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What is the NCAAB Public Consensus?
College basketball public consensus is simply the wager favored by the majority of bettors for any given contest, usually expressed in a percentage of bets. The consensus provides insight as to how the betting public feels about a particular wager and can also influence NCCAB point spreads if enough money flows in one direction.
How Can NCAAB Consensus Affect your Betting Decision?
How are bets breaking down in the sportsbook? That’s what the public consensus tells you. And given that college basketball is a sport dominated by a handful of blue-blood programs, expect teams like Duke and Kansas to always receive the bulk of public consensus wagers when they’re not playing each other.
If a lot of public money comes in on one team — typically the case when an elite team like North Carolina is playing a little-known foe — online sportsbooks will often adjust the line a point to accommodate. But keep in mind when anchor that the public consensus is comprised overwhelmingly of amateur or casual bettors who wager out of name recognition or favoritism and might not offer the most reliable barometer of which team is truly the best bet.
That leads to a bettor’s first real decision: to go with the public consensus or against it. There are times when the public consensus may be a helpful road map toward a successful wager, and others when it might pay to stay away from it completely. The key is knowing the difference.
Should I Bet With or Against the Public?
Determining whether to follow the crowd in betting is often a matter of timing. During those moments when all eyes are on college basketball – the NCAA Tournament, the Final Four, and a few rare regular-season games like Duke against North Carolina – the market can be flooded with public money, much of it coming from amateur or casual bettors wagering simply on name recognition.
But those brand names are hardly guaranteed winners. Consider that in the 2018-19 season, Duke, which spent most of the year at No. 1, went just 18-20 against the spread, covering in just one of its final nine games. National champion Virginia lost 12 games against the spread, including four of its last seven. The three most reliable covers in college basketball in 2018-19? Drake, Cal State Northridge and Ole Miss, hardly programs that public money will flock to.
So, when it comes to the public consensus, the key is to pick your spots. During the Final Four, it can be wise to look askance at the consensus given how many dabblers flood the market. The consensus might offer a better guide to games below the radar, given that it takes a little more knowledge to lay action on a matchups that don’t include the nation’s best-known teams. It’s also a valuable tool for futures betting.
I’ve Taken Note of the College Basketball Consensus. What Happens Now?
The college basketball consensus tool available at Bookies makes it easy to know where the public money is going on any given contest. Once you’ve chosen your wager and weighed whether to go with or against the public, then comes the fun part – actually placing the bet.
Say you’re eyeing a game between Seton Hall and Marquette, and via the Bookies consensus tool you’ve learned the bulk of public money is on the Pirates. Given the conditions surrounding the matchup – the location, the point spread, and any injuries and trends – you’ve come to the conclusion that the public consensus is the best bet. Then it’s a matter of comparing the odds at the many licensed and regulated U.S.-based sportsbooks available at Bookies, assuming you’re in a state where sports betting is legal.
After that? Sit back, enjoy the game – and hopefully, collect once it’s over.