Are Mets or Phillies Better Bet For More 2020 MLB Victories?
The Philadelphia Phillies beat the New York Mets in 12 of the 19 meetings between the two teams in 2019. But the Mets won 86 games, five more than the Phils’ 81.
Both teams have reason to believe the 60-game MLB regular season of 2020 can be to their benefit. And maybe they’re both right. But which team should be the MLB betting choice to win more games?
DraftKings has posted props matching teams and win totals for the 2020 MLB regular season. One of them includes these National League rivals.
|Team||Odds||Bet It At|
|New York Mets||-124||DraftKings|
MLB odds current as of publication
Bookies.com breaks down the line and makes a pick on the MLB prop.
The Phillies thought 2019 would be their year after inking Bryce Harper to a massive 13-year, $330 million contract. It wasn’t, as they went just 81-81 and finished fourth out of five teams in the NL East.
It wasn’t Harper’s fault – he had 35 HRs and a career-high 114 RBIs. Despite his effort, Philly finished in the bottom half of the league in runs, HR and RBIs. And the pitching staff was in the bottom half in ERA, runs allowed and walks allowed.
They added a few win-now veterans in free agency, including Andrew McCutchen to lead off. Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto are in the heart of the order, as well. Philly’s offense should be a force.
Aaron Nola is a top-tier pitcher at the top of the rotation and they added to their lineup and subtracted from the Mets by signing No. 2 hurler Zack Wheeler.
The Mets’ offense has more question marks. Jeff McNeill proved to be an effective contact hitter (.318 average, 23 HRs) but he had only five steals and is the leadoff hitter. Home-run crusher Pete Alonso had a record-breaking rookie year and will bat No. 2. Robinson Cano was a major disappointment in his first season in New York, but he’s slated to be No. 3.
Some of the questions on offense can be answered with the pitching. Jacob deGrom is the two-time defending NL Cy Young Award ace. He’s the best pitcher in the league. His running mate, Noah Syndergaard, is out for the year. He’s replaced in the rotation by Rick Porcello, who went 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA for the Red Sox last year. Michael Wacha, who struggled for the Cardinals last year, was brought in as well. If he can find his 2018 form (8-2, 3.20 ERA), he could be a steal.
The Phillies should be the better-hitting team of the two. Philadelphia also might have the better rotation. New York has the edge on bullpen, though last year it should have as well and it ranked 26th in ERA.
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To reduce travel time among teams this short season, each division matches up with the similar division from the other league. In this case, each NL East team plays the others 10 times, and each team from the AL East for four games. So on paper, the Phillies and Mets have a very similar schedule.
Each team, in fact, finishes with series vs. the Rays and Nationals. Philadelphia’s final six games are on the road, while the Mets end with four at Washington.
If getting off to a hot start is important – it might put pressure on other teams – the Phillies have an advantage. New York opens the season with three games vs. the Braves, four vs. Boston, four more at Atlanta then a two-game series at Washington. Philadelphia opens at home for a three-game series vs. the Marlins, plays four vs. the Yankees, with three-game series vs. the Blue Jays and the Marlins again.
If one team “wins” a schedule comparison for MLB futures betting purposes, the Phillies get the slight nod.
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The Mets struggled through the first half of the 2019 season but were as hot as any team down the stretch. If they can pick up where they left off, New York could have the edge in this futures wager.
But the Mets have a lot of question marks. On paper they’re solid, but will Cano bounce back? Can Yoenis Cespedes stay healthy (he’s managed 38 games last year and 81 in 2017)? Can Porcello, Wacha and Steven Matz hold up in the back end of the rotation? Can the bullpen rebound from a poor 2019?
If the answer is “yes” to the above, the Mets are a contender in the NL East and a contender to better the rival Phillies. It would be tough if the answer is “no.”
Neither team matched expectations in the NL East in 2019, and 2020 is going to be tough as well with the Braves and Nationals considered the top two teams coming into the season. But the Phillies and Mets each have reason to believe they can be there in the end, too. And they’re both right.
But the Phillies have a better chance. The Mets have more questions in their order and throughout their pitching corps. The Phillies need to prove they can get it done as well. At worst, it’s even. The Phillies are at plus odds, giving them the better value on the board. Take the Phillies to win more games in 2020 with DraftKings.
About the Author
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and college football and established himself as an elite MLB expert in 2018, hitting 61 percent of his money line picks for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players, ending the season on a 22-4 run including 100 percent on World Series games. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB and college football. Now he shares the insight he gained at Bookies.com through well-reasoned picks and thought-provoking articles and on Twitter at @_Adam_Thompson_.