Tennessee has covered each of its last seven games and every game vs. teams with a losing record. The Titans’ momentum dipped the line to -3 by Wednesday. We find out here if the Packers are back or if last week’s win over the Cowboys was an anomaly. Bettors are on the side of the anomaly. 

I’m not. Statistically and in terms of matchups, the Packers have enough edges. That it’s at Lambeau makes a big difference, and that it’s on Thursday helps; the Packers are on a 6-1-1 ATS run on TNF. Laying a field goal is a contrarian play that could pay off and be the top bet of the night. 

As much as we like to think the Titans have Henry and should be strong offensively, the fact is they’ve scored 17 points in each of the last three games, and no higher than 24 in any game. The Packers hadn’t gone over 22 points in five straight games until going for 31 vs. the Cowboys last week. That makes a total of 41.5 points seem high. 

But it’s low. Green Bay averages 23.4 ppg at home compared to 13.6 on the road. While the Packers are a run-to-pass team, Tennessee ranks dead-last vs. the throw, and Aaron Rodgers is starting to gain confidence in his WRs. Green Bay ranks No. 1 vs. the pass but is bottom-six vs. the run, perfect for the Titans’ plans. Both teams should score. Go with the Over on Thursday as the secondary pick. 

Green Bay is -165 on the moneyline at betting apps, meaning it would take a $165 bet on the Packers to win $100 in profit. Tennessee is at +140. 

We’re siding with the favored Packers against the spread, but would it shock anyone if Henry and the Titans prevail? Henry has an edge, and while Rodgers and Green Bay have their own advantages, the moneyline price is higher than we prefer. Stick with the spread and the total. 

Derrick Henry, Over 96.5 Rushing Yards & Score A TD

Odds: +196 at DraftKings

Henry gets as many carries as he can handle for the Titans, and the more he runs, the better Tennessee is (6-1 when he gets 19-plus runs, 0-2 when he doesn’t). He also has nine TDs in nine games. 

Only the Texans have allowed more rush yards to RBs than the Packers. Green Bay has limited them to only five TDs, but Tennessee won’t stop feeding the beast until he hits paydirt. At least once, we expect it. 

Aaron Rodgers, Over 1.5 TDs

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Rodgers has gone from two-time defending MVP to game manager in a new RPO offense. But he still finds paydirt through the air. Rodgers has at least two TD passes in seven of the last nine games and is coming off his first 3/0 TD/INT game of the year.  

No team allows more pass yards than the Titans and they also give up 1.8 pass TDs per game. Opposing QBs have two-plus scores in six instances. Expect a seventh here.