Because not every bettor is totally analytical about how they place their wagers, with it being fairly common for fans to want to put down a couple of bucks on their favorite team regardless of the odds or their chances of success, popular teams can wind up with shorter odds.
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What is the MLB Public Consensus?
The MLB consensus is the wager that the majority of the betting public is backing in any given contest. It’s usually expressed in a percentage of bets – if 75 percent of bets are on the Dodgers against the Marlins, for example, then it’s clear who the betting public believes will win.
How Influential Should the MLB Consensus Be on My Bets?
As in any sport, bettors can go with the public consensus or wager against it. MLB odds, though, are a bit of a different animal in the sportsbook. There’s no point spread per se – the often low-scoring nature of the game makes that infeasible – so moneylines are employed, favoring a team to either win outright, or win by 1.5 runs or more, which is called the run line. That makes baseball a more complicated wager for the casual bettor, so its handle (the total amount of money bet) is relatively low when compared to basketball and football.
All of those factors combine to give the public consensus in MLB betting a little more credence, since the sport isn’t bet as heavily as others, and doesn’t attract as many amateur wagerers. Now, that doesn’t mean the public consensus is always correct —remember the Astros, massive public favorites who were shocked by the Orioles and Tigers within a span of 10 days in 2019. But those instances were historic due to their rarity, and by and large the flow of public money in MLB betting can be a more accurate barometer of success than the consensus is in other sports.
Is Betting with the Public a Good Idea?
While MLB wagers may constitute a relatively low percentage of sportsbook bets overall — 23 percent in Nevada in 2017, according to the UNLV Center for Gaming Research — there are still times when the sport is irresistible to casual bettors. That’s especially true during the playoffs and World Series, the All-Star Game, and those summer nights when few if any other sports are being played.
Those are the limited instances when it might be best to think twice about following the public consensus, given the higher-than-usual number of amateur wagers that may be skewing the bet percentages. That’s especially true when an ultra-popular team — hello, Red Sox and Yankees — are in the mix. Contrast that with, say, a Diamondbacks-Rockies game on a Tuesday night, where those laying action on the contest are typically more knowledgeable about were the two teams stand.
As in any sport, savvy bettors are able to tell when the public consensus is legitimate, and when it’s being influenced by a glut of cash bet solely out of name recognition or favoritism. Thankfully, those latter instances aren’t as common in baseball as they are in other sports that are more popular wagers in the sportsbook.
I Understand the MLB Consensus. What Happens Now?
The MLB consensus tool available at Bookies.com makes it easy to know where the public money is going on any given contest. Once you’ve chosen your wager and weighed whether to go with or against the public, then comes the fun part – actually placing the bet.
Say you’re considering a matchup between the Cubs and Cardinals, and the Bookies.com consensus tool indicates that the majority of public money is on St. Louis. You’ve done your homework, and understand how the location, weather, pitching matchups and any injuries may impact the outcome.
After that, it’s just a matter of comparing the odds at the licensed and regulated U.S.-based sportsbooks you’ll see here, click on the odds you like and you’ll be taken to the sportsbook, assuming you’re in a state where sports betting is legal. If you are a first-time bettor there, make sure to include the promo code to get your bonus offer, place your wager and enjoy the game.