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Best Over/Under Bets For All 32 NFL Teams Based On Strength of Schedule & More

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 30 mins

Best Over/Under Bets For All 32 NFL Teams Based On Strength of Schedule & More

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If you're looking to get an edge as training camps open, the NFL schedule can be an invaluable tool when it comes to plotting how best to spend your NFL futures betting budget. 

Opening Night is September 7, when the Super Bowl champion Chiefs play host to the Lions. The schedule is a cheat-sheet of sorts that those won engage in NFL betting can use when seeking some value in how to best invest in over under betting.

Based on the combined records of their opponents in 2022, the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the toughest NFL schedule. Their 2022 Opponent Winning Percentage (OWP) is .566. 

No system is perfect. And gambling all about hedging risk vs. opportunity. But the schedule, the amount of travel involved, and the OWP, and other data points, are all relevant factors when analyzing the season ahead. Oddsmakers also provide some assistance with team projected win totals. 

RELATED: NFL Schedule Release: How Many Miles Will Your Team Travel?

Eagles, Patriots Have Toughest Schedules 

The Eagles’ schedule carries a double burden. For one, Philly is in the NFC East. That division will be rock fight against this year, especially with the continued development of Brian Daboll’s Giants. And Big Blue’s new-found stability at quarterback with Daniel Jones

The NFC East is matched up against the AFC East and AFC West this season. The AFC East is loaded with Buffalo, the Aaron Rodgers Jets, the Patriots on Tom Brady Day. The NFC West means trips to Seattle and the LA Rams. 

The Patriots have the toughest schedule based on the projected win total of their opponents. The Patriots brought in Bill O’Brien to run the offense this offseason after the Joe Judge-Matt Patricia debacle. Mac Jones backslid significantly in his sophomore season. 

The Atlanta Falcons have the lowest OWP of any NFL team. Their 2023 opponents had a combined .417 winning percentage. The NFC South is wide open. The entire division failed to crack .500 last season. And that was with Tom Brady as quarterback in Tampa Bay. 

Team-By-Team Projected Win Total Best Bets

Here is a look at each of the 32 NFL teams' projected win total and the best way to play it. The teams are listed in alphabetical order. They are listed with their strength of schedule rank, the 2022 winning percentage of their opponents and their projected win total. 

Arizona Cardinals 

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
11.519 4.5

Best Bet: Under 4.5 wins (-115) at FanDuel

Key Game: Week 1 at Washington. A quick look at just how ugly things will be this season.

Trap Game: None. The Cardinals will be the “trapper” – not the “trapped.”

Buzz: Arizona has the lowest projected win total in the NFL. Kyler Murray will be out for a major portion of the season. The Cardinals are in a tough division. Four non-division opponents (Giants, Dallas, Cincinnati, Baltimore) reached the playoffs last season. 

Atlanta Falcons

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
32.417 8.0

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 18 at Saints. This one could decide the NFC South, if not a playoff spot, or both.

Trap Game: Week 16 Colts. Lost amid a visit to Carolina, and homes against Chicago and New Orleans.   

Buzz: The Falcons play in wide-open NFC South. Their schedule is the softest in the NFL and they’ll be sneaking up on a lot of opponents. A .500 road record is not out of the question. 

Baltimore Ravens

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
21.484 10.5

Best Bet: Under 10.5 Wins (-142) at FanDuel

Key Game: Week 18 at Bengals. Likely a must-win for a playoff spot.

Trap Game: Week 9 Seahawks. Middling NFC West foe at home before back-to-back AFC North games.

Buzz: The Ravens are -160 to win the Division. Lamar Jackson is in the (bill) fold. But he remains an injury concern. Jackson missed the final 5 games last season, plus the Wild Card. Baltimore's final three non-divisional games this season are at Jacksonville, at San Francisco, and home against Miami. Hard to win 2 of 3 there. 

Buffalo Bills

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
7.542 10.5

Best Bet: Under 10.5 Wins (+100) at DraftKings

Key Game: Week 18 at Dolphins. Winner likely to take the AFC East.

Trap Game: Week 9 at New England. Can Buffalo’s dominance over Bill Belichick continue a week after facing Brian Daboll and the Giants? 

Buzz: Josh Allen has the "Madden 23" cover curse looming over his shoulder all season. Based on their opponents’ 2023 projected win totals, the Bills have the 4th toughest schedule this season. The Bills will be lucky to get out of the AFC East with 4 wins. Elsewhere, they visit Philadelphia, Kansas City, and the LA Chargers. Their toughest non-AFC-East game at home is Denver in Week 10. That could well be the difference here. 

Carolina Panthers

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
27.453 7.5

Best Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (+115) at DraftKings

Key Game: Week 1 at Falcons. Could this be the debut of Bryce Young

Trap Game: Week 16 Packers. Christmas Eve home game against a weak out-of-division foe comes after Round 2 against the Falcons. Attendance could be in the tens. 

Buzz: The Panthers will struggle early as Frank Reich and Young work to develop their vibe and offense. Two late season games against Tampa Bay will likely determine where this number lands. 

Chicago Bears

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
T4.549 7.5

Best Bet: Over 7.5 Wins (-118) at DraftKings

Key Game: Week 6 Vikings. If the Bears want to challenge Detroit, a win here is essential. 

Trap Game: Week 16 Cardinals. Another perilous Christmas Eve game. The hometown Bears could be a TD+ favorite. 

Buzz: The Bears could get to half of this number by sweeping their home games in the NFC North and winning just once at either Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, or Minnesota. The Bears up at home against Jordan Love and the rebuilding Packers in Week 1. Elsewhere, the Bears have very winnable games at home against Arizona and Carolina, and road appearances at Tampa Bay and Washington. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
17.453 11.5

Best Bet: Over 11.5 Wins (+110) at DraftKings

Key Game: Week 8 at 49ers. A potentials Super Bowl 58 preview offers a tough road test for Joe Burrow and the Cincy Cats. 

Trap Game: Week 10 Texans. Slips between a visit from the Bills and a trip to Baltimore.

Buzz: The Bengals travel the fewest miles of any team in the NFL this year, in addition to facing a forgiving schedule early. The Bengals want that AFC title game at home and will play like crazy to get it. Count on 4 wins in the AFC North. Three of four wins at San Francisco, home against Buffalo, at Jacksonville, and Week 17 at KC, should get this number. 

Cleveland Browns

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
26.460 9.5

Best Bet: Under 9.5 Wins (-150) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 12 at Denver: A late-season road game in hostile conditions. Beat Sean Payton in Denver and you're legit. 

Trap Game: Week 3 Titans. Easy to look past this one given that it falls between a trip to rival Pittsburgh and a visit by the Ravens.

Buzz: A steep number in terms of the juice, but the Browns are at a distant third in the AFC North and not too far away from Pittsburgh in terms of projected wins. Cleveland is a surprising +110 to reach the postseason. Cleveland will be lucky to break even in the AFC North. Not sure where they find seven more wins. 

This four-game stretch will be determinative for any hope to go over this number: 

Week 12 – at Denver

Week 13 – at Rams

Week 14 – Jaguars

Week 15 – Bears

Dallas Cowboys

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
T4.549 9.5

Best Bet: Under 9.5 Wins (-150) at FanDuel

Key Game: Week 14 Eagles. Beating the NFC champs at home is a must to have a shot in the NFC East.

Trap Game: Week 8 Rams. Dallas plays host to the rebuilding Rams after the bye, but it's a lookahead spot with a visit to Philadelphia on deck.

Buzz: The Cowboys could well be looking up at the Eagles and Giants in the NFC East all season. There’s really no substantive break in Dallas’ schedule after Week 5, so an early successful start will be critical for both reaching the playoffs and going over their total. 

A brutal four-game run starting in Week 14 will be the tell: 

Week 14 – Eagles

Week 15 – At Bills

Week 16 – At Miami

Week 17 – Detroit 

Denver Broncos

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
T12.517 9.5

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (+106) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 8 Chiefs. Denver is going to have to beat Kansas City at least once to contend in the AFC West.

Trap Game: Week 7 Packers. The Broncos play the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 6 and at home in Game 8 (above). Green Bay crashes the party in Week 7.

Buzz: Sean Payton and Russell Wilson have it easy early in the season, opening at home against Las Vegas and Washington. If Denver’s offense can find its footing early, the Broncos could surprise on the upside in the top-heavy AFC West. The final three weeks of the season all stack well for Denver, at home against New England and the Chargers, and at Las Vegas. The Broncos will be done with the Chiefs after Week 8. 

Detroit Lions

Schedule Rank Opponent Win % Projected Win Total
20.495 9.5

Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-122) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 1 at Kansas City. The Lions have been slowly stalking their NFL prey for two seasons. Now, the entire NFL nation will be watching. 

Trap Game: Week 6 Buccaneers. An unseasonably warm and humid October Sunday in Tampa Bay could declaw the Lions as they look toward Week 7 at Baltimore. 

Buzz: The Lions have the best record against the spread of any NFL team – including the postseason – since 2021. Now, Detroit needs to translate that into the win column and into a playoff run. The Lions begin the season at Kansas City. After that, their tough test is a visit to Baltimore in Week 7. Other potential losses include a trip to the LA Chargers in Week 10 and the Broncos at home in Week 15. A 5-1 record in the NFC North is entirely possible, as is an NFC North title at +150. 

Green Bay Packers

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
24.476 7.5

Best Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 4 Lions. Detroit is poised to rule the jungle that is the NFC North. The Packers and Lions are now in opposite worlds. 

Trap Game: Week 15 Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers should be out of their element in Wisconsin in mid-December. But you never know. 

Buzz: This team is in complete overhaul mode. A last-place finish in the NFC North is far more probable than not. Jordan Love is an untested commodity. A 2-5 start is not out of the question here. Take a look:

Week 1 – At Bears

Week 2 – At Falcons

Week 3 – Saints

Week 4 – Lions

Week 5 – At Raiders

Week 6 – BYE

Week 7 – At Broncos

Week 8 – Vikings

Houston Texans

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
29.434 6.5

Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 8 at Panthers. Coming off the bye, this will be solid road test that could well determine how the rest of the season will unwind.   

Trap Game: Week 17 Titans. Both teams will be out of the playoff picture, but the Texans don’t want to drop one or both of their AFC South games to close the season. 

Buzz: This is once instance where a team with a low projected win total benefits from a relatively soft schedule. The AFC South is weak. The Texans could well sweep Tennessee and Indianapolis. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud may likely have a rough first six weeks, but after the bye, the Texans should stabilize. The Texas have a legit chance to win their final four games: at Tennessee, home against Cleveland and Tennessee, and on the road at Indy. 

Indianapolis Colts

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
29.434 6.5

Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (-104) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 1 Jaguars. Anthony Richardson gets to showcase his skills in the NFL. 

Trap Game: Week 12 Buccaneers. This may be one of just a handful of times the Colts are favored all season.

Buzz: That Houston and Indianapolis fall in alphabetical order is fitting, given that their win totals are equal and they play in the same division. But these teams are headed in divergent directions. One could well break out on the upside (Houston), while the other appears headed toward a major rebuild (Indy). 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
23.477 9.5

Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-150) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 5 vs. Buffalo (London). If Jacksonville wants to take that next step as a serious AFC contender, beating the Bills in Across The Pond is vital. 

Trap Game: Week 4 vs. Falcons (London). The first of back-to-back games in London comes after AFC South clash against Houston and the above-mentioned Bills game.

Buzz: The Jaguars reached the Divisional Round last year. Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence are brimming with justified confidence heading into 2023. The Jaguars are all but assured a playoff spot in the woeful AFC South and could sweep the division. They are a pricey -170 to win the division. The Jaguars have back-to-back games in their home away from home – London – in weeks 4 and 5. One of those games is a “road” game against the Bills. Winnable games outside the AFC South include at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Tampa Bay, and home against Carolina. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
16.512 11.5

Best Bet: Under 11.5 Wins (+104) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 11 Eagles, Super Bowl 57 rematch. ‘Nuff ced. 

Trap Game: Week 15 at Patriots. The Chiefs should be the hunt for the top seed in the AFC. They will coming off a home game against Buffalo and looking ahead toward Las Vegas and Cincinnati. 

Buzz: When weighing the projected win totals of their 2023 opponents, the Chiefs have the 5th-toughest schedule in the NFL. Then there’s the Super Bowl hangover. No NFL team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since the 2003-04 Patriots. This projected win total is a game lower than last year as the Chiefs crushed the over at 14-3. A Philly-KC Super Bowl rematch comes at home Week 11, after the Chiefs’ bye. It’s unrealistic to expect another sweep of the AFC West. Think 4-2. The Bills, Cincinnati and Detroit all visit KC. KC lost to Buffalo and Cincy last year. Road tests include visits to Jacksonville and the Jets. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
10.524 6.5

Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (+108) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 1 at Denver. A tough test in Week 1 at Denver going up against Payton & Co.  

Trap Game: Week 5 Packers. The Raiders face their long-time AFC West nemesis Chargers on the road in Week 4. In Week 6, Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady, and Jimmy Garoppolo (maybe) face the Patriots and Bill Belichick. That leaves the Packers, lost amid the bright lights of Vegas. 

Buzz: The Raiders have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL based on the projected wins of their 2023 opponents. Their quarterback situation was set with Garoppolo, until it wasn’t. The Raiders, as they stand now, cannot keep pace in the AFC West. They open with 3 of 4 on the road (including the Bills home opener). Starting in Week 8, five consecutive losses loom heading into the bye: at Detroit, home against the Giants and Jets in back-to-back weeks, a visit to Miami, and the Chiefs at home.

Los Angeles Chargers

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
T12.517 9.5

Best Bet: Under 9.5 Wins (+108) at FanDuel 

Key Game: Week 9 at NY Jets. Looking outside the obvious (Chiefs at home in Week 18), this game tests the Chargers’ ability to play well on the road in what should be a hostile outdoor environment. Far from the quiet, climate-controlled environs of SoFi Stadium. 

Trap Game: Week 8 Bears. Justin Fields and the Midgets of the Midway visit SoFi in Week 8 between Chargers games at Kansas City and the Jets (see above). 

Buzz: The Chargers are another AFC West team with iron up and down the schedule. Theirs is the 7th toughest when weighed against their opponents’ 2023 projected win totals. A four-game run featuring games at Dallas, at KC, at home against Chicago and the Jets will determine how this number falls. The season closes with three potential losses at home against Buffalo, at Denver, and home against the Chiefs. 

Los Angeles Rams

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
9.533 6.5

Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-102) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 11 Seattle. The Rams will be coming off the bye and should be ready to beat their division foe,

Trap Game: Week 6 Cardinals. Arizona could make a run at 0-17. The Rams have three straight home games here: Philadelphia, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. 

Buzz: The Rams open with a pair of NFC West opponents (at the Seahawks and home against the 49ers). Week 3 offers a Super Bowl 56 rematch at Cincinnati, followed by a visit to Indianapolis and a home game against the Super Bowl 57 runner-up Eagles. If the Rams can escape that gauntlet with two wins, that will bode well for this number. They should be able to get five wins the rest of the way. A sweep of Arizona is doable, as are home wins against Pittsburgh, Seattle, Washington, and a win at Green Bay. 

Miami Dolphins

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
2.554 9.5

Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-110) at FanDuel  

Key Game: At Kansas City Week 9. This game falls on the wrong side of the bye for the Dolphins, who have a tough slog in the first half of the season. A road win against the Super Bowl champ propels Miami into the AFC hunt. 

Trap Game: Week 6 Carolina. An expected pushover NFC South opponent falls between visits by the Giants and a trip to Philadelphia. 

Buzz: The AFC East is matched up against the AFC West and NFC East. It’s not surprising the Dolphins have the second-toughest schedule when weighing opponents’ 2022 winning percentages and the third toughest when using their opponents’ projected 2023 win totals. Either way, there’s little wiggle room for the aquatic mammals. A 4-2 record in the AFC East is reasonable. Where do you get six more wins? Miami opens with 3 of 4 on the road. But In Week 3, the untested Broncos visit sultry, hot, and humid South Florida. Elsewhere, non-divisional wins are likely at home against Carolina (Week 6), Las Vegas (Week 11), at Washington (Week 13), and home against Tennessee (Week 14). This means Miami will have to steal one against Dallas at home in Week 16 or at Baltimore in Week 17. Or upset the host Chargers in Week 1. 

Minnesota Vikings 

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
19.497 8.5

Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (+116) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 7 49ers. The Vikings face several major tests in the first two months of the season. This is a home game they need to over a co-favorite in the NFC to reach the Super Bowl.

Trap Game: Week 17 Green Bay. The Vikings get the under-repair Packers at home between a pair of games against NFC North favorite Detroit. 

Buzz: This is a value play. The Vikings won 11 one-score games last season and finished 13-5. Figure a split in one-score games in most cases, and they fall to 7-10. A 3-3 finish in the NFC North, plus projected losses at the Eagles (Week 2), Kansas City at home (Week 5), at San Francisco (Week 7), at Denver (Week 11), and at Cincinnati (Week 15) leave no room for error elsewhere. 

New England Patriots 

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
3.549 7.5

Best Bet: Over 7.5 Wins (+116) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 5 Saints. Huh? If you expect the Patriots to beat this number, this is exactly the type of game they need to win. Out-of-conference opponent at home.

Trap Game: Week 9 Washington: This one should be pushover. But it comes after a trip to Dallas and ahead of the Blood Revenge Bowl in Las Vegas. 

Buzz: The Patriots have the toughest schedule in the NFL based on their opponents’ projected win totals. The Patriots have not won a playoff game since Super Bowl 53. The AFC East is stacked, and the Patriots have the lowest projected win total of any team in the division. But Bill Belichick (or Robert Kraft) brought in Bill O’Brien to salvage what may be left of Mac Jones’ career. The Patriots defense will always be there. 

Think 2-4 in the AFC East. The Patriots get the Jets at home in Week 18 and you just know Gang Green is going to blow it with a playoff berth on the line.

And take six of seven here: 

Week 1 – Philly (Tom Brady Day. The Hoodie will treat this one like the Super Bowl with Robert Kraft watching in the owner's box along side his sons: Jonathan Kraft, Brady, and Jon Bon Jovi.) (PS: We reserve the right to change this one if Brady ends up coming back with the Bucs.) 

Week 5 – Saints 

Week 6 – at Las Vegas (Belichick game-planning for revenge against McDaniels while Brady watches from the owner’s box)

Week 9 – Commanders

Week 10 – Colts 

Week 13 – Chargers (West Coast team on a 1 p.m. EST start)

Week 14 – at Pittsburgh 

New Orleans Saints

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
31.427 9.5

Best Bet: Under 9.5 Wins (-148) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 13 Detroit. The Saints could well be facing the Lions in the playoffs. Regardless, this will be a test for the home team to see where it stands against the best teams in the NFC.

Trap Game: Week 9 Chicago. The Saints need to be wary when the Bears visit the Crescent City.

Buzz: A pricey number. The Saints brought in Derek Carr for some stability at QB. And their schedule is overall the softest in football. But 10 wins is a high bar here. The NFC South is going to be a rock fight between the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints. The Saints will need to go 4-2 in the division if they hope to get to double-digit wins. 

New York Giants

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
T4.549 7.5

Best Bet: Over 7.5 Wins (-106) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 8 Jets. The Giants are the "home" team against their co-tenants at Met-Life Stadium. Winner gets Big Apple Bragging rights. 

Trap Game: Week 7 Washington. Normally, games within your own division cannot be classified as trap games. But this one is stuck between Brial Daboll's return to Buffalo and a hostile environment and the aforementioned Jets game. 

Buzz: The oddsmakers whiffed here. The Giants’ schedule is tough, but so are they. Daboll’s team is built to win in the same way as those teams coached by Tom Coughlin and Bill Parcells. That makes sense Daboll descends from the Parcells coaching lineage through Belichick. The Giants’ road games are bunched in twos and threes, but each includes one likely win. The Giants will hold their own in the NFC East. A 3-1 start is more than doable and would be a springboard to hitting this number.  

New York Jets

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
6.545 9.5

Best Bet: Under 9.5 Wins (-104) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 4 Chiefs. This is a tough call given Gang Green's schedule out of the AFC East. But the champs are the champs, so Patrick Mahomes vs Aaron Rodgers gets our vote.  

Trap Game:  Week 16 Washington. There are some potential potholes late in the season. But this one has all the elements of a holiday turkey. It will be played on Christmas Eve against against a non-conference foe likely out of the playoffs. 

Buzz: It's a "Hard Knocks" life for Rodgers, who has arrived to save Gotham City. But the Jets are still the Jets until they aren't. Trying to hit double-digit wins in the AFC East is going to be tough for any team but the Bills. There will be no honeymoon for Rodgers. The Jets open with a six-game brutal stretch that will tell us a lot. Keep an eye on any dysfunction on HBO next month. 

Take a look:

Week 1 – Bills

Week 2 – at Cowboys

Week 3 – Patriots

Week 4 – Chiefs

Week 5 – at Broncos

Week 6 – Eagles

Rodgers’ pleas for calm, patience, and Zen won’t play on Broadway if the Jets open 2-4. 

Or worse. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
1.566 11.5

Best Bet: Under 11.5 Wins (-134) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 11 at Chiefs. Super Bowl rematch. 'Nuff said. 

Trap Game: Week 1 at Patriots: This line hovers around Philly -5.5. The Eagles played in Super Bowl 57. The Patriots have not won a playoff game since Super Bowl 53. But this is Tom Brady Day in Foxboro. 

Buzz: The Eagles have the toughest schedule in the NFL based on their opponents’ winning percentage last season. The NFC East is stacked, as noted. The Eagles have as many as 7 likely wins ahead of their Week 10 bye. But the later half of the schedule is fierce. It begins with four straight rock fights. 

Take a look:

Week 11 – At Chiefs (Super Bowl rematch) 

Week 12 – Bills

Week 13 – 49ers

Week 14 – At Dallas 

The Eagles don’t face the Giants until Week 16. Look for a split in Weeks 16 and 18 around a win over Arizona. This number could well hinge on whether or not the Patriots stun the universe on Brady Day in Week 1. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
25.470 8.5

Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (-134) at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 17 at Seahawks. Looking outside the AFC North, the Steelers visit Seattle in Week 17. If the team harbors any hopes of an AFC Wild Card berth, a win on the road in miserable, wet, and loud conditions in the Pacific Northwest is critical. 

Trap Game: Week 13 Arizona. The Steelers will be coming off a visit to Cincinnati in Week 12 and play host to their long-time rival New England in Week 14. The woeful Cardinals occupy the unlucky Week 13 slot. 

Buzz: Pittsburgh could conceivably be 1-4 heading into the early bye. Kenny Pickett will be battling the Sophomore Jinx (see Mac Jones) and won’t be surprising anyone. Factoring 3 wins in the AFC North (generous), it’s hard to find six more wins on the schedule. 

San Francisco 49ers

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
15.514 10.5

Best Bet: Over 10.5 Wins (-142)  at FanDuel  

Key Game: Week 9 Cincinnati: This Super Bowl 58 preview comes a week ahead of the bye and will offer the truest test on how the 49ers might fare against the AFC's best in February. 

Trap Game: Week 17 at Washington. A trip to the East Coast and a New Year's Eve game sandwiched between a visit from Baltimore. and what could likely be a home-field clincher against the Rams.  

Buzz: The 49ers are the trendy pick to reach out of the NFC. The first-round by is crucial and that will be their regular-season goal. The schedule offers no extraordinary opponents. The 49ers open with two winnable games on the road (at Pittsburgh and the LA Rams). They also get the Giants and Cowboys at home. A split there is realistic. 

Seattle Seahawks 

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
T12.517 8.5

Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (+116) at FanDuel   

Key Game: Week 13 at Dallas: The Seahawks were a terrific tease for fans and bettors last season. If they're showing any sings of legitimacy and growth, it will be manifested at Jerry World. 

Trap Game: Week 3 Carolina. Again, we're discounting Arizona since it's an NFC West opponent. The Seahawks will face Carolina and rookie QB Bryce Young at home early in the season in between trips to Detroit and MetLife to face the Giants. 

Buzz: The Seahawks have the toughest schedule in the NFL when it comes to travel. They could cover up to 31,600 miles and traverse through 36 time zones. That’s thanks to 4 trips to the Eastern Time Zone. The toughest part of the schedule comes late in the season with back-to-back games at Dallas (Week 13) and San Francisco (Thanksgiving Day Night), followed by a home contest against the Eagles. Meanwhile, Geno Smith won’t have the luxury of surprising opposing defenses this season. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
22.483 6.5

Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (+116) at FanDuel    

Key Game: Week 6 Detroit. The Buccaneers are bringing back the Creamsickle uniforms and could catch the Cats looking ahead to their visit to Baltimore. There's always hurricane season. 

Trap Game: Week 10 Tennessee (see below). There aren't many opportunities for trap games when this team is likely to be underdog most most weeks. The Bucs could well be looking ahead toward a visit to San Francisco in Week 11. 

Buzz: The Buccaneers enter the post-Tom Brady era with Baker Mayfield taking over at quarterback. Or maybe not. Either way, Tampa Bay’s defense will keep this team competitive in the still-lacking NFC South. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are back, as well. Seven wins will be a challenge, but given the transition happening elsewhere in the division, it appears you may see the entire division go 3-3 against each other. Need four more wins? 

How about:

Week 9 – at Texans

Week 10 – Titans 

Week 12 – At Colts

Week 15 – At Packers 

Tennessee Titans

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
28.448 7.5

Best Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (-128) at FanDuel     

Key Game: Week 6 Baltimore. An early-season test against a top-tier AFC team at home. If the Titans are going to surprise on the upside, they'll win this low-scoring affair. 

Trap Game: Week 8 Falcons. This game comes after the bye and the above-mentioned visit by the Ravens. 

Buzz: Here’s one instance where the strength of schedule – or lack thereof – isn’t going to matter. The Titans collapsed last season and did little this offseason to end the slide. The goal of this season will be to develop rookie QB Will Levis for the future. Mike Vrabel will be among the candidates on the "First Coach Fired in 2023" list. Not even the AFC South may save the Titans. 

Washington Commanders

Schedule Rank Opponent Win %Projected Win Total
8.535 6.5

Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel     

Key Game: Week 5 Chicago. The Commanders are projected to be 1-3 at this point. A win here could help reset the season. A loss, and look for Ron Rivera to be among the NFL coaching departed. 

Trap Game: Week 6 At Atlanta. A relatively competitive out-of-conference foe on the road comes before back-to-back at the Giants at home against the Eagles. 

Buzz: The Commanders expect to compete in the NFC East with Sam Howell as their starting QB. Washington won just one game after November 27 last season, and that was a meaningless contest against Dallas in Week 18 with most of the Cowboys’ starters on the bench. Don’t let an easy win at home against Arizona in Week 1 fool you this time.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.