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Taylor Swift's Tortured Poets Department: Will She Sell More Than 10 Million Copies?

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 5 mins

Taylor Swift's Tortured Poets Department: Will She Sell More Than 10 Million Copies?

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Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour has already grossed over $1 billion, becoming the most financially successful show of all time before the international leg even started. 

The ‘Eras Tour’ movie released in theatres nationwide last October surpassed ‘Michael Jackson’s This Is It’ as the No. 1 concert and documentary film of all time, earning more than $261.6 million at the box office. 

After selling out NFL stadiums across the country, her mere presence as an observer while supporting boyfriend and future Hall of Fame Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce sent pro football ratings through the roof in 2023 and dominated social media conversations all season. 

While in the process of winning two more Grammys to add to her total of 14, including Album of the Year for a record-setting fourth time, she announced the forthcoming release of her 11th studio album – The Tortured Poets Department.

It all begs the question – is there anything Swift can’t do?

How about selling 10 million albums in the U.S.? 

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Those were considered rookie numbers even 20 or 30 years ago, when the likes of Creed and Celine Dion could move more than 11 million albums on the back of one or two hits. 

Nowadays, those numbers are unheard of. The reasons are well-documented (Napster, Spotify, things of that nature) and it’s now been 13 years since an artist moved 10 million albums stateside. 

Could Swift make more history in that regard when her new album drops April on April 19? 

We wouldn’t bet against it. 

Odds On Taylor Swift Tortured Poets Department Album Sales In U.S.

Album salesOdds
Over 10 Million-155
Under 10 Million+130

Our betting odds have Swift favored to sell more than 10 million copies of her album in the U.S. with -155 odds, or just over a 60% chance. 

We first must clarify that these odds are based on EAS – Equivalent Album Sales – meaning that someone has purchased the album in some form like vinyl, CD, or, overwhelmingly, downloads. That’s been the standard measurement for the past eight years and provides a much better barometer of success for modern times.

This would still be a huge leap from the previous 10 studio albums, only two of which – Fearless and 1989 – have surpassed 10 million sales worldwide. Her last offering, Midnights, was released in October of 2022 and saw 3.7 million in worldwide sales to date. 

That number is key – her 2020 studio release, Evermore, only did 1.8 million in total album sales. Nearly doubling that total just two years later was a sign of things to come – and Swift hadn’t even begun to scratch the surface of her potential as a global megastar at that time. 

Swift announced the Eras Tour – her first in five years – one month after Midnights came out, setting off a two-year whirlwind of Swift Mania that’s still building momentum in early 2024. 

It’s hard to put a finger on the exact reasons Taylor Swift has been able to captivate such a massive mainstream audience, but the same could be said about Michael Jackson, Madonna, and all the once-in-a-generation pop stars. They just have ‘It.’ 

Keep in mind Swift has slowly been building this audience since her first studio release in 2006. By experimenting with all sorts of different genres and album formats, she’s been able to capture 10s of millions of new fans every year while retaining her core fanbase throughout. 

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Many fans who grew up listening to Swift now have kids of their own. Passing down music from one generation to the next is a time-honored tradition, but the major acts of the time are often obsolete 10 years later. 

Swift is more relevant than she’s ever been, providing a shared experience across generations. That’s likely what led to the record-breaking numbers for the Eras Tour, which sold an estimated 4.35 million tickets over 60 U.S. Shows. 

The average ticket price hovered around $1,000 while accounting for the secondary market. That’s a lot of fans with a lot of disposable income, for whom the Tortured Poets Department release price of $12.99 is not a concern. 

Then, of course, you have millions of Swift fans who couldn’t afford Eras Tour tickets but still want to support her. Stay tuned for the latest on Taylor Swift's endeavors by visiting our entertainment news section.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.