Derek Carr Next Team Odds: Retirement Still Likely, But Steelers And Vikings Among Options For NFL Comeback

Carr sat out the 2025 NFL season (USATODAY)
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Longtime NFL quarterback Derek Carr retired after the 2024 season due to a severe shoulder injury. But now, after sitting out for a year, there are rumblings that Carr could return to the gridiron, and he'd be of interest to a few teams across NFL betting apps.

Indeed, the four-time Pro Bowl QB has stated he may make a comeback on two conditions: one, that he is healthy, and two, that he joins a team that can win the Super Bowl.

With Carr potentially making a return to the NFL, Bookies.com has put together hypothetical betting odds for where he could make his comeback.

Bookies has a bevy of Next Team Odds ahead of the NFL draft, including Mike Evans and Breece Hall.

Derek Carr Next Team Odds

OutcomeOddsImplied Probability
Remain Retired/No NFL Team+14041.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers+45018.2%
Minnesota Vikings+55015.4%
Miami Dolphins+65013.3%
New York Jets+15006.3%
New Orleans Saints+20004.8%
Cincinnati Bengals+45002.2%
Las Vegas Raiders+50002.0%

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What Does 2026 Hold For Derek Carr?

Remain Retired/No NFL Team (+140)

Carr retired after last season for a reason, as serious shoulder injuries left him unable to throw the football at the highest level of the sport. While he says he is feeling better and is considering a comeback, it won’t be easy for him to make a return to the football field after a year off, considering all of the injuries that he’s dealt with. The odds are that Carr is done with football for good, which is why he is favored to remain retired despite the rumors of him making a comeback.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+450)

The Pittsburgh Steelers will have a new head coach for the first time in 19 years after Mike Tomlin left the team following another failed playoff run. New head coach Mike McCarthy is expected to try to lure QB Aaron Rodgers back for another season, but considering he is 42 years old, there is no guarantee that Rodgers will play again. If he walks away, then the Steelers will be in the market for a new QB, and Carr would be a great fit with the team. The Steelers are always in playoff contention, so Carr would have the opportunity to make a postseason run with them.

Minnesota Vikings (+550)

The Minnesota Vikings missed the playoffs last year despite a winning 9-8 record, but they have the pieces in place to turn things around, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make the postseason next year. Young QB JJ McCarthy struggled badly last year, and the Vikings are rumored to be bringing in a veteran quarterback to provide competition with him. While a reunion with Kirk Cousins has been heavily rumored, perhaps Carr would be a better fit for the Vikings.

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Miami Dolphins (+650)

The Miami Dolphins have been led by QB Tua Tagovailoa for the past six seasons, but after a disastrous year that saw him benched down the stretch and saw former HC Mike McDaniel fired, the Dolphins are expected to move on from their former franchise quarterback this offseason. If that happens, then the Dolphins will be in the market for a new QB, and Carr would be a great fit for them, although they likely aren’t the Super Bowl contender that he wants to join.

New York Jets (+1500)

The New York Jets will for sure have a new starting QB next year. After running out Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor last season and enduring another awful season at the sport's most important position, the Jets need a big upgrade behind center. There aren’t many QB prospects available in the NFL Draft, so the Jets will likely sign a free agent to man the position next season. If Carr is willing to try and help the Jets turn their franchise around, then he makes a lot of sense with them. But if going to a Super Bowl contender is the priority, then Carr will likely look elsewhere.

New Orleans Saints (+2000)

The New Orleans Saints were Carr’s home from 2023 to 2024 before he retired. He played well for the Saints, but after he retired, the team drafted Tyler Shough, who had a solid rookie season. Still, the Saints could turn back to Carr if he decides to return, as he knows the team well, and he had a winning record with them his first time around.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4500)

The Cincinnati Bengals currently have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Joe Burrow starting for them. But there have been some rumors that Burrow could be unhappy with his situation, and the Bengals could look to move him. If that happens, then the Bengals will need a QB, and Carr would fit in nicely slinging it to their group of elite wide receivers.

Las Vegas Raiders (+5000)

Carr was the starting quarterback for the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders from 2014 to 2022, making the Pro Bowl four times during that time and helping bring stability to a Raiders franchise that had trouble finding a solid QB before he showed up. The Raiders currently have Geno Smith as their starting QB and will likely draft Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. But if the Raiders cut Smith, perhaps Carr could return to his former team as a mentor to Mendoza, though it is a bit of a long shot, given he is looking to return to a Super Bowl contender, something the Raiders are not.

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