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NFL 2023 Week 11 Betting Recap: Eagles-Chiefs ‘Biggest Game’ Of Year?

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 8 mins

NFL 2023 Week 11 Betting Recap: Eagles-Chiefs ‘Biggest Game’ Of Year?

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The biggest game of the NFL betting season may take place Monday night when the Eagles and Chiefs meet in a Super Bowl 57 rematch. 

The line has shifted just slightly from Kansas City -2.5 to -3, depending on where you shop. DraftKings Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello had this game marked when the NFL schedule was released six months ago. 

“When I first looked at it, I believed this will be the biggest NFL betting game of the year. If it gets there or not, I don’t know. It’s stuck right in the middle of the NFL season and both teams are playing well. They have lived up to their hype.” 

Avellos said the game will be” heavily watched and heavily bet.” He isn’t surprised at the “back and forth” nature of this line movement. “They like the Chiefs at 3 even and the Eagles at 2.5."

The Chiefs and Eagles are 16-4 on the under heading into Monday night’s game. Avello credits that “surprising” number to their respective defenses. 

The total has moved from 48.5 down to 46, notes PointsBet Senior Editor Max Meyer. The unders are 11-1 on Monday night this season.

‘Welcome Aboard, Taylor’

The presence, or lack thereof, of Taylor Swift has become something for oddsmakers to be aware of, Avello said. Not in terms of setting lines, but in terms of expanding offerings and “adding to the story.” Swift was not expected to be in attendance Monday night. 

Avello cannot remember a similar situation where public money has swayed based on the possible appearance of someone at a game who isn’t playing or coaching. 

“Taylor Swift is a marketing machine. She’s one of the top revenue producers as an entertainer in the world. She’s amazing,” he said. “This is good for our business. If Taylor Swift is going to bring in some new people interested in the NFL. That’s fine. Welcome aboard, Taylor.” 

Plenty Of Action Expected Elsewhere

Circa Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson had not seen in excessive amount of action on Monday night’s game as of Sunday. But he expects that it will be “very popular” on Monday heading into kickoff. 

Caesars Sportsbook sees Monday night's game landing among the most-bet this season, but not necessarily at No. 1. 

“While the action is pretty balanced for this marquee matchup, the public is on the Eagles and the Over tonight,' said Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook Adam Pullen. “We’re projecting this to be a Top 10 game in terms of total handle this season. There’s a ways to go in more betting action today, but that’s where our current projection lines. You’ve got two great teams, a primetime kickoff and the spread is close – that typically generates a high-handle game.”

At FanDuel, 60% of bets and 69% of handle are on the Chiefs to cover at -2.5. The book has Jalen Hurts with the highest percentage of bets (22%) and handle (31%) for Anytime TD Scorer, followed by Travis Kelce and AJ Brown.

In general, the spread handle is within the margin of error on an even split. Hence the movement. The same is holding with the total. FanDuel has 51% of its handle on the over (45.5 points) and 49% of handle on the under. 

Not surprisingly, there’s monstrous interest in the Eagles-Chiefs game on the East Coast. 

“The Chiefs and Eagles will be a huge game for us. It’s the Super Bowl rematch but means a little more here with us having such a big Philly customer base. Advance handle has been great so far. It will probably end up being the biggest MNF game of the season for us so far,” Borgata AC Director of Race and Sports Thomas Gable said Sunday.

Week 11 Breakdown By The Book

NFL 2023 Week 11 Betting Recap: Eagles-Chiefs ‘Biggest Game’ Of Year? 1

The public finally landed in the black on Sunday, thanks in part to a mostly upset-free day that allowed parlays and teasers to remain intact. The books scored their biggest win of the day when the Lions failed to cover in their 31-26 comeback win over Chicago. 

Detroit had a chance to cover the 7.5 points after Aidan Hutchinson forced a Justin Fields fumble on the Bears 15. Chicago offensive lineman Darnell Wright kicked the ball through the end zone, forcing a safety. Had Hutchinson been able to get to the ball in the end zone, the resulting TD would have delivered a cover for the Lions. 

This is another reminder to all that there is no such thing as a “bad beat” since there is money on both sides of every play. 

It’s just a win or loss. 

As Oscar Madison told us 53 years ago: “There is no such thing as a sure thing. That’s why they call it gambling."

Borgata AC: "We kept our heads above water. It was one of those days that you knew going in unless one of the big favorites lost outright, you’d need some big decisions to go your way elsewhere on the card. Ironically, the Giants winning outright was the best result for us. Even people here had given up on (QB Tommy) DeVito after what he looked like in previous weeks,” Gable said.

Beau Rivage Casino: The Mississippi Race and SportsBook Manager Carl Johnson reports a nifty 5-leg parlay win. One bettor wagered $100,000 and won $304,000 on: Browns -1; Texans ML -250; Cowboys ML -550; Dolphins ML -900; and 49ers ML -650.

BetMGM: “There are a lot of big spreads in NFL Week 11. Moneyline parlays and teasers will be popular with bettors. The sportsbook needs a few underdogs to win outright,”  BetMGM Trading Manager Christian Cipollini said early Sunday. While the public rode a near-upset free Sunday in terms of those big moneyline plays, the book scored when the Lions failed to cover. Detroit was BetMGM’s most-bet team in terms of tickets and handle Sunday. The Cowboys (-10.5) had the highest percentage of public backing in terms of spread handle at 78%. Dallas rolled over Carolina 33-10.

Circa Sports: The book had a “bad day all around, couldn’t win a game” reported Benson. We “got sided in the 49ers game.” That was a 27-14 win for San Francisco in a game that closed at San Francisco -13.5 after opening at San Francisco -10.

DraftKings: The Boston-based book won on four of its five most-bet team ATS. The Lions, Dolphins, Steelers, and 49ers all failed to cover as favorites, with the Steelers losing outright. Things went much better for the public on the moneyline and parlay front, as 4 of the top-five most-bet teams won outright: Cowboys, Lions, 49ers, and Dolphins. The public scored in the TD scorer prop market. The top three most-bet Anytime TD scorers (David Montgomery, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill) and No. 5 player (Tony Pollard) all found the end zone.

Survivor Pool Update

The Washington Commanders loss to the Giants took out 235 of the remaining 609 entries in the Circa Survivor pool this week. Through Week 12, there are just 372 entrants remaining from 9,267 that began the season, or 4.01%. 

Major Bets Of Note

Hard Rock Bet (Florida)

Payout: $10,927.11 a $4 11-Leg Parlay 

Included several NFL and NBA plays

Caesars Sportsbook

Loss: $60,00 on Broncos -2.5. (-110)

DraftKings

Loss: $5,000 on Raiders ML (+625)

Win: $2,800 on $20 (+14000) Rondale Moore 1st TD Scorer In NFL Sunday

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.