League top-six betting market, it doesn’t mean that you can’t make a profit in a different way. For example, you could back a Brighton, West Ham or Aston Villa at a decent price and then look at potentially cashing out your bet further down the line. Cash out is available at most of the best sports betting sites, so this option should be available.

This is known as a back-to-lay strategy, and the alternative is that you can include a Premier League top-six selection as part of a season-long multiple bet. This is something that is done with the shorter-priced picks that are combined with other favorites in different betting markets in order to land a bigger price.

About the Author

Matthew Glazier for Bookies.com
Matthew Glazier
Matthew Glazier, the former Head of Marketing at bet365, is a veteran in the online betting industry and contributes to Bookies.com.