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Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans Odds, Best Bets & Picks

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans Odds, Best Bets & Picks

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Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans on the Week 11 edition of Thursday Night Football, a clash of playoff hopefuls looking to build momentum for the stretch run. 

The Packers (4-6) snapped a five-game skid by beating the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. The AFC South-leading Titans (7-3) rebounded from a loss to edge the Broncos 17-10. 

RELATED: Best Same Game Parlays + Bets for Packers vs. Titans

Despite the records, Green Bay is favored by three points at online sportsbooks in the latest Titans vs. Packers odds, down from -4.5 earlier in the week. The Over/Under is set at 41 points. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who hit on 59.3% of his NFL best bets this season, and 62-64% of his NFL best bets in each of the last three years – reveals his plays for the marquee prime-time matchup. 

Titans vs. Packers Point Spread Pick

Tennessee has covered each of its last seven games and every game vs. teams with a losing record. The Titans’ momentum dipped the line to -3 by Wednesday. We find out here if the Packers are back or if last week’s win over the Cowboys was an anomaly. Bettors are on the side of the anomaly. 

I’m not. Statistically and in terms of matchups, the Packers have enough edges. That it’s at Lambeau makes a big difference, and that it’s on Thursday helps; the Packers are on a 6-1-1 ATS run on TNF. Laying a field goal is a contrarian play that could pay off and be the top bet of the night. 

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Titans vs. Packers Over/Under Best Bet

As much as we like to think the Titans have Henry and should be strong offensively, the fact is they’ve scored 17 points in each of the last three games, and no higher than 24 in any game. The Packers hadn’t gone over 22 points in five straight games until going for 31 vs. the Cowboys last week. That makes a total of 41.5 points seem high. 

But it’s low. Green Bay averages 23.4 ppg at home compared to 13.6 on the road. While the Packers are a run-to-pass team, Tennessee ranks dead-last vs. the throw, and Aaron Rodgers is starting to gain confidence in his WRs. Green Bay ranks No. 1 vs. the pass but is bottom-six vs. the run, perfect for the Titans’ plans. Both teams should score. Go with the Over on Thursday as the secondary pick. 

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Titans vs. Packers Moneyline Pick

Green Bay is -165 on the moneyline at betting apps, meaning it would take a $165 bet on the Packers to win $100 in profit. Tennessee is at +140. 

We’re siding with the favored Packers against the spread, but would it shock anyone if Henry and the Titans prevail? Henry has an edge, and while Rodgers and Green Bay have their own advantages, the moneyline price is higher than we prefer. Stick with the spread and the total. 

Best Titans vs. Packers Player Props

Derrick Henry, Over 96.5 Rushing Yards & Score A TD

Odds: +196 at DraftKings

Henry gets as many carries as he can handle for the Titans, and the more he runs, the better Tennessee is (6-1 when he gets 19-plus runs, 0-2 when he doesn’t). He also has nine TDs in nine games. 

Only the Texans have allowed more rush yards to RBs than the Packers. Green Bay has limited them to only five TDs, but Tennessee won’t stop feeding the beast until he hits paydirt. At least once, we expect it. 

Aaron Rodgers, Over 1.5 TDs

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Rodgers has gone from two-time defending MVP to game manager in a new RPO offense. But he still finds paydirt through the air. Rodgers has at least two TD passes in seven of the last nine games and is coming off his first 3/0 TD/INT game of the year.  

No team allows more pass yards than the Titans and they also give up 1.8 pass TDs per game. Opposing QBs have two-plus scores in six instances. Expect a seventh here. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.
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