World Cup Golden Boot Odds: Mbappé Steals March on Messi With Bronze Final Brace

By Matthew Glazier

Jul 19th, 2026 4:13 AM EDT

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The race for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot has come down to two names. Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé are the only two players who can still win it. But it is advantage Mbappé after he scored a brace in the Bronze Final Saturday night to take his tally to 10, compared to Messi's eight.

So the Frenchman is now the clear favourite as Messi needs to score two in the final to draw level, and that could be a big ask against a Spain team that have conceded just one goal all tournament.

This has been the biggest World Cup yet at top UK betting sites. Across more than 100 games punters have had a huge number of markets at their disposal, from match odds to the outright markets for the Golden Boot and who will lift the trophy at football betting sites. The top-goalscorer race has been one of the most intriguing of the lot.

Every betting app will have a Top Goalscorer market, and there are always lots of viable contenders. In the past, we’ve seen big-priced winners and also players at big top goalscorer odds take some of the place money. Therefore, this article will look at the Golden Boot market and outline the best options should you wish to wager on one of the most popular betting markets at World Cup betting sites.

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World Cup Golden Boot Odds

The World Cup Golden Boot betting market is available across all fast withdrawal betting sites, with a long list of players and their odds. Messi did not score in the semi-final win over England, but his two assists edged him ahead of Mbappé on the official tie-breaker, which counts assists before minutes played. If neither man scores again, the award goes to Messi. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are the only outside hopes on six goals, and both need a big play-off plus a blank from the top two. Erling Haaland finished on seven but Norway are already out.

With the tournament down to its last two games, this is now a straight win market rather than an each-way play. Messi and Mbappé are the only realistic winners, so it comes down to who finishes with the most goals, with the assists tie-breaker in Messi’s favour if they stay level.

Kylian Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe needs little introduction. The France national team captain won the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot when scoring eight goals at the last World Cup. That included a hat-trick in the final against Argentina after netting a brace in Les Bleus’ last-16 clash against Poland.

The forward enjoyed a stunning season in front of goal for Real Madrid with close to 50 goals across all competitions, and he carried that form into the tournament. He sits on eight goals after scoring in the quarter-final to send France into the last four, which leaves him level with Messi at the top of the World Cup odds market.

France were beaten by Spain in the semi-finals, so Saturday’s third-place play-off helped him get a gap between himself and Messi.

Harry Kane

England reached the semi-finals before losing to Argentina, and Harry Kane has been central to the run. The Bayern Munich forward seems to be improving with age despite only finding the net twice at the 2022 World Cup.

He previously won the 2018 Golden Boot with six goals and is the first name on the teamsheet for manager Thomas Tuchel. The 32-year-old has an impressive 85 goals in 119 international appearances, having scored six during the World Cup so far, and he averages over a goal per game for the German champions.

He is also the penalty taker for England, which has helped him to six goals so far. He ended the tournament with six goals. Our England's World Cup betting odds page has more on how their run unfolded.

Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi has been residing in the US since making the switch to Inter Miami in 2023. The Argentina captain helped his country win the 2022 tournament in Qatar, and this will surely be his final World Cup.

The decorated forward is the all-time leading scorer for La Albiceleste and has been averaging nearly a goal per game for his MLS club. He also scored seven times in Qatar to narrowly miss out on the prize, and this time Argentina have gone all the way to the final, giving Messi one last stage to add to his tally.

A hat-trick in Argentina's opening game of the World Cup set the tone and Messi then broke the record for most World Cup goals of all time with a brace against Austria. He is on eight goals in total, and while he did not add to that in the quarter-final against Switzerland or the semi-final win over England, his assist against the Three Lions nudged him ahead of Mbappé on the Golden Boot tie-breaker. Sunday’s final against Spain provides a chance to go ahead of the French talisman once again.

Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham has a habit of popping up with crucial goals for England that's been the case at this World Cup, too. He's gone somewhat under the radar after starting with two goals in England's first four games when the likes of Messi, Mbappe and Kane were scoring for fun, but he's got everyone's attention now.

Two goals in England's quarter-final win over Norway ensured he remained in the headlines after also doing so in the last-16 victory against Mexico, making the 23-year-old only the seventh player in World Cup history to score a brace in two consecutive knockout games. He’ll be looking to sign off strongly in the third-place play-off against France. He came off the bench to score a goal and end the tournament with seven goals.

World Cup Betting Sites

There are lots of great bookmakers to choose from for the closing stages of the 2026 World Cup. These World Cup betting sites all offer you generous football free bet offers when you sign up for an account. They also provide a first-class betting service on the big tournament. This includes a huge range of outright, match and in-play markets. It means you have plenty of choice when punting on the big event.

Sign up with the World Cup bookmaker that holds the most appeal to you. We recommend having more than one betting account to take full advantage of the best odds and promotions across the final weekend.

You need to ensure you choose operators that have football front and centre for pre-game and live in-play coverage. That coverage matters most for the big matches still to come this weekend.

World Cup Free Bets

World Cup betting sites are giving out a lot of free bets right through the tournament, with each bookmaker competing for your attention all the way to the final. It’s pretty common to find a free bet available when you sign up, make a first deposit and place a qualifying bet. Sometimes you might get £30 in free bets when you bet £10.

There are often matched deposits too. Some bookmakers will give you a 100% deposit bonus when signing up. It’s great to have a boosted bankroll for the closing games. Alternatively, you might find enhanced odds on the table. A bookie might have a team to win at inflated odds and allow new customers to place a small stake on this selection. Price boosts are also made available every day for existing customers at top betting sites.

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How Does World Cup Top Goalscorer Each Way Betting Work?

If you place an each-way Top Goalscorer bet, you can still win if your player misses out on the main prize but finishes with a decent goal return. Most World Cup betting sites will be paying four or five places with their each-way terms. It means that an each-way bet has your stake split between the win market and the place market. For the latter, the stake is multiplied by a quarter of the odds, so 8/1 becomes 2/1 for this purpose.

How Many Goals Are Needed to be World Cup Top Goalscorer?

Kylian Mbappe won the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot with eight goals, although it generally doesn’t take that many to win this prize. Four years earlier, Harry Kane won with just six goals, while James Rodriguez got the same number for Colombia during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

The previous two winners both finished on five, who were Miroslav Klose in 2006 and Thomas Muller in 2010. The most goals scored in a World Cup continues to be held by Just Fontaine who scored an incredible 13 in the 1958 World Cup, although we should expect the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot to be won with a decent haul.

The new format meant some teams played eight games, and the group-stage mismatches gave the leading players plenty of chances to pad their tallies early on.

This year’s race looks set to be settled on at least eight goals, matching or bettering Mbappé’s winning total from four years ago. There is still value to be found in the closing games when betting with top £5 deposit betting sites.

World Cup Top Scorer Betting Tip

This is a straight win market now rather than an each-way play, and no UK site is offering each-way on it at this stage. Messi is odds-on for good reason. He is the only one of the front two certain to feature again and Argentina will lean on him in the final. Mbappé is the danger if France start him on Saturday, though he needs to score and then hope Messi draws a blank on Sunday. At current prices Messi is the solid call and Mbappé the value pick for anyone who thinks he plays and fires.

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Upcoming World Cup Games

• Sunday, 19 July, 8pm (UK) - Argentina vs Spain (final)

World Cup Golden Boot History

About the Author

Matthew Glazier

More About Matthew

Matthew’s been a professional gambling content writer for over 15 years. Before this, he was Head of Marketing for bet365. He helped build the in-house affiliate programme for the Stoke-on-Trent-based giant. He’s also enjoyed spells with Betfair, William Hill and Sporting Index, and he brings all that industry experience to the table.

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